This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks: Best Player Player Props For Week 5
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Anytime Player Touchdown Props
Dalton Kincaid +250 (FanDuel), Dawson Knox +350 FanDuel
If you're not a Bills or Jaguars fan you'll need some reason to get up early Sunday morning and having an anytime touchdown scorer can be your reason why. I realize this is hedging, but taking both players is returning better than even money or your wagers. The upside is both can score and the Jaguars being 28th against the position makes this bet even more sensible. The two have combined for 30 targets through the first four games and six of those have been in the red zone. Knox scored in six of his last seven games last season so there's clearly a rapport between Josh Allen and his tight ends.
Jordan Addison +260 (FanDuel), K.J. Osborn +330 (FanDuel)
This game has an over/under of 53 so a shootout is expected. The Vikings don't have a good defense, which means that Kirk Cousins is going to have to throw a lot to keep the game close. I like taking both players here as Justin Jefferson will command a lot of attention and Cousins should have the time to throw downfield to both of these players. Osborn has two touchdowns as does Addison, which makes these lines seem like easy pickings. Take both and hope that each player hits.
Dallas Goedert +260 (FanDuel)
This is a nice line considering it's only +225 in other spots. Goedert is long overdue for a touchdown and this game has a healthy over/under of 50.5 with the Eagles being four-point favorites. A.J. Brown went off last game and the presence of DeVonta Smith means there should be room over the middle for Goedert to work. Looking at some stats, Goedert has had four tough matchups with every team he's faced being fourth, sixth, 12th and 14th against the position for fantasy purposes. The Rams are the easiest matchup Goedert has had with a ranking of 22nd against opposing tight ends. I like taking his anytime touchdown odds and parlaying them with the alternate receiving yards of 60+, which can be found on DraftKings for +700.
Player Props
C.J. Stroud Under 247.5 Passing Yards
Count me among being a member of the Stroud fan club and I hate recommending this prop, but I'm thinking with my head and not my heart. Atlanta is home and is a run-heavy team, meaning this game should be low-scoring. The Falcons defense should keep Houston's passing attack and outside of Week 1 against Baltimore, this is the best pass defense Stroud has faced. If you can find a prop for Stroud throwing an interception, I'd take that, too.
Jaylen Waddle Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel, -115 DraftKings)
I'm guessing either the yardage line or odds moves over the course of the weekend leading up to the game and I'd wait and take the one that's better. Waddle appears to be over his concussion issues and the Giants are a disaster right now on both sides of the ball. Waddle has exactly four receptions in all three games he's played this season and has hit this over in two of those three contests. The Giants rank 12th against the position and Waddle should surpass both his snaps played and routes run. I can see this over hitting before the fourth quarter starts.
Joe Burrow Over 247.5 Passing Yards -114 (FanDuel)
Is Joe not 100 percent? Yes. Has he had a few bad matchups to start the season? Yes. Will he get things right in this matchup? Yes. Has Burrow faced the third, fourth, eighth and 12th-best defenses against the quarterback position thus far? Yes. This ends Sunday when the Bengals have the best matchup Burrow has faced thus far against the Cardinals, who rank 27th against quarterbacks. Arizona has a decent team and being at home they should keep this a competitive game with Burrow still throwing in the second half.
