This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks: Best Player Props For Week 9
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Anytime Player Touchdowns
Raheem Mostert, MIA -105 Caesars
Mostert has been a touchdown machine this season with 12 touchdowns this season, 10 on the ground and two through the air. He's scored in two of three games that De'Von Achane has missed and six out of eight games. Kansas City ranks 10th against opposing running backs, but this game has the over/under at 50.5 suggesting a high-scoring affair.
Kareem Hunt +170 Caesars
Every book has Jerome Ford worse anytime touchdown odds and Hunt can be found on other prominent sites at only +120 or +125. Ford is supposedly over an ankle injury but it's tough to think Hunt won't have a similar amount of touches as he will. Hunt has scored in three straight games and may have claimed the goal-line back role and it's a great matchup against the Cardinals, who rank 30th against opposing running backs. Look for Pierre Strong to play third fiddle to both of these players.
Joe Mixon -110 Caesars
Besides the Miami/Kansas City game this is the other game with a big over/under (50.5) this week. Mixon is as high as -160 on other sites so there appears to be some value here. Buffalo ranks 23rd against opposing running backs and that stat includes the first 4.5 games top tackler Matt Milano was playing. I'd also sprinkle a little on 2+ touchdowns for Mixon, which can be found on Caesars at +480 – 3+ is +2200.
Player Props
Bijan Robinson Over 23.5 Receiving Yards -119 Caesars
Bijan has exactly zero receiving yards the last two weeks and hopefully that's why this line seems low. Two weeks ago he played only 10 offensive snaps and last week, while he didn't record a catch, he had five targets. In his first six games he averaged 31.5 receiving yards per game and hit this over in five of those six contests. Here's my favorite prop of the week; note that some sites didn't have a line up for this yet as of Saturday morning so as always, shop around.
Davante Adams Over 70.5 Receiving Yards -114 FanDuel
Bijan is my favorite prop of the week but Adams is a close second. I subscribe to the theory that a team bounces back when an "unliked" coach is fired and they play harder for the new guy. The Raiders are a two-point favorite at home and likely made the wise decision to go to Aidan O'Connell and are benching Jimmy Garoppolo. This seems like a sucker bet with Adams not hitting the over for this mark in any of his last four games, but the Giants are a better than league-average matchup for him. I can see doing a Same Game Parlay on FanDuel with an anytime touchdown for Adams, over 70.5 receiving yards, 6+ catches and the Raiders winning for +540. There's also a 50% profit boost that could be used to bring this number up to +811.
Justin Herbert Under 248.5 Passing Yards
Herbert and the Chargers travel to New York to take on the Jets on Monday Night Football. New York is almost dead middle in the league against opposing quarterbacks so this isn't a really good or really bad matchup for Herbert. However, the Jets have faced some elite quarterbacks at home this season and here's their results with passing yardage:
Josh Allen: 236
Mac Jones: 201
Patrick Mahomes: 203
Jalen Hurts: 280
As you can see, the Jets have been pretty successful against opposing quarterbacks. While it's tough to believe, those quarterbacks combined for eight interceptions with Mac Jones having zero of those. I think Herbert stays under this number by a lot, even though I dislike taking the under on any bet.
