This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Week 6 was a poor one for the staff as Erickson won it at 7-6 to get to .500, and everyone else went down from there.
This week is bizarre as four writers (everyone except Stopa) picked the Bucs (who just got destroyed at home last week) as their best bet over the Rams (who just beat the Chargers at home). I understand why the Bucs are a good buy-low, but I only made them my best bet because I used them in East Coast Offense on Tuesday (and my record there is always better than my best-bet record, so I've stopped changing it). And I only used them in East Coast Offense because I have to make the pick on Tuesday night, and at that point, I just try to pick one game that I know I won't want to change later. In other words, it's not necessarily my best bet - it's just one bet that I can see myself sticking with.
So it's really strange to see three other writers settle on the Bucs as well.
| Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
| Browns +13 at Saints | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns |
| Jaguars +7* at Chiefs | Chiefs | Jaguars | Jaguars | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Eagles +3 at Titans | Titans | Titans | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Bengals +3.5 at Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Bengals | Falcons | Falcons |
| Redskins +3 at Bears | Redskins | Redskins | Bears | Redskins | Bears |
| Steelers -3 at Dolphins | Dolphins | Steelers | Dolphins | Steelers | Steelers |
| Rams +2.5 at Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Rams | Buccaneers |
| Bills +13.5 |
Week 6 was a poor one for the staff as Erickson won it at 7-6 to get to .500, and everyone else went down from there.
This week is bizarre as four writers (everyone except Stopa) picked the Bucs (who just got destroyed at home last week) as their best bet over the Rams (who just beat the Chargers at home). I understand why the Bucs are a good buy-low, but I only made them my best bet because I used them in East Coast Offense on Tuesday (and my record there is always better than my best-bet record, so I've stopped changing it). And I only used them in East Coast Offense because I have to make the pick on Tuesday night, and at that point, I just try to pick one game that I know I won't want to change later. In other words, it's not necessarily my best bet - it's just one bet that I can see myself sticking with.
So it's really strange to see three other writers settle on the Bucs as well.
| Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
| Browns +13 at Saints | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns |
| Jaguars +7* at Chiefs | Chiefs | Jaguars | Jaguars | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Eagles +3 at Titans | Titans | Titans | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Bengals +3.5 at Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Bengals | Falcons | Falcons |
| Redskins +3 at Bears | Redskins | Redskins | Bears | Redskins | Bears |
| Steelers -3 at Dolphins | Dolphins | Steelers | Dolphins | Steelers | Steelers |
| Rams +2.5 at Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Rams | Buccaneers |
| Bills +13.5 at Ravens | Ravens | Bills | Bills | Ravens | Bills |
| 49ers -3 at Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers |
| Cardinals +5.5 at Seahawks | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Seahawks | Cardinals |
| Raiders +8.5 at Broncos | Raiders | Raiders | Broncos | Raiders | Broncos |
| Patriots +3 at Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers |
| Vikings +3 at Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers |
| Giants +3 at Cowboys | Giants | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Best Bet | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Falcons | Buccaneers |
| Last Week's Record | 7-6-1 | 4-9-1 | 5-8-1 | 6-7-1 | 6-7-1 |
| 2010 Record | 43-43-4 | 45-41-4 | 44-42-4 | 50-36-4 | 46-40-4 |
| Best Bet Record | 1-5 | 2-3-1 | 3-3 | 4-1-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Consensus Pick Record | 14-10-1 | ||||
| 2009 Record | 123-130-3 | 132-121-3 | 131-122-3 | 130-123-3 | 126-127-3 |
| 2008 Record | 132-114-10 | 128-118-10 | 124-122-10 | 125-121-10 | 130-116-10 |
| 2007 Record | 127-120 | 118-129 | 127-120 | N/A | 130-117 |
| 2006 Record | 118-129 | N/A | 139-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2005 Record | 121-126 | N/A | 127-120 | N/A | N/A |
| 2004 Record | 124-124 | N/A | 130-118 | N/A | N/A |
| 2003 Record | 121-126 | 118-129 | 124-123 | N/A | N/A |
| 2002 Record | 113-136 | 123-126 | 141-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2001 Record | 124-113 | 117-120 | 118-119 | N/A | N/A |
| 2000 Record | 123-117 | 134-106 | 141-99 | N/A | N/A |
Consensus Picks
This week we have four consensus picks: the Browns, Panthers, Chargers and Packers.
Last week we went 0-1 on consensus picks, putting us at 14-10-1 on the year. We finished 2009 at 19-23-1 on consensus picks, and were 24-19-2 on them in 2008.
Comments:
| Writer | Comment |
| Erickson | The Bucs aren't as bad as they looked last week and the Rams aren't as good as they looked. |
| Pianowski | Ping-pong, zig-zag theory makes Tampa a clear play, especially considering they're asked to give less than three... The oddsmakers didn't do any favors to those who want to back the Chargers and Cowboys, but I'll take the sucker side anyway. Desperation has traditionally been a greet motivator, and the yardage stats suggest these are decent teams. |
| Liss | I like all the teams that have the talent and move the ball but just haven't gotten it done so far. It's annoying to keep losing with them, but I think you have to keep going back to the well. |
| Stopa | My hot streak came to a crashing thud last week, and it coincided with me thinking more and fading the public less. Let's go back to fading the public and buy low on the Chargers, Packers, Panthers and Cowboys... The Saints opened as 15 point favorites, yet it's now below 14 even though the public is on the Saints. We all know what that means - the sharps are on the Browns; hence, so am I... Can somebody find me a prop bet for Brian Orapko being NFC Defensive Player of the Week? Please? It's the perfect storm - he's awesome, the Bears don't try to protect the passer, and Cutler plays like there's a clause in his contract where he gets bonuses for every hit he takes... I like the Steelers, Rams and Eagles because they're better than their opponents (Dolphins, Bucs, and Titans, respectively). When the lines are 3 or less, don't overthink it - just take the better team (sort of like Jets/Broncos last week)... The Falcons opened as 4.5 point favorites. I'd have probably taken them at that, and now it's down to 3. Is Vegas really that down on them after a road loss to Philly? That's the best value on the board... I struggled with Ravens/Bills. I wanted to go ugly and fade the public, but it's less than 14, and the Bills can't stop the run and can't hold anyone under 30 points. I also struggled with KC/Jax, not just because there's "no line" at present, but the Jags are tough to figure - good enough to beat Indy, but an embarassing home blowout on Monday night. I think the Chiefs are better than people realize, so I'd take them at -6 or better. |
| Del Don | I usually struggle with games that are three point spreads, so so it's safe to say I'm not all that confident with this week's slate. I'm not happy backing nine favorites, either. |
The players:
- Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Value Meter. Covers and roots for the Bengals.
- Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.
- Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes Beating the Book and Surviving the Week in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.
- Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, Writes Working the Wire. Roots for the Bills.
- Dalton Del Don: RotoWire Senior Staff Writer. 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Game Capsules and the Barometer. Covers the Eagles and roots for the 49ers.
