This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
It is the final week of Quarter 3 in the Circa Sports Million contest. The pick counts for the top five teams are high with six teams on bye.
49ers -3 at 
Eagles, 1925 picks, 1092 net -- Nobody believes in the 10-1 Eagles! Circa also runs a "Friday Invitational" that pits prominent gambling pros against each other with a "guillotine" element that knocks out one of the players each week. They chose wagers on seven NFL and/or CFB games and can use spreads or totals. Only 15 total pickers remain, and seven of them took the Niners, vs not even one on the Eagles. The Birds keep winning despite underwhelming numbers for a 10-1 squad. The Niners sit at "only" 10-3, but save for an injury-plagued mini-slump they have smoked everyone. DVOA has them 2nd at 39.7 percent, with Philly 9th at 15.6 percent (0 is league average). ESPN FPI has the Niners tops at 9.5 and the Eagles 7th at 6.4 (again, 0 is league average). Philly has not been outdone in their toughest matchups vs the Cowboys, Bills and Chiefs so much as they have played close to even and either hit all the big plays, like 59 yard game tying field goals' in the rain, while the opponents just have not. If Gabe Davis looks for the ball a split second sooner last week, if MVS does not drop a late TD pass in Week 11 in Kansas City and if the Cowboys do not miss a 2 pointer by inches in Week 9, the Eagles sit at 7-4 no matter their "clutch" gene. So yeah, I get the case for the Niners as small favorites. Mean reversion just suggests the Eagles will lose as many close games as they win, over time, and the NFL is Small Sample Size Theater. Of course if you buy the case the Niners are clearly better, it might not be close. We will go "Joe" here with the Eagles on our card. And hey, there is this; home dogs with a total 45 or greater are 16-4-2 this season as per our historical NFL odds.
Broncos +3.5 at 
Texans, 1739 picks, 828 net -- I doubt many had this as a key game in the playoff race on their bingo card. CJ Stroud has lit up the scoreboard and the Texans have far exceeded preseason expectations, but yet somehow Houston has only gone 5-6 ATS and just 2-4 at home. Between the line edge with the "hook" in the contest vs the +3 actual spread and the Broncos recent hot run, we will ride with Denver.
Rams -3.5 vs 
Browns, 1516 picks, 784 net -- Does a 38-year-old Joe Flacco still have it? Cleveland starting QBs remain as cursed as Spinal Tap drummers. The Browns will now send out their 4th different 1st team passer this year and approximately the 417th since the franchise returned to the NFL in 1999. Meanwhile the Rams have generally played well with a healthy Matthew Stafford. The Cleveland' defense has looked great, but with Myles Garrett a bit banged up they slipped a bit vs the Broncos last week and may start falling into the Jets syndrome where a stout D just runs out of gas carrying a bad offense week after week. Plus the Rams have a shade of line value with the spread now -4. We join the masses on this one.
Lions -4.5 at 
Saints 1371 picks, 373 net -- More road chalk! The Saints have a banged up receiving corps and a bad offense even with everyone healthy. The Lions come in with extra rest having last played on Thanksgiving. 
Steelers -5.5 vs 
Cardinals, 1305 picks, 432 net -- I am old enough to remember the Steelers unable to put 400 yards of offense on the board or even outgain their opponents, while the Cardinals were the plucky "bad" team that gave everyone fits. Those eras apparently ended two weeks ago. The line moved up to -6.5, so that likely played a bigger part of the popularity here.
We went 4-1 last week and now sit at 32-27-1 overall and 10-5 in Q3, improving but not in line to cash anywhere. We will hopefully continue our ascent up the leaderboard with the Eagles, Rams, Broncos, Colts -1 at the Titans and Falcons -2 at the Jets.
Week 12 Review
Circa Million players stayed hot, hitting at a season-high 57.65 percent clip and bumping their overall mark up to 51.96 percent.
The top five picks went 4-1, and the consensus choices overall were 12-4. Adding up the picks on the consensus side hit at a crisp 79.27 percent and bumped the overall to 54.88 percent.
Sounds like a great week to have tailed the picks? Yes, but four of the games had played already before we even saw the breakdown. Three of those four -- the Cowboys, 49ers and Dolphins -- covered. Further, of the remaining picks, many had stale lines by Saturday night's pick reveal, including the Steelers -1, Bills +3.5 and the Rams at pick em'. The Steelers and Rams covered anyway, but the Bills closed at either +3 with extra juice or +2.5 with lower juice and thus covered in the pool but pushed at best for actual bettors.
Contestants continue to love the chalk, especially the home variety. Favorites are the choice 65.33 percent of the time overall, and 69.43 percent of the time in friendly surroundings.
Follow the Leaders
The leaders performed pretty much on par with the pool as a whole. The top 11 after Week 11 went a combined 33-22, or exactly 60 percent.
Of this group, all but two have multiple entries in the contest. Steve Fezzik (FEZZIC-2) has the maximum five entries while the others have either two or three. The pool has an overlay of $730K, so just entering gives players an expected "win." That edge mostly goes away however when you live outside of Nevada and need to pay a proxy to enter your picks each week.
Multiple entries clearly adds potential variation to the cards, with the goal of spiking at least one of them. And that is exactly what Fezzik has accomplished. FEZZIC-2 sits in 2nd at 42-15-3. The other entries check in at 34-23-3, 29-28-3, 29-29-2 and 27-32-1.
