This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 12
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are three, seven, six, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
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NFL Week 12 Odds
Week 12 Schedule
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions -7.5 O/U 46.5 OPENED LIONS -4.0/44.0
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys -11.0 O/U 48.5 OPENED COWBOYS -5.5/44.5
San Francisco 49ers -7.0 at Seattle Seahawks O/U 43.0 OPENED 49ERS -1.5/46.5
Miami Dolphins -9.5 at New York Jets O/U 41.0 OPENED JETS -2.5/42.0
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons -1.0 O/U 42.5 OPENED SAINTS -1.0/44.0
Pittsburgh Steelers -1.0 at Cincinnati Bengals O/U 34.5 OPENED BENGALS -4.5/41.0
Jacksonville Jaguars -1.0 at Houston Texans O/U 47.0 OPENED JAGUARS -4.5/45.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts -2.0 O/U 43.5 OPENED COLTS -1.0/41.5
New England Patriots -3.5 at New York Giants O/U 34.0 OPENED GIANTS -1.5/43.5
Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans -4.0 O/U 37.0 OPENED TITANS -1.0/38.5
Los Angeles Rams -1.0 at Arizona Cardinals O/U 44.5 OPENED RAMS -2.0/46.0
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos -2.5 O/U 36.0 OPENED BRONCOS -1.0/42.0
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 at Las Vegas Raiders O/U 44.0 OPENED CHIEFS -5.0/45.0
Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 O/U 47.5 OPENED EAGLES -1.5/50.5
Baltimore Ravens -4.0 at Los Angeles Chargers O/U 46.5 OPENED CHARGERS -2.0/44.0
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings -3.5 O/U 46.0 OPENED VIKINGS -3.5/44.0
Week 12 Key Injury News
Falcons - QB Taylor Heinicke (QUESTIONABLE)
Seahawks - QB Geno Smith (QUESTIONABLE)
Patriots - QB Mac Jones (QUESTIONABLE)
Saints - QB Derek Carr (QUESTIONABLE)
Week 12 observations
Highest point spread – Commanders/Cowboys -11.0
Lowest point spread – Rams/Cardinals, Steelers/Bengals -1.0
Highest total – Commanders/Cowboys 48.5
Lowest total – Patriots/Giants 33.5
Four games with totals over 47.0 – Commanders/Cowboys, Jaguars/Texans, Bills/Eagles, Packers/Lions
Four games with totals of 37 or less – Steelers/Bengals, Patriots/Giants, Panthers/Titans, Browns/Broncos
Three games with lines at least -9.5 or higher – Commanders/Cowboys, Dolphins/Jets, Chiefs/Raiders
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NFL Week 12 Line Movement: Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
The line opened Cowboys -5.5 and moved to -9.5 a week ago. It moved to -11.0 after the Cowboys crushed the Panthers on the road and the Commanders lost at home to the Giants. I can see this line going even higher and the only thing keeping it in check is that it is a NFC East divisional rivalry. The total opened 44.5 and has moved to 48.5 which is all on the Cowboys' team total side.
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NFL Week 12 Line Movement: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
The 49ers opened a small divisional road favorite at -1.5 and had moved to -3.5. The 49ers had two strong back-to-back games and the line move to -4.5 and it's now sitting at -7.0 as Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is now listed as questionable. This is a very significant line move and keeping a track on Smith's status is critical. The total has dropped a full 3 points from 46.5 to 43.5.
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NFL Week 12 Line Movement: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
This line has moved the most this week as it opened Jets -2.5 and between the Aaron Rodgers injury and horrible quarterback play it moved to Dolphins -7.0. The line is now at Dolphins -9.5 and probably stays there or even climbs to -10. The Jets are now going to start Tim Boyle at quarterback. The total in the game opened 42.0 and dropped to 40.0.
NFL Week 12 Line Movement: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals opened -4.5 in the summer and because of the Joe Burrow injury, it has moved to Steelers -1.0, which is a full 5.5 line move and could end up close to Steelers -3.0. The total has dropped from 41.0 to 34.5 also. I am not sure that total can drop much more, but 32.0 is probably the floor.
NFL Week 12 Line Movement: Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers opened -2.0, but based on the Ravens' success and Chargers' repeated failures, it is now all the way up to Ravens -4.0. This could be a bit too rich now that it has crossed over the key number of 3. I can see a lot of sharps looking to take the home dog at +4 and this number getting down to -3 with high juice.
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