NFL Picks: Key NFL Line Moves for Week 15

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Published on December 12, 2023

NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 15

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are three, seven, six, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.

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NFL Week 15 Odds

Week 15 Schedule

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders -3.0 O/U 34.0 OPENED CHARGERS -1.5, 47.5

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 O/U 39.5 OPENED BENGALS -5.0, 40.5

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts -2.5 O/U 42.0 OPENED STEELERS -2.5, 39.0

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions -4.5 O/U 46.5 OPENED LIONS -2.0, 47.5

Atlanta Falcons -3.0 at Carolina Panthers O/U 35.0 OPENED PANTHERS -1.0, 35.0

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns -3.5 O/U 38.0 OPENED BROWNS -3.5, 37.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers -3.5 O/U 42.5 OPENED PACKERS -3.5, 40.5

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins -8.0 O/U 40.5 OPENED DOLPHINS -1.5, 40.5

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints -4.5 O/U 36.5 OPENED SAINTS -1.0, 44.0

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans -2.5 O/U 37.5 OPENED TITANS -3.0, 42.5

Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 at New England Patriots O/U 37.5 OPENED CHIEFS -3.5, 46.5

San Francisco 49ers -13.5 at Arizona Cardinals O/U 47.0 OPENED 49ERS -6.5, 46.0

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams -7.0 O/U 48.5 OPENED RAMS -1.0, 45.5

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills -2.0 O/U 49.0 OPENED BILLS -4.0, 49.0

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 43.5 OPENED JAGUARS -1.0 O/U 39.5

Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 at Seattle Seahawks O/U 48.0 OPENED EAGLES -2.0 O/U 47.0

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Week 15 Key Injury News

There were a lot of key injuries in Week 14 that will impact Week 15

Chargers - QB Justin Herbert. WR Keenan Allen

Texans - QB C.J. Stroud, WR Nico Collins

Raiders - RB Josh Jacobs

Vikings - RB Alexander Mattison, WR Justin Jefferson

Seahawks - QB Geno Smith, DB Devon Witherspoon

Ravens - S Kyle Hamilton

Bills - TE Dalton Kincaid

Browns - S Grant Delpit

Falcons - OL Jake Matthews

Week 15 observations

Highest point spread – 49ers (-13.5) at Cardinals

Lowest point spread – Texans at Titans (-1.5)

Highest total – Commanders/Rams, Cowboys/Rams 49.0

Lowest total – Chargers/Raiders 33.5

Five games with totals over 46.5 - Broncos/Lions, 49ers/Cardinals, Commanders/Rams, Cowboys/Bills, Eagles/Seahawks

Seven games with totals of 39 or less – Chargers/Raiders, Vikings/Bengals, Falcons/Panthers, Bears/Browns, Giants/Saints, Texans/Titans, Chiefs/Patriots

Three games with lines at least -10.0 or higher – Jets/Dolphins, Chiefs/Patriots, 49ers/Cardinals

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NFL Week 15 Line Movement: Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

This line was Chargers -4.0 on Dec. 5, but with the injury to Justin Herbert and possibly Keenan Allen it has moved a full touchdown in favor of the Raiders -3. Herbert is one of those quarterbacks worth a full 7 points based on his backup Easton Stick. The total has also taken a wild swing downward from 47.5 all the way down to 33.5. The Raiders were shut out against the Vikings at home last week with an awful showing and now Josh Jacobs could be out.

This is shaping up to be one of the ugliest games of the season.

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NFL Week 15 Line Movement: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Oh my how one week can make a difference on a line without any quarterback injuries. The Dolphins were -13.5 on Dec. 5 and dropped to -12 on the reopen Dec. 10 when the Jets beat the Texans. The Monday Night Football collapse of the Dolphins as -13.5 home favorites against the Titans have moved this line all the way down to -10.5, and now -8.0. There is the injury to Tyreek Hill to consider, but the Dolphins just beat the Jets 34-13 on Black Friday.

NFL Week 15 Line Movement: New York Giants at New Orleans Saints

This game was another one impacted by Monday night, as the Giants pulled off another upset win against the Packers. The original line was Saints -1.0 and was Saints -6.0 last Sunday. It moved to Saints -6.5 on Sunday night, but is now sitting at -4.5. The total was 44.0 on open, but after both teams' dreadful offensive play it is down to 37.0. Based on the momentum the Giants have, I can see this moving toward -3.0 by kickoff.

NFL Week 15 Line Movement: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Another roller-coaster line movement game in which the Chiefs opened at -3.5 and peaked at -10.0 last week. But the Patriots' win over the Steelers and the Chiefs' loss at home to the Bills have this number moving down to -9.5. This number could really end up sitting at -7, but the teaser factor is in play so it will be interesting to see where this goes. The implied game total is Chiefs 23, Patriots 14, which feels about right as 37 is one of the key numbers for totals.

NFL Week 15 Line Movement: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Most of the 49ers games will show up in the line movement writeups as they are clearly the best team in football, while the Cardinals are bottom three as expected. The 49ers are unstoppable when they are at full strength with their core of Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel.

The line has moved from 49ers -6.5 on the open and all the way up to -14.0 on the road. Most of the times we will see 2-3 games per year with road favorites of at least 14 or more. The risk in this game is the backdoor cover and the Niners being up big and taking their foot off the gas, especially in a division game on the road.

NFL Week 15 Line Movement: Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams

The original opening line was Rams -1.0, but the Rams when healthy with Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have looked great. They had the Ravens on the ropes Sunday, and the Commanders are just playing out the season. LA has a real shot at the playoffs in the NFC and this number has now reached the key number of -7, with the total also crossing over a key number 48 and up to 49.

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