This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 4
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
Early observations on Week 4 lines:
- Only 2 games with a line over a touchdown
- FIve games have a line greater than 3.5 points
- Only two games with a total over 48
- Five road favorites and two of them are 0-3 (Broncos, Vikings) who are facing another 0-3 team (Bears, Panthers)
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NFL Week 4 Odds
Detroit Lions (-1) at Green Bay Packers O/U 45
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) O/U 43
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) O/U 53.5
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers O/U 46
Denver Broncos (-3.0) at Chicago Bears O/U 46
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) O/U 41.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0) at Houston Texans O/U 41
Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-1) O/U 45
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.0) O/U 41
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.0) O/U 44.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-1.0) O/U 42.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.0) O/U 48
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (-7.0) O/U 43.5
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14.0) O/U 44.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at New York Jets O/U 43
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (-1.5) O/U 46.5
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NFL Week 4 Line Movement: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
The line opened Bills -3.5 and is now -2.5, but that is not where the line movement is coming from. The total has gone from 49.5 to 53.5, which is a big jump on a total. But when one team puts up 70 points and the other has put up 30-plus points in the last two weeks, this is what happens. Even though this has been bet up heavily by sharps, I can see it going up another 1-2 points putting the game projection around 30-27.
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NFL Week 4 Line Movement: Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
The Monday Night Football game between the Bengals and Rams finished late, so there could be some more movement on this depending on Joe Burrow's health. The line opened Bengals -4.5 and has moved a total of 5.5 points to where the Titans are now -1.0 favorites.
The MNF result will definitely play a factor if the Bengals lose, it probably stays at Titans -1.0, but if they win it could end up going back up to Bengals -3.0. Keep an eye on this one, especially the total which is 44.5 and dropped to 42.5, this one could end up going even lower.
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NFL Week 4 Line Movement: New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys
I was surprised to see this line opened just Dallas -3.5 and went to -4.5 when the season started. It has now moved to -6.5 or -7.0. It did actually hit -7.5 and was immediately lowered to -7.0. The Cowboys opened the season in impressive fashion with huge wins over the Giants and Jets. But they were upset and outplayed in Week 3 against the Cardinals on the road.
The Patriots are 1-2 and have played the Eagles, Dolphins and Jets tough. The defense has been the key to the Pats' start as the offense has struggled. The total in this game has bounced around quite a bit opening at 45.5, and dropping to 42.0, 41.0, and back up to 43.5. I think this one has UNDER written all over it.
NFL Week 4 Line Movement: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have established themselves as the best team in football and the line in this game proves that. The 49ers opened -9.5 and it jumped to -14.5 before coming back down to -14.0, where I would expect it to stay. The Cardinals were expected to be in tank mode and one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they have played everyone extremely tough and pulled off a huge upset at home against the Cowboys in Week 3.
The Cardinals' efforts have maybe held this line to -14 and if they were 0-3 and had been blown out I could see it being -17. The 49ers will not be caught sleeping like the Cowboys were in this game and should continue to roll.
NFL Week 4 Line Movement: Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
This is the game with the biggest line move of the week, as the Chiefs were just -1.0 when it opened. The injury to Aaron Rodgers was worth about 7 points, but the poor play of Zach Wilson has also contributed to the Chiefs now being a massive -9.5 favorite on the road.
Nobody thinks the Jets have a chance to win this game, and it could play out very much like the Cowboys game did.
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