NFL Picks: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 4

NFL Picks: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 4

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 4

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention. 

Early observations on Week 4 lines:

  • Only 2 games with a line over a touchdown
  • FIve games have a line greater than 3.5 points
  • Only two games with a total over 48
  • Five road favorites and two of them are 0-3 (Broncos, Vikings) who are facing another 0-3 team (Bears, Panthers)

Kick off the NFL season at Caesars Sportsbook using our Caesars Sportsbook promo code for your $250 in bonus bets. Be sure to check out the odds differences across the best sports betting sites, as well as the best sportsbook promos to get the most bang for your buck this season.

NFL Week 4 Odds

Detroit Lions (-1) at Green Bay Packers O/U 45 

Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) O/U 43

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) O/U 53.5 

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers O/U 46 

Denver Broncos (-3.0) at Chicago Bears O/U 46

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) O/U 41.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0) at Houston Texans O/U 41

Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-1) O/U 45

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.0) O/U 41

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.0) O/U 44.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-1.0) O/U 42.5

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.0) O/U 48

New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (-7.0) O/U 43.5

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14.0) O/U 44.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at New York Jets O/U 43

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (-1.5) O/U 46.5

The BetMGM bonus code gets new customers access to a first bet offer worth up to $1,500.

NFL Week 4 Line Movement: Miami Dolphins   at Buffalo Bills

The line opened Bills -3.5 and is now -2.5, but that is not where the line movement is coming from. The total has gone from 49.5 to 53.5, which is a big jump on a total. But when one team puts up 70 points and the other has put up 30-plus points in the last two weeks, this is what happens. Even though this has been bet up heavily by sharps, I can see it going up another 1-2 points putting the game projection around 30-27.

New users can take advantage of the Fanduel promo code that opens up $200 in bonus bets.

NFL Week 4 Line Movement: Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

The Monday Night Football game between the Bengals and Rams finished late, so there could be some more movement on this depending on Joe Burrow's health. The line opened Bengals -4.5 and has moved a total of 5.5 points to where the Titans are now -1.0 favorites. 

The MNF result will definitely play a factor if the Bengals lose, it probably stays at Titans -1.0, but if they win it could end up going back up to Bengals -3.0. Keep an eye on this one, especially the total which is 44.5 and dropped to 42.5, this one could end up going even lower. 

Sign up at the DraftKings Sportsbook using RotoWire's DraftKings Promo Code for a $200 welcome offer.

NFL Week 4 Line Movement: New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys

I was surprised to see this line opened just Dallas -3.5 and went to -4.5 when the season started. It has now moved to -6.5 or -7.0. It did actually hit -7.5 and was immediately lowered to -7.0. The Cowboys opened the season in impressive fashion with huge wins over the Giants and Jets. But they were upset and outplayed in Week 3 against the Cardinals on the road. 

The Patriots are 1-2 and have played the Eagles, Dolphins and Jets tough. The defense has been the key to the Pats' start as the offense has struggled. The total in this game has bounced around quite a bit opening at 45.5, and dropping to 42.0, 41.0, and back up to 43.5. I think this one has UNDER written all over it. 

NFL Week 4 Line Movement: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have established themselves as the best team in football and the line in this game proves that. The 49ers opened -9.5 and it jumped to -14.5 before coming back down to -14.0, where I would expect it to stay. The Cardinals were expected to be in tank mode and one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they have played everyone extremely tough and pulled off a huge upset at home against the Cowboys in Week 3. 

The Cardinals' efforts have maybe held this line to -14 and if they were 0-3 and had been blown out I could see it being -17. The 49ers will not be caught sleeping like the Cowboys were in this game and should continue to roll. 

NFL Week 4 Line Movement: Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets

This is the game with the biggest line move of the week, as the Chiefs were just -1.0 when it opened. The injury to Aaron Rodgers was worth about 7 points, but the poor play of Zach Wilson has also contributed to the Chiefs now being a massive -9.5 favorite on the road. 

Nobody thinks the Jets have a chance to win this game, and it could play out very much like the Cowboys game did. 

If you're betting on the NFL this season, RotoWire has a full suite of betting pages and tools with everything you need from the latest NFL odds to weekly NFL picks along with a wide variety of NFL futures and NFL player futures. Be sure to use our page to see what's available across the country and in your state, along with the latest promo codes and sign-up bonuses. Make use of the best sports betting sites and NFL betting sites to get the most out of your NFL betting experience.

RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NFL Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NFL fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
NFL Staff Picks: Week 11 Winners
NFL Staff Picks: Week 11 Winners
Guillotine League Strategy: Late Season Strength of Schedule Downgrades
Guillotine League Strategy: Late Season Strength of Schedule Downgrades
Survivor: Week 11 Strategy & Picks
Survivor: Week 11 Strategy & Picks
NFL Waiver Wire: Week 11 Deep Dive
NFL Waiver Wire: Week 11 Deep Dive
IDP Analysis: Week 10 Review
IDP Analysis: Week 10 Review
Weekly Rankings: Week 11 Value Meter
Weekly Rankings: Week 11 Value Meter