This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 5
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
Takeaways from Week 4 results
- Six teams scored less than 10 points (Falcons, Steelers, Saints, Bengals, Browns, Patriots). The Panthers did not score an offensive touchdown and had a total of 13 points.
- The average score per team was 22.3 points per game, the average score per game was 44.6
Early observations on Week 5 lines:
- There are five road favorites
- There are four games with a total of 48 or higher
- There are five games with a line of -3 or less
- Six games with a line move of at least four points
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NFL Week 5 Odds
BYES: Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-6.5) O/U 44.0
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) O/U 48.0
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-1.0) O/U 41.5
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-9.0) O/U 43.5
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.0) O/U 43.0
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-9.5) O/U 49.5
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1.5) O/U 39.5
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 40.0
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0) at Arizona Cardinals O/U 43.0
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.0) at Los Angeles Rams O/U 50.0
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-2.5) O/U 42.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings O/U 52.5
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) O/U 45.0
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders O/U 44.0
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NFL Week 5 Line Movement: Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
The Bears come into this game 0-4 after blowing a 28-7 lead at home to the Broncos, while the Commanders took the Eagles to overtime on the road and lost, 34-31.
The look ahead line was Washington -1.5 and moved to -4.5 last week. It went to -6.0 Sunday night and was already bet up to -7.0. The Bears are regarded as one of the worst teams in football while the Commanders are playing tough with a 2-2 record.
A 5.5 line move without a quarterback injury is very significant, almost too significant. If the Bears had won Sunday, it probably would be -5.5 or -6.0. Given that the Commanders defense is not strong, laying a touchdown with this team looks to be very expensive.
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NFL Week 5 Line Movement: Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons
The game with the biggest line move combined on the side and total has the Texans now as a 1.0-point favorite on the road against the Falcons. The Falcons were originally installed as -3.0 home favorites, and it had reached -3.5 before flipping over by 3.5 points in the last 24 hours to Texans -1.0. The total opened 45 and it's down to 41 without any key injuries.
This feels like a huge overreaction to the Texans win over the Steelers without Kenny Pickett and the Falcons lackluster performances two weeks in a row.
When a team gets into a situation where it is in unchartered territory, proceed with caution. The Texans as a non-conference road favorite against a team with a 2-2 record feels like a significant overreaction. The Falcons offense is struggling, but their defense has played well.
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NFL Week 5 Line Movement: Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
The Panthers are bordering on being considered the worst team in football along with the Bears, while the Lions are making a strong case for contenders in the NFC. The Panthers offense is struggling with rookie quarterback Bryce Young and a lack of skill players.
The Lions come into this game off a Thursday night win at the Packers with extra rest. Another game where a team is starting to reach unchartered territory with the Lions all the way up to a 9-point favorites after seeing it open -5.0. Detroit's numbers at home are usually elevated and the total in this game has remained at 43.5 due to the Panthers' terrible offense.
This is the largest the Lions have been favored since Nov. 12, 2017 and before that it was Dec. 7, 2014.
NFL Week 5 Line Movement: New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
Whenever a team is playing on Monday night there is potential for a major line move if there is a key injury, so keep an eye on the Giants/Seahawks game. If it goes according to plan, the line should remain relatively close at Dolphins -9.5.
The line originally opened Miami -4.5, but with the Dolphins' huge performances in the first three weeks, it was pushed up a total of 5 points. The Giants have played a very difficult schedule and may not be as bad as people think. This line feels inflated, especially with the Dolphins coming off a 48-20 loss to the Bills on the road.
For those looking at historical trends, the Dolphins are just 2-7 against the spread in their last 10 games as at least 9-point home favorites.
NFL Week 5 Line Movement: Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals
The Bengals opened -7.5 road favorites at Arizona, but a 1-3 start and an injured Joe Burrow has this line down to Bengals -3.0. The Cardinals were thought to have been the worst team in football before the season started, but they have played everyone tough including a huge upset win over the Cowboys.
The 49ers did whatever they wanted on offense in Week 4 against the Cardinals and the Bengals got spanked at the Titans 27-3. This is a crucial game in the Bengals season because if they drop to 1-4 you can write them off.
NFL Week 5 Line Movement: Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders quarterback situation moved the line on the Chargers game from a low of LA -3.5 up to -7.0. The Raiders originally opened -1.5, but the line has moved to Packers -2.5. The Packers are coming off a very bad performance on Thursday night at home against the Lions, 34-20, in which the offense struggled to a 27-3 deficit in the first half.
Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo should be back this week after spending last week in the concussion protocol, but wide receiver Davante Adams could be a question mark now. The Packers come into this game with several days of extra rest with hopes of getting some injured players back.
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