NFL Picks: Week 17 Early Line Movement and Betting Trends

NFL Picks: Week 17 Early Line Movement and Betting Trends

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Week 17 Line Movement Breakdown

This article aims to look at the key line moves for the week and determine what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.

With two weeks left in the regular season, there are still six playoff spots available and 12 teams with at least a 20 percent chance of making the playoffs. Week 18 has been designated by the NFL to be all divisional matchups, but there are some this week including the Bucs/Panthers that will already decide the NFC South winner and the #4 seed. 

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Latest NFL Week 17 Odds

For more odds across multiple books, take a look at NFL Week 17 odds.

Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) @ Tennessee Titans O/U 42.5

Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) O/U 41

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-5.5) O/U 52.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) @ Houston Texans O/U 43.5

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5) O/U 45

Miami Dolphins (-1.5) @ New England Patriots O/U 43.5

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants (-3.5) O/U 41.5

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (-7) O/U 44

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccanneers (-3) O/U 39.5

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders (-2) O/U 40.5

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders O/U 44.5

New York Jets (-1.5) @ Seattle Seahawks O/U 43.5

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-3) O/U 47

Los Angeles Rams @ Los Angeles Chargers (-7) O/U 40.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) O/U 36

Buffalo Bills (-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals O/U 49.5             

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NFL Week 17 Line Movement: Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans

The Titans opened as -1.5 favorites in the summer, but this line has moved a full 11 points and now has the Cowboys -9.5 road favorites. The Titans have lost five in a row and are now tied with the Jaguars for first place in the AFC South. They have gone from 7-3 to 7-8 including last weeks' loss at home to the lowly Texans. The key factor for the line movement besides the losing streak is Ryan Tannehill is unlikely to play again this season. 

The Cowboys are 11-4 and coming off their biggest win of the season at home against the Eagles 40-34. They have won five out of their last six games. This year has shown us that laying more than a touchdown on the road, especially in non-conference games is not profitable. The one thing the Titans do well is stop the run which could give the Cowboys trouble.

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NFL Week 17 Line Movement: Arizona Cardinals   at Atlanta Falcons  

The opening line in this game was Cardinals -3.5 and has moved to Falcons -3.5 for a total of a seven point line move. The Falcons have lost four in a row and six out of their last seven, while the Cardinals have lost five in a row and seven out of their last eight games. Both teams are starting backup quarterbacks with the Falcons going with Desmond Ridder and the Cardinals with Trace McSorley

Both teams' offenses have been putrid during these losing streaks with the Falcons averaging 16.4 points in their last seven and the Cardinals 15.6 in their last five. Keep an eye on the total which sits at 40.5 to 41.0 as it could end up moving more towards the 37.0 - 38.0 range. 

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NFL Week 17 Line Movement: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions  

The line opened Lions -1.5 as both teams were expected to be near the bottom of the league, but the Lions got healthy and went on an incredible run winning six out of seven after starting 1-6. Now the Lions are -5.5 but it peaked at -6.5.  They are still in playoff contention but suffered a huge loss at the Panthers last week as 3-point road favorites 37-23. The Bears have lost eight in a row, as their defense has allowed 32.6 points per game in that stretch.

It is hard to lay more than a field goal in any relatively close matchup this season especially when the Lions' defense is ranked dead last in yards and points allowed. 

The Panthers ran for over 300 yards on the Lions and the Bears have the best running game in football at 179.7 yards per game. These two teams played in Chicago on November 13th in a thriller 31-30 in which the Lions won which also explains the total moving from 48.5 to 52.0. The Lions still have a 24 percent chance to make the playoffs and have the Packers on the road next week. These two teams could absolutely blow by the 61 points they put up last month. 

NFL Week 17 Line Movement: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

A few weeks ago, these two teams met in Denver with the Chiefs as 9-point road favorites. The Chiefs won 34-28, but did not cover the number. The Broncos were able to hang around and show the vulnerability of the Chiefs defense. Now the Chiefs are -13.5 home favorites which suggests both teams are power rated about the same as in the earlier matchup. 

The Broncos are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Rams on Sunday 51-14 which resulted in them firing head coach Nathanial Hackett. The Chiefs have owned the Broncos at home winning five in a row and four of those have gone UNDER the total. It is hard to see the Broncos getting up for this game even after firing their coach and it is a divisional rivalry. 

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The NFL regular season is getting close to the finish line and you can keep up with all the action with the latest NFL odds, weekly NFL picks, NFL futures, and NFL player futures from the best NFL betting sites.

For those in Maryland or Ohio, remember that legal sportsbooks have already launched or are nearing launch. Maryland officially launched sports betting in November and Ohio is set to launch by New Year's Day. Stay in the loop on the latest offers in your area with Maryland Betting Promos and Ohio Betting Promos.

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Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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