This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Erickson was the only one with a winning record last week at 8-7, and it continues to be ugly for Stopa who at 4-11 has now sunk into a last place tie with me. Moreover, our consensus picks are an unbelievable 6-15-2, something that's very hard to achieve no matter how much you study the NFL or how hard you try.
This week we have three more consensus picks, but don't fade them. It's impossible to make money fading anyone going forward no matter how much you would have made had you done it in the past.
| Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks -6.5 at Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals |
| Patriots -4 at Jets | Jets | Patriots | Jets | Jets | Jets |
| Chargers -7.5 at Jaguars | Chargers | Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars |
| Texans +6.5 at Chiefs | Texans | Chiefs | Texans | Texans | Chiefs |
| Bengals +3 at Lions | Lions | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Lions |
| Bills +8 at Dolphins | Dolphins | Bills | Bills | Bills | Dolphins |
| Bears +1 at Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins |
| Cowboys +3 at Eagles | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Eagles |
| Rams +6 at Panthers | Panthers | Rams | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers |
| Buccaneers +7 at Falcons | Buccaneers | Falcons | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers |
| 49ers -4 at Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans | 49ers |
| Browns +10 at Packers | Packers | Browns | Browns | Browns | Packers |
| Ravens +2 at Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Ravens | Ravens | Steelers |
| Broncos -6.5 at Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts | Broncos | Colts |
| Vikings +3 at Giants | Giants | Giants | Giants | Giants | Giants |
| Best Bet | Panthers | Patriots | Cardinals | Cowboys | Steelers |
| Last Week's Record | 8-7 | 7-8 |
Erickson was the only one with a winning record last week at 8-7, and it continues to be ugly for Stopa who at 4-11 has now sunk into a last place tie with me. Moreover, our consensus picks are an unbelievable 6-15-2, something that's very hard to achieve no matter how much you study the NFL or how hard you try.
Consensus Picks
The players:
This week we have three more consensus picks, but don't fade them. It's impossible to make money fading anyone going forward no matter how much you would have made had you done it in the past.
| Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks -6.5 at Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals |
| Patriots -4 at Jets | Jets | Patriots | Jets | Jets | Jets |
| Chargers -7.5 at Jaguars | Chargers | Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars |
| Texans +6.5 at Chiefs | Texans | Chiefs | Texans | Texans | Chiefs |
| Bengals +3 at Lions | Lions | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Lions |
| Bills +8 at Dolphins | Dolphins | Bills | Bills | Bills | Dolphins |
| Bears +1 at Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins |
| Cowboys +3 at Eagles | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Eagles |
| Rams +6 at Panthers | Panthers | Rams | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers |
| Buccaneers +7 at Falcons | Buccaneers | Falcons | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers |
| 49ers -4 at Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans | 49ers |
| Browns +10 at Packers | Packers | Browns | Browns | Browns | Packers |
| Ravens +2 at Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Ravens | Ravens | Steelers |
| Broncos -6.5 at Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts | Broncos | Colts |
| Vikings +3 at Giants | Giants | Giants | Giants | Giants | Giants |
| Best Bet | Panthers | Patriots | Cardinals | Cowboys | Steelers |
| Last Week's Record | 8-7 | 7-8 | 6-9 | 4-11 | 7-8 |
| 2013 Record | 48-40-4 | 39-49-4 | 36-52-4 | 36-52-4 | 47-41-4 |
| Best Bet Record | 3-3 | 2-4 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 1-5 |
| 2013 Consensus Pick Record | 6-15-2 | ||||
| 2012 Record | 110-140-6 | 124-126-6 | 121-129-6 | 143-107-6 | 123-127-6 |
| 2011 Record | 121-128-7 | 134-115-7 | 124-125-7 | 123-126-7 | 127-122-7 |
| 2010 Record | 129-122-5 | 134-117-5 | 126-125-5 | 136-115-5 | 134-117-5 |
| 2009 Record | 123-130-3 | 132-121-3 | 131-122-3 | 130-123-3 | 126-127-3 |
| 2008 Record | 132-114-10 | 128-118-10 | 124-122-10 | 125-121-10 | 130-116-10 |
| 2007 Record | 127-120 | 118-129 | 127-120 | N/A | 130-117 |
| 2006 Record | 118-129 | N/A | 139-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2005 Record | 121-126 | N/A | 127-120 | N/A | N/A |
| 2004 Record | 124-124 | N/A | 130-118 | N/A | N/A |
| 2003 Record | 121-126 | 118-129 | 124-123 | N/A | N/A |
| 2002 Record | 113-136 | 123-126 | 141-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2001 Record | 124-113 | 117-120 | 118-119 | N/A | N/A |
| 2000 Record | 123-117 | 134-106 | 141-99 | N/A | N/A |
Consensus Picks
This week we have three consensus picks: the Cardinals, Redskins and Giants. Last week we went 2-5 to put us at 6-15-2 on the season.
Comments:
| Writer | Comment |
| Erickson | The Rams-Texans was one of those all-time deceptive scores. Houston outgained them nearly 2:1, and hell, Matt Schaub wasn't even the problem on the turnovers. If turnovers are random to the degree most advanced metrics suggest, this was a completely anomalous result. The Rams still kind of stink, and Carolina I think is pretty good, though they have a 15% chance of sucking at any given moment. Still, I think it's worth laying the points here - a #BeatMeDown type of game is possible... It's a pain to have to pick HOU-KC now given the QB uncertainty, but I'll take the other side of that coin, too, and suggest Houston is much better than the dumpster fire they've been the last two weeks... I hate having to pick the Giants as a favorite, but Josh Freeman isn't a panacea to the Vikings' woes - at least, I don't think he is. Instead, he gets to suck in the same stadium for two different teams this season, against two different teams... I wanted to pick the Bills, but I really feel that Thaddeus Lewis Exposed moment is going to happen instead. |
| Pianowski | Belichick excels with these in-season rematch games against the Jets. I'm also sure I'm going to get the Panthers-Rams game wrong, as I usually do. I hate both of those teams with the intensity of 1,000 suns. |
| Liss | After differing with DDD on only one pick last week (NO-NE, and he got awfully lucky), I differ with Stopa on only one pick this week (DEN-IND). Great minds think originally, but apparently idiots 16 games under .500 think alike. |
| Stopa | Did you know the Panthers are ranked fourth on Massey-Peabody's rankings (behind only DEN, SEA, and GB)? The Panthers! Fourth! Apparently, I have no idea who's good in the NFL in 2013, so until I turn it around, feel free to keep backing my picks in even numbered years and fading me in odd years. In all seriousness, it's hard to say much with any confidence given the beating I'm taking, so I'll keep it short. I think Dallas is notably better than Philly, and it seems like the teams coming off a bye - Dolphins and Falcons - are laying more points than they should. Mostly, though, I just took the points. That's what you do when you lack confidence - take the points, as that's the only certainty. |
| Del Don | I don't like any best bets this week, but I'll go back to the well with Pittsburgh, who looked a lot better coming off its bye last week. The two picks I struggled most with were the Packers and Panthers. |
The players:
•Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Weekly Rankings. Covers and roots for the Bengals.
•Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 and 2011 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.
•Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and the Survivor column in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.
•Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, 2010, 2012 Staff Picks Champ, Writes Run 'N' Shoot. Roots for the Bills.
•Dalton Del Don: Fantasy Expert for Yahoo! Sports, 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the 49ers.
