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Best Bets for NFL Wildcard Sunday and Monday
Welcome back, fam! 2025 is officially underway, and while my eyes are locked in on that College Baseball countdown, I had time to scope out some winners for Wild Card Weekend. This is probably the best weekend of the NFL calendar, so let's grab a quick W for Sunday Night in the 813.
Commanders at Bucs Betting Picks
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) | Total: 50.5
Tampa, FL will always be my second home, even if it feels like a distant memory since I lived there. While I grew up a die hard Falcons fan, I've always felt a certain enjoyment from watching the Bucs when they weren't playing ATL. There was nothing better than that late window kick-off with the sun setting and points a plenty in Raymond James Stadium.....Sorry, for the trip down memory lane.
The Bucs were a team I believed in during the preseason to win the NFC South while a lot of others salivated over the Falcons because of their offseason additions. Well, for the fourth straight year, Tampa reigns supreme as the Big Daddy (Great effing movie) of the division. It wasn't that fancy, just effective. Their first step in their quest to repeat was facing off against Jayden Daniels in his first NFL start and HC Dan Quinn's first game as the new skipper. Even in a blowout loss, Washington flashed some fireworks that ultimately became a hint of what was to come in 2024. But now, these are two different teams that will see each other on Sunday night in Tampa.
In the first matchup, Tampa lit up the sky with the pass game. Baker Mayfield was surgical in carving up a Commanders secondary that still carried around some of that turnstile pixie dust of one of the worst pass defenses from 2023. Now, they actually rank top half in the league against WRs in catches, yards, and TDs. Furthermore, they added Mike Evans arch nemesis in CB Marshon Lattimore from the Saints mid-season. It's likely those two will battle another World War as they have so many times in the past eight years.
Despite the improvement, I think the Bucs should still be able to move the ball through the air with decent efficiency and production. In the last three weeks, the Washington pass defense didn't necessarily shut down any of Trey Lance (20/34 for 244 yards), Kenny Pickett (14/24 for 143 yards 1 TD/1 INT), or Michael Penix (19/35 for 223 yards 1 TD/1 INT).
With Baker having a career year as the best statistical QB in the NFC (4,500 yards, 41 TDs, and a 71.4 completion percentage), he should be able to continue his success against a secondary that is still vulnerable at times. The Commanders rank as the best defense in terms of not allowing YAC, top five in fewest missed tackles, and blitz the sixth most. But I think Baker can still be successful because his 71.2% catchable pass rate when under pressure ranks best in the NFL. Additionally, Washington deploys man coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league (36.1%), and Baker has shredded that for the fourth best completion percentage in the league (63.4%), seventh best passer rating (105.4), and fifth best EPA per play.
However, the big advantage the Bucs have is on the ground, where the Commanders defense was gashed this year for 137.5 yards per game (third most). Though Tampa has aired it out this season, they've been slicing on the ground thanks to the emergence of rookie Bucky Irving to go along with Rachaad White. Their 149.2 YPG (fourth best) has been a huge component to their offensive success in 2024. Expect to see a lot of firepower as usual for this offense by both land and air.
I'm a huge Jayden Daniels guy. I think he's going to be a star in the NFL for years to come. He just has "IT." Although I'm not a huge College Football guy, I did see a fair amount of JD last season at LSU. His big rookie season should earn him the Offensive Rookie of the Year thanks to his dazzling play in both the pass and run game. Back in Week 1, he flashed a lot of that talent and playmaking ability even in a 17-point loss.
The 88 rush yards that day were his second most of the season. While he can make plays as a passer, this offense is fueled by the ground game where they rank third in the NFL as a team (154.1 YPG). The bad news is Tampa's defense has allowed the fourth fewest rush yards (97.8 YPG), so they'll need to have success through the air against a bottom five pass defense. The limited weapons in the pass game is where I think this becomes a huge edge for the Bucs. Outside of Terry McLaurin and maybe Austin Ekeler, there's not a truly consistent threat to challenge this TB secondary. Daniels will have to do a lot with his legs again for his team to have a realistic chance at an upset.
It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Commanders get this done. But barring any fluky defensive or special teams scores, they seem to have a narrow path to victory. Ultimately, I like the Bucs in this matchup at home with the more seasoned QB. There's a lot of people still sleeping on Tampa Bay with the Lions, Eagles, Rams, and Vikings roaming around the NFC, but this team is dangerous.
In the matchup with the highest total of the weekend, give me Tampa in a close one. Expect to see some fireworks.
Pick: Bucs -3 -105 FanDuel
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Sunday/Monday Player Props
Jayden Daniels Over 51.5 rush yards -113 FanDuel
I gave this out on my Breaking Bet podcast on Thursday evening when it was at 48.5. Obviously the line caught some steam, but I still think it's worth a play. JD smoked this number in their first matchup. And I would expect him to call his own number a lot here. The Bucs have been touched by running QBs this season.
DeVonta Smith TD +200 FanDuel
This is more of a sprinkle play for me. Guessing which Philly player will score is like putting a bunch of names in a hat and picking one. Smith has been on a TD heater lately, cashing in the end zone five times in his last four contests. Green Bay's defense will likely focus in on A.J. Brown more, giving Smith plenty of favorable matchups. At the end of the day, the number is too big for a dude who has managed 16 tuddies in his last 29 games.
Puka Nacua O7.5 catches -120 FanDuel
Another Breaking Bet play of mine, but this line hasn't moved yet. Last year in the playoffs, we saw Matthew Stafford look to Puka in the big moments against the Lions, a spot that was Cooper Kupp's so many times. That to me officially signaled the changing of the guard that Puka is the primary target. He's getting fed like a pig ready to be slaughtered the last eight games he played, seeing eight plus targets every time. Eight grabs is a lot, but he's also facing the worst defense against WRs in the NFL this season. The Vikings have allowed the most catches (255) and second most yards (3,115) to opposing wide outs. With Kupp and other weapons available, they won't be able to key in on Puka as much as they would want to.
