This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Week 12
Week 11 of the NFL season brought us more dramatic finishes including multiple lead changes and unexpected comebacks. None though were as dramatic and unexpected as the Philadelphia Eagles' comeback in the second half of their 21-17 road win over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Eagles held the Chiefs scoreless in the second half and shockingly marked the third consecutive game they did not score any points in the second half of a game. Before this season, the last time the Chiefs did not score in the second half was back in Week 9 of the 2021 season when they held on for a 13-7 win over the Green Bay Packers.
The Eagles were outgained by 98 total yards, had seven fewer first downs, and had four fewer minutes in time-of-possession, but still found a way to win the game. The Pittsburgh Steelers have been the masters of this winning method having won six games in which they were outgained in the stats. The Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts have had four such games and the Eagles rank 4th in this category with three wins. So far this season there have been 48 games where the winner was outgained in the box score. Since 1989 the 2016 season has had the most wins by teams that were outgained with 63 through Week 11 and the fewest such wins occurred in the 1993 season with 34 games. So. this is essentially an average season for the number of wins by teams that lost in the stats.
The Steelers are tied with the 2016 Detroit Lions and the 2011 Green Bay Packers with six wins where they were outgained by the foes. In 2016 the Lions lost to the Seattle Seahawks in the Wild Card round of the playoffs and in 2011 the Packers won the NFC North division, but then lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champion New York Giants 27-20 in the Divisional Round. So, both of the previous teams made the playoffs. The Steelers would be in the playoffs had the season ended in Week 11 despite being in third place in the AFC North Division with a 6-4 record.
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Situational Trends and Angles for Week 13 Matchups
- Teams that have had six or more wins where they were outgained by the opponent and are priced as road dogs have produced a 7-25 SU record for 22% wins, 16-17 ATS for 49% winning tickets, and a solid 20-12-1 Under record good for 62% winning bets since 1991 from Week 12 on out to the end of the regular season.
- Bet the Under when the Steelers visit the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday.
- Since 1989, teams that have had one loss or were undefeated have gone 105-60 SU (64%) and 62-97-6 ATS for just 39% winning bets from Week 12 on out to the end of the regular season.
- Fade the Eagles as a 2-point home favorite against the Buffalo Bills in Week 12 action.
- Since 1989 betting on home dogs of three or fewer points that have nine or more losses on the season and are coming off a loss, but covered the spread are a strong 14-12 SU (54%) and 16-9-1 ATS for 64% winning bets.
- Bet on the Arizona Cardinals +2 points when they host the LA Rams.
- Road teams that had run 27 or more plays than their opponent in their previous game and now facing a divisional foe, who they lost to earlier in the season have gone 17-17 SU and 21-12-1 ATS for 64% winning bets since 1989.
- Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 points.
A Highly Profitable Betting Algorithm or Week 12 NFL Action
The following betting algorithm has produced a 44-10 SU record and a 39-13-2 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets since 2009. The requirements are:
· Bet on home favorites in a non-conference matchup.
· Our favorite is coming off a double-digit win over a divisional foe.
If the game takes place from Week 12 on out to the end of the season, these favorites have gone 13-3 SU for 81% and 12-4 ATS for 75% winning bets since 2009.
This betting algorithm instructs us to bet on the New York Giants when the host on the New England Patriots priced as -2-point favorites Sunday. This is a non-conference matchup and the Giants are coming off a 31-19 road win over their NFC East divisional foe the Washington Commanders. Take the Giants -2 points to make it two consecutive wins as offered at DraftKings.
