This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Favorites Hit 75% ATS in Week 12
The Kings of Week 12 NFL games was clearly the favorites, who went an impressive 12-4 straight-up (UP) and against the spread (ATS). The most exciting game was the late Sunday afternoon start involving the Philadelphia Eagles (10-1 SU, 7-2-2 ATS, 6-5 Over-Under) hosting the Buffalo Bills (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS, 4-8 Over-Under). The Eagles trailed by 10 points entering the fourth quarter, but for the fourth time this season pulled off a fourth-quarter comeback and won the game in overtime 37-34. The 71 points scored eclipsed the closing total price by 22.5 points, which was the greatest margin for the Bills and Eagles this season.
The Under betting trend continues to shine and has gone 101-73-1 for 58% winning bets this season. In prime-time games starting after 6 PM EST, the Under is a remarkable 29-9 for 76% winning bets this season and 13-1 Under for 93% winning bets on Monday Night Football games. The last season the Under bet trended similar to what we are seeing this season in Monday games was back in 1996 when the Under bet cruised to a money-making 13-3-1 for 81% winning bets. Moreover, this marks the 6th consecutive season (2018) that the Under has been a profitable bet to make for Monday Night Football games going 64-36-2 for 64% winning bets.
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Is It a Great Time to Bet the Over?
Diving deeper into my NFL database and filtering Monday games in which the total is fewer than 50 points has seen the Under bet produce a 54-44-1 record for 69% winning bets over the past six seasons. In MNF games that had a total of 50 or more points, the Over has gone 12-10-1 for 54% winning bets. In MNF games where the total was priced less than the home team's average points scored plus their added points allowed the Under bet produced a solid 31-15-1 record for 67% winning bets over the past six seasons.
The best situational Under bet is when both teams' total points scored and allowed are each more than the posted total as it has produced a 15-3 Under record good for 83% winning bets over the past six seasons and a remarkable 39-17 Under mark for 70% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.
In Week 13 action that the betting algorithm is active, the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Cincinnati Bengals has the total priced at 38 points. The Jaguars rank 14th in the league averaging 43.55 PPG scoring 23.09 PPG and allowing 20.45 PPG and the Bengals rank 22nd in the League averaging 41.278 PPG scoring 19.27 PPG and allowing 20.64 PPG. So, I do like betting the Under 38 points in this game on Monday Night Football.
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Live Betting Tips for Monday Night Football
So far this season, the first half has been the higher-scoring half in MNF games averaging 21.06 PPG as compared to the second half averaging 18.11 PPG. So, look for both teams to get off to faster-than-expected starts and look for a betting price of 42.5 or more points during the first of action only. I never bet in the second half because there is a limited and declining amount of time for those bets to prove to be winners. Specifically, betting 70% preflop before the game starts and then looking to add 15% more at 42.5 points and the last 15% betting amount at 44.5 points is my preferred strategy.
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The Best Betting Opportunity for Week 13
The Eagles will take on the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday set to start at 4:25 PM EST and will be televised nationally on Fox. The Eagles have the best record in the NFL but find themselves installed as 3-point home underdogs to the 49ers. The total is currently set at 47.5 points and has been bet up over the course of the week.
The 49ers have the second-best record in the NFC at 8-3 and trail the AFC Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs both with 9-3 records. So, this is a matchup of the two best-record teams in the NFC and a revenge situation for the 49ers, who lost to the Eagles in last year's Conference Championship game by a final score of 31-7. The 49ers suffered early injuries to their quarterback Brock Purdy and Debo Samuel, but come into this fray with only a few injured players.
Currently, the Eagles have a 77% chance of finishing the season with the best record in the NFC and earning the extremely important BYE week of rest to start the playoffs and a 40% probability of winning the Super Bowl. The 49ers must win this game to have any chance of earning the best record and the BYE week that comes with it given that they already trail the Eagles by two games. The 49ers have a 24% probability of earning the BYE and a 33% probability of winning the Super Bowl. No matter who wins this game both teams are a near certainty to be in the playoffs.
A Highly Profitable Betting Algorithm
The following betting algorithm has produced highly profitable results on a 53-18 SU mark good for 75% wins and 49-20-2 ATS record for 71.2% winning bets since 2004. The requirements are:
§ Bet on favorites that have won three of their last four games.
§ The Dog has won eight or more of their last 10 games.
Drilling deeper into my database and filtering out games by having the opponent having won 9 or more of their last 10 games has produced a remarkable 21-4 SU mark or 84% wins and 19-4-2 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Let's make our best bet on the 49ers -3 points for Week 13 action. Given that the 49ers are favored by just three points, it stands to reason that we may be able to make an additional pizza money bet on them at pick-em. In getting that opportunity we know the subset of the betting algorithm has seen these favorites win 75% of the time SU. I know I like that win percentage quite a bit.