I suppose Week 1 could have been worse from a results perspective, but I strive to be far better against the spread (totals is a different animal).
Just so you all have an overall understanding of the way I operate, I refuse to react significantly to what happens early in the season. For example, the Saints were this complete juggernaut entering Week 3 last year and predictably became the type of team we all thought they'd be shortly after. We enter every season with these fully fleshed out thoughts from everything that happened during the offseason and everything we've seen and heard from training camp, but too often I think we just outright replace arguably the most crucial element of the equation -- what happened last season -- too quickly. That obviously sounds contradictory because 2024 is not 2025, but what I mean to say is the collective NFL conscience is so starved for anything to react to that we act like it's the only thing to react to. There's obviously players who improve or coaching situations that change, but by and large the NFL doesn't look dramatically different year to year, or at least not early on.
It's dumb to be stubborn about certain things, but I think this applies to everyone, including myself: stick to what your gut tells you from the start of the year. I might have more confidence on certain leans or situations than others, but I never want to be in a spot where I'm regretting after the fact that I overcorrected on a situation.
2025 Season Record ATS: 8-8
2025 Season Record on Totals: 6-10
Date | Game Matchup | Week 1 Picks |
Thursday, September 11 | Commanders vs. Packers | Packers -3.5, under 48.5 |
Sunday, September 14 | Browns vs. Ravens | Ravens -11.5, over 45.5 |
Sunday, September 14 | Jaguars vs. Bengals | Bengals -3.5, over 48.5 |
Sunday, September 14 | Giants vs. Cowboys | Giants +5.5, under 44.5 |
Sunday, September 14 | Bears vs. Lions | Bears +5.5, over 46.5 |
Sunday, September 14 | Patriots vs. Dolphins | Patriots +1.5, under 43.5 |
Sunday, September 14 | 49ers vs. Saints | 49ers -3.5, under 42.5 |
Sunday, September 14 | Bills vs. Jets | Bills -7, over 46.5 |
Sunday, September 14 | Seahawks vs. Steelers | Steelers -3, over 40.5 |
Sunday, September 14 | Rams vs. Titans | Rams -5.5, under 41.5 |
Sunday, September 14 | Panthers vs. Cardinals | Panthers +6.5, under 44.5 |
Sunday, September 14 | Broncos vs. Colts | Broncos -2.5, over 42.5 |
Sunday, September 14 | Eagles vs. Chiefs | Eagles -1.5, over 46.5 |
Sunday, September 14 | Falcons vs. Vikings | Vikings -3.5, over 44.5 |
Monday, September 15 | Buccaneers vs. Texans | Buccaneers +2.5, over 42.5 |
Monday, September 15 | Chargers vs. Raiders | Chargers -3.5, under 46.5 |
NFL Week 2 Predictions
In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 2 odds and our predictions for each NFL game. Home teams are listed last.
Commanders vs.
Packers
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Commanders vs. Packers | Packers -3.5 | Green Bay -180; Washington +150 | 48.5 |
I'm about as biased of a Packers fan as you will get, but it's almost always slanted to pessimism. I didn't want to allow myself belief this team could be anything better than the NFC's version of a well-coached Dolphins team. Beating up on bad teams is the Matt LaFleur special, but to have the personnel and gumption to beat the truly best hasn't been something the Packers have comfortably done in a half decade. Watching what this team did to the Lions Week 1 might have changed something in me. For better or for worse, I think I've been converted for 2025.
Spread Pick: Packers -3.5
Total Pick: Under 48.5
Browns vs.
Ravens
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Browns vs. Ravens | Ravens -11.5 | Baltimore -700; Cleveland +500 | 45.5 |
I don't want anything to do with this game. Cleveland was in a similar spot last year against the Ravens and outright won the game. AFC North games are always so needlessly complicated. I'll take the Ravens because they should run roughshod on the Browns, but I have zero confidence it'll actually play out that way Sunday.
Spread Pick: Ravens -11.5
Total Pick: Over 45.5
Jaguars vs.
Bengals
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Jaguars vs. Bengals | Bengals -3.5 | Cincinnati -170; Jacksonville +142 | 48.5 |
Well, I got Zac Taylor'd again. Why I ever assume Cincinnati will ever look competent Week 1 is beyond me, but I keep falling for the bit hook, line and sinker. The only good news is that Jacksonville is effectively a less-talented version of that same conundrum, so both teams' dumbness should just even out right?
Spread Pick: Bengals -3.5
Total Pick: Over 48.5
Giants vs.
Cowboys
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Giants vs. Cowboys | Cowboys -5.5 | Dallas -250; New York +200 | 44.5 |
I'd be a bit surprised if the Cowboys ran away with this one. That Dallas played relatively well against the defending Super Bowl champions last Thursday feels like one of those results we'll look back at in November and just chalk up to early-season weirdness. Don't get me wrong, there's nothing really pleasing about the Giants either, but I think in a battle between two high-grade wet paper towels, there shouldn't be such an overwhelming assumption either way
Spread Pick: Giants +5.5
Total Pick: Under 44.5
Bears vs.
Lions
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Bears vs. Lions | Lions -5.5 | Detroit -250; Chicago +205 | 46.5 |
If this had been any other coach for Chicago, I would have snap-called the Lions without even thinking. But if Ben Johnson is any type of leader that he's referred to as, his team should be ready for Johnson's homecoming in Week 2. I never know how to quantify that stuff other than to acknowledge that it matters. This is a complete stay away from me, and one that I hope just ends up being an interesting game.
Spread Pick: Bears +5.5
Total Pick: Over 46.5
Patriots vs.
Dolphins
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Patriots vs. Dolphins | Dolphins -1.5 | Miami -118; New England -102 | 43.5 |
I was comically wrong on the Dolphins last week, so much so that I don't know how to react moving forward. Typically you're told not to overreact and keep your preseason expectations somewhat grounded through the first month of the NFL season, but what happens when the worst-case scenarios literally unfold in Week 1? Everyone has bad days, but I sorta think this is just who Miami is this year. The only issue is that New England doesn't seem much better to me and home field is supposed to mean something in divisional games. Ugh, I guess it's time to hope Drake Maye becomes the guy Boston fans already thought he was.
Spread Pick: Patriots +1.5
Total Pick: Under 43.5
49ers vs.
Saints
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
49ers vs. Saints | 49ers -3.5 | San Francisco -218; New Orleans +180 | 42.5 |
I'm assuming we'll find out Wednesday or Thursday evening whether Brock Purdy (toe/shoulder) will be available for this game. I think the 49ers win either way, but I was somewhat impressed with how New Orleans hung around against the Cardinals and should Mac Jones start I'm more worried about the spread. This depleted version of San Francisco might be better than their divisional rival, but I think Kyle Shanahan just creates an inertia of a coaching advantage that's tough to overcome, even with a disparity in roster talent.
Spread Pick: 49ers -3.5
Total Pick: Under 42.5
Bills vs.
Jets
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Bills vs. Jets | Bills -7 | Buffalo -325; New York +260 | 46.5 |
I was really impressed that the potential of this Justin Fields-led offense immediately popped in Week 1, but that also begs the question if it was just a Pittsburgh defense thing, or something more. Until we see concrete proof that Week 1 was the new norm, I just have to default to Josh Allen and company taking care of business, but this is sneakily one of those games that I think will definitely change my mindset on multiple teams following Week 2.
Spread Pick: Bills -7
Total Pick: Over 46.5
Seahawks vs.
Steelers
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Seahawks vs. Steelers | Steelers -3 | Pittsburgh -155; Seattle +130 | 40.5 |
These are the games that Mike Tomlin just wins. I wasn't really impressed with anything Seattle did last week, but then again Pittsburgh's defense was absolutely carved up by Fields of all people. Something has to give, and in those situations I'll typically default to the offense just carrying over. If nothing else, that sort of game script would just assume the total is completely mispriced.
Spread Pick: Steelers -3
Total Pick: Over 40.5
Rams vs.
Titans
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Rams vs. Titans | Rams -5.5 | Los Angeles -230; Tennessee +190 | 41.5 |
A rematch of the first Super Bowl that I vividly remember! If this game happened in Week 13 I'd slam the over, but in Cam Ward's second start I think there's still some warts to clean up. I'm not entirely surprised the Rams struggled to score points against the Texans, but if the issue is present against a worse AFC South foe this week, that'll be cause for concern.
Spread Pick: Rams -5.5
Total Pick: Under 41.5
Panthers vs.
Cardinals
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Panthers vs. Cardinals | Cardinals -6.5 | Arizona -285; Carolina +230 | 44.5 |
I'm absolutely not a fan of Bryce Young, but I don't think the Panthers are as bad as the overreaction seems to be Week 1. Or maybe this is just a post about Kyler Murray not being that guy either. Either way, I don't think Arizona is the type of team to be a touchdown favorite against a six-ish win team.
Spread Pick: Panthers +6.5
Total Pick: Under 44.5
Broncos vs.
Colts
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Broncos vs. Colts | Broncos -2.5 | Denver -135; Indianapolis +114 | 42.5 |
I'm doubling down on my take that the Colts are not a serious team. They just faced an opponent that seems somehow is comically worse. I was never a believer in the Broncos being a stone-cold lock of an AFC playoff factor like the public perception seemed to be, but it was a little surprising to see them struggle to the degree they did against the Titans last week. Or at least it would be if we actually think Denver is that sort of big hitter in the AFC.
Spread Pick: Broncos -2.5
Total Pick: Over 42.5
Eagles vs.
Chiefs
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Eagles vs. Chiefs | Eagles -1.5 | Philadelphia -125; Kansas City +105 | 46.5 |
Just like last week with the Bills/Ravens, let's just enjoy this game for what it is. Patrick Mahomes will be a home underdog for just the second time ever in his career, but I'd argue he would have been anyway even if Xavier Worthy (shoulder) would have been healthy and Kansas City looked competent in Brazil. The Eagles are just a better team, and they were seven months ago too.
Spread Pick: Eagles -1.5
Total Pick: Over 46.5
Falcons vs.
Vikings
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Falcons vs. Vikings | Vikings -3.5 | Minnesota -205; Atlanta +170 | 44.5 |
I despise the half point here. Nothing happened Monday to convince me J.J. McCarthy is at all the guy despite comically being named NFC Offensive Player of the Week. The only issue is that Michael Penix hardly inspired confidence against the Buccaneers last week either. I really think Brian Flores is just a legitimate weapon from a coordinator perspective and until the coaching advantage is level, I'll always default to Flores winning these types of games outright.
Spread Pick: Vikings -3.5
Total Pick: Over 44.5
Buccaneers vs.
Texans
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Buccaneers vs. Texans | Texans -2.5 | Houston -135; Tampa Bay +114 | 42.5 |
One of two Monday night games this week, I'll buy the dip a bit on Tampa Bay. I still think the Texans are a playoff caliber team, but it's hard to implement the best offensive scheme right off the rip. I know that statement could apply to the Buccaneers as well, but I know what I'm getting for better or for worse with Baker Mayfield.
Spread Pick: Buccaneers +2.5
Total Pick: Over 42.5
Chargers vs.
Raiders
Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
Chargers vs. Raiders | Chargers -3.5 | Los Angeles -185; Las Vegas +154 | 46.5 |
This might be the easiest decision of the entire slate. Yes, Geno Smith and company did well against a good New England defense. But how could you watch Justin Herbert on Friday and think this is anything but a massive blowout in favor of the Chargers?
Spread Pick: Chargers -3.5
Total Pick: Under 46.5
NFL Week 2 Best Bets
Next, we take a look at our favorite Week 2 NFL best bets at the best NFL betting sites. Last week was predictably horrendous, but we'll try and change things around on a new week. While I'm obligated to pick against the spread above, the best bets section highlights my favorite leans and also tries to take advantage of a few of the parlay props offered as of this writing.
BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 2
BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 2. If you're not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Week 2 at BetMGM.
- Eagles -1 (-110)
- JAC/CIN over 48.5 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 2
Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for NFL Week 2. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.
- Boosts > Zach Ertz and Tucker Kraft to each score a touchdown (+1000)
- Broncos -2 (-110)
DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 2
The DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for Week 2 of the NFL season. Here are our best picks available at the DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
- (+180) Seven-point teaser with Bengals (+3.5), Rams (+1.5), Lions (+1.5) and Broncos (+4.5)
- Jordan Love over 2+ passing touchdowns (-115)
FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 2
One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.
- Weekly Specials > Malik Nabers and CeeDee Lamb to combine for 175+ receiving yards (+750)
- Steelers first scoring play = field goal (+100)
BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 2
BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on NFL Week 2.
- Three-item parlay (+1200) - Zach Ertz anytime touchdown, Jayden Daniels over 44.5 rushing yards and Austin Ekeler over 23.5 receiving yards
Fanatics Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 2
For bettors looking for a unique way to wager, try the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code for our Week 1 NFL picks.
- 49ers -3.5 (+105)
Look ahead at the NFL Week 3 odds as well, if you're interested in getting ahead of the line movement.