OwnersBox NFL DFS: Week 10 Picks

OwnersBox NFL DFS: Week 10 Picks

This article is part of our DFS NFL series.

OwnersBox's SuperFlex contests provide participants with a chance to roster up to two quarterbacks per lineup, opening up the opportunity for major scoring boosts and a more entertaining fantasy sweat overall.

Each week of the NFL regular season, we'll break down appealing candidates in the main Sunday slate for OwnersBox's NFL SuperFlex DFS contests. 

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady, TB at WAS ($7,800)

A refreshed Brady coming off a bye week and looking to atone for a poor performance is a dangerous foe. Making the scenario even more enticing, Brady is facing a weak Washington secondary. Washington has allowed an NFL-high 286.8 passing yards per game (305.8 per home contest) and 12.2 yards per completion at home. Meanwhile, Brady is averaging a hefty 31.5 fantasy points per game and has 39 completions of over 20 yards in just eight games, along with multiple touchdown passes in four straight games.

Washington has done a reasonably good job limiting big plays through the air – their eight percent explosive pass play rate allowed ranks the Football Team in the top half of the league – but Brady is undoubtedly adaptable. Even though the future Hall of Famer might be working without Chris Godwin (foot), Antonio Brown (ankle) and Rob Gronkowski (back), Brady's aggressive play and Washington's generous pass defense (20:4 TD:INT to QBs) makes him an appealing option.

Dak Prescott, DAL vs. ATL ($6,900)

It's never a bad idea to consider a talented player in tournaments a week after a lackluster performance, especially if that performance also led to a salary drop. Such is the case with Prescott in Week 10, as he's coming off an atypically poor afternoon against the Broncos where he completed under 50.0 percent of his throws. Prescott gets a more palatable on-paper matchup against the Falcons, who have allowed 243.8 passing yards per game overall and a 67.8 percent completion rate on the road.

Prescott is averaging 25.9 fantasy points per game and has multiple touchdown passes in five straight contests while also helping lead the Cowboys to a No. 5 ranking in explosive play rate (11 percent). Prescott is averaging 8.0 yards per attempt and he's facing a Falcons defense that's facilitated a 17:3 TD:INT to quarterbacks while allowing a 66.0 percent completion rate and seven touchdowns in the short and deep right portions of the field where Prescott has an 11:2 TD:INT for the season.

ALSO CONSIDER: Derek Carr, LVR vs. KC ($6.300)

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor, IND vs. JAC ($7,600)

Taylor is on a blistering run that's seen him score between 20 to 33 fantasy points in five of the last six games, a sample that includes four 100-yard efforts and a whopping nine total touchdowns (eight rushing, one receiving). The second-year back now faces a Jaguars squad that he decimated for 275 yards and two touchdowns at 7.1 yards per carry over two games during his rookie campaign. Taylor has yet to clear 20 carries in a game this season, but with an average of 5.9 yards per tote and an elite 18.6 percent broken-tackle rate, that's hardly been an issue in terms of fantasy production.

The Jaguars are a much-improved team against the run, allowing just 103.4 rushing yards per game and 3.5  yards per carry to running backs. However, only the Browns' offensive line facilitates more RB yards per carry than the Colts' rate of 5.3, and the fact Taylor is gaining an impressive average of 3.1 yards after contact certainly supports the notion he can overcome a difficult matchup. Taylor also has a consistent role in the passing game, posting five multi-catch tallies in the last six games, a span that includes 52- and 116-yard efforts through the air.

Dalvin Cook, MIN at LAC ($7,300)

Cook found a way to make a fantasy impact in Week 9 against the Ravens despite not getting into the end zone, as he racked up 110 rushing yards and 15 fantasy points. He now draws one of the softest matchups against the run in the league. The Chargers have allowed an NFL-high 161.6 rushing yards per contest and the second-most rushing TDs (11) to running backs.

Cook has four hauls of 15 fantasy points or more in six games, posting a trio of 100-yard efforts and five multi-catch tallies. The Vikings' offensive line has been good about getting running backs into the second level and beyond of a defense, as Minnesota ranks itop 10 in both categories. Meanwhile, the Chargers have allowed an NFL-high 4.86 RB yards per carry and rank in the bottom in both of those sub-categories, making this a particularly tantalizing matchup for Cook.

ALSO CONSIDER: Najee Harris, PIT vs. DET ($7,000); Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL at DAL ($6,900) 

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans, TB at WAS ($6,800)

Evans has scored touchdowns in three of four games, and he has eclipsed 29 fantasy points twice in that four-game stretch. The Bucs wideout will have a chance to take advantage of the same favorable matchup against Washington that was detailed in Brady's entry.

With the possibility that both Godwin and Brown sit out Sunday's game, Evans could be the subject of Brady's attention even more than usual. Naturally, he'll also see some extra defensive attention if that comes to pass, but the veteran will enjoy a significant size mismatch on cornerbacks Kendall Fuller and William Jackson. Evans should continue to benefit from a role that's seen him average 14.7 air yards per target this season.

Mike Williams, LAC vs. MIN ($6,100)

Williams is another example of a talented player with plenty of upside that's likely to be lower-rostered than usual because of an ongoing funk. The talented but slumping wideout has scored between 3-7 fantasy points in his last three contests, but he has four tallies of 22 fantasy points or more on the season. Additionally, the Vikings are the type of secondary that could certainly facilitate a resurgence, as they've allowed 257.2 passing yards per game and 11.1 yards per completion.

Williams is still drawing 21.4 percent share of the Chargers' targets and he's being targeted on a healthy 17.0 percent of his routes. Minnesota is giving up 13.9 yards per catch to wideouts while allowing 10 touchdowns to the position in eight games. Williams' 6-foot-4 frame and more voluminous role in new coordinator Joe Lombardi's offense has seen him both clock an impressive 15.5 yards per grab while already matching the 11 red-zone targets he saw in 15 games last season.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE at NE ($4,700)

Peoples-Jones wasted no time thriving as the Browns' new downfield threat in light of Odell Beckham's purging from the roster, recording a 60-yard touchdown grab against the Bengals. Peoples-Jones' ability to get past defenders has resulted in three double-digit fantasy-point tallies over the last four games, and the second-year speedster has seen six of his 15 grabs go for 20 yards or more. The Patriots may not intuitively shape up as an appealing matchup, but New England has allowed the ninth-highest yards per completion (11.1).

Peoples-Jones is drawing an elevated 17.5-yard aDOT and has combined that with a very impressive 83.3 percent catch rate, which has allowed him to average an outstanding 20.9 yards per reception. The Patriots are giving up 13.3 yards per grab to wideouts and rank right in the middle of the league with a nine percent explosive pass play rate allowed, setting this up as a potential friendly spot for Peoples-Jones if he sees at least 5-7 targets.

ALSO CONSIDER: A.J. Brown, TEN vs. NO ($6,800); Chris Godwin, TB at WAS ($6,700)

Tight Ends

Darren Waller, LVR vs. KC ($6,500)

Waller is coming off his best game since the season opener, as he posted a 7-92 line on 11 targets against the Giants in Week 9. Waller has double-digit fantasy-point tallies in all but one contest this season, and he receives a matchup that was both highly favorable to him last season and continues to be one tight ends consistently thrive against during the current campaign.

Waller tore through Kansas City twice in 2020, totaling 12 receptions, 136 yards and two TDs. Tight ends have posted a 48-617-6 line and a 78.7 percent catch rate against the Chiefs through the first nine games of the 2021 campaign. There's also an abundance of synergy between the areas of the field the Chiefs struggle to defend the most and Waller's typical route tree, as KC has given up 1,624 yards and 10 touchdowns in the three short passing windows, where Waller has seen 48 of his 64 targets.

Kyle Pitts, ATL at DAL ($5,800)

Pitts came back down to earth the last couple of games after posting a combined 16-282-1 line on 18 targets against the Jets and Dolphins in Weeks 5 and 7. The rookie has just three and nine fantasy points the last two games, but he's seen a solid 13 targets during that stretch and should be heavily involved against a Cowboys team that's had its share of troubles defending tight ends this season. The Cowboys have yielded a 77.8 percent catch rate and a 42-466-4 line to tight ends, and Dallas also ranks 28th in explosive pass play rate allowed (11 percent). Meanwhile, Pitts is claiming a robust 29.8 percent of the Falcons' air yards and has already recorded 11 receptions (out of 36 total)  of 20 or more yards.

ALSO CONSIDER: Dan Arnold, JAC at IND ($4,500)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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