Streaming Defenses: Picking a Week 13 Defense

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

Browns - This week the Browns travel to take on a Bills team that just got done traveling to Detroit because of poor weather conditions in Buffalo. QB Kyle Orton played well in that last game against the Jets, throwing two TDs and no interceptions with a 7.19 YPA, but then again that was almost to be expected, as the Jets rank 22nd in YPA (7.2). The Browns are a much better secondary than that, allowing just 6.2 YPA, which ranks seventh. They'll be without safety Tashaun Gipson, who is out for the season with a knee injury and led the league in interceptions with six. His loss will be difficult for the Browns to overcome, but again, they're facing Orton this week, not Aaron Rodgers. He has a special weapon in rookie WR Sammy Watkins, but he's not an elite playmaker, at least not yet. In his last three games he has 10 catches on 22 targets for 84 yards with no TDs. On the season his numbers are decent, but not consistent, which is what you'd expect from a rookie WR. The Browns have two good corners in Joe Haden and K'Waun Williams, so no matter who he faces, he's not likely to see a busted coverage. It's tough to get excited about the other Bills pass catchers, as WR Robert Woods and TE Scott Chandler are very hit-or-miss in their usage. As for the ground game, this is where things get hairy for the Browns, as they give up 4.4 YPC, which ranks tied for 22nd in the league. That figure has improved to 3.7 YPC in their last three games though, which is reason for optimism that things may be turning around. RB Fred Jackson is back from his groin injury, but didn't do much against the Jets this past week, with a 3.2 YPC and long run of seven yards. The Jets are an excellent run defense, so those numbers are understandable, as are the ho-hum numbers his teammates put up. Between Jackson, Anthony Dixon, and Bryce Brown, the Bills have an average to below average running game, with 3.9 YPC on the season and 4.0 YPC in their last three games. The only fear in this game is that Gipson's loss is more significant that I'm taking into account and Watkins comes up with a big game. Outside of that, Orton isn't anything special and it wouldn't be surprising to see him turn the ball over a couple of times, in a game that has a low projected total. Vegas has this over/under set at 41 with the Bills favored by 2.5, which puts this at about a 22-19 game. Facing the Bills on the road, the Browns defense/special teams has an ownership of 24.2 percent at ESPN and 35 percent at Yahoo.

Rams - The Raiders finally won their first game in over a year this past Thursday, when they beat the Chiefs 24-20 at home. And while it's great that they finally got that monkey off their back, consider this: since the start of the 2012 season, the Raiders have won two road games, at 2-19. This might be win number three, but even if it is, do you have much confidence that it'll be in any sort of a dominant fashion? Rookie QB Derek Carr has been awful this season with a 5.54 YPA, which ranks 32nd in the league. He's also 27th in completion percentage (59.1) and 29th in passer rating (76.7). I would say something nice or complementary about his play this season, but there's just not much to choose from. In his defense, his weapons are among the worst in the league, as evidenced by the fact that WR James Jones leads the team catches, targets, receiving yards, first downs, and TDs. How the coaching staff hasn't decided to lean more heavily on the much younger, explosive, and physically gifted Andre Holmes is a mystery. This past week he was targeted 10 times, which is step in the right direction. I thought the team might be onto something with TE Mychal Rivera, after he saw 28 targets over three games in Weeks 8, 9, and 10, but then he saw just five targets against the Chargers and four targets against the Chiefs. The Rams are allowing 7.5 YPA, which ranks 28th in the league, but again, to what degree do you expect the Raiders to be able to take advantage of this weakness? Moreover, the Rams are at least rushing the passer well as of late with 2.7 sacks per game in their last three games, which is marked improvement from their slow start to the season. On the ground, this may be a very interesting matchup, as RB Latavius Murray had four carries for 112 yards with two TDs against the Chiefs, before leaving with a concussion. He's still not out of the concussion protocol as of Tuesday night, but is expected to gain clearance by week's end and play in this game. He is clearly the team's best option at RB and should be force fed the ball by the Raiders in this game, as his quickness and open field speed are superior to all other options. As for the Rams run defense, they've really excelled of late, holding teams to just 3.4 YPC in their last three games, which is excellent. On the season, their numbers are average, giving up 4.4 YPC, but again, this is a unit that got off to an extremely slow start this season for whatever reason, but has turned things around of late and is playing much more like the unit many expected coming into this season. Murray is a real threat and is worth keeping eyes on, as is Marcell Reece, who filled in nicely, after Murray left last week's game. He's a FB by position, but has good wiggle and presents a higher floor than Darren McFadden or Maurice Jones-Drew, both of whom should be released by the team. I'm not excited to tout the Rams defense, but it's the Raiders and coming off last week's win, I cannot see them focused ready to win two in a row, heck they couldn't even handle success well last week, as two Raiders players celebrated a sack mid-field, as the Chiefs ran a play 15 yards behind them for a comical offsides penalty. Vegas has this over/under set at 43 with the Rams favored by 7, which puts this at about a 25-18 game. Facing the Raiders at home, the Rams defense/special teams has an ownership of 24.1 percent at ESPN and 45 percent at Yahoo.

Ravens - Coming off a short week, after beating the Saints on the road, the Ravens come home to face the Chargers, who have been an average to below average offense on the road this season, averaging just 5.1 YPP. QB Philip Rivers is rumored to be dealing with a rib/chest injury that may or may not be significant. In his last three games he has two touchdowns and four interceptions, though most of that poor production came against the Dolphins, who feature one of the best pass defenses in the league. Rivers looked much more like himself against the Rams last week with a 8.31 YPA and 82.9 completion percentage. Coming off the bye, I was concerned for the Ravens pass defense against Drew Brees and for good reason, as he ripped off three TDs and a 9.3 YPA against them, but was also picked for TD and sacked four times. Rivers has done well to not be sacked too many times this season, but I would still expect the Ravens to get after him, as they rank eighth in sacks per game (2.6) on the season and have upped that number to 4.0 sacks per game in their last three contests. Their pass defense has fallen on hard times of late with the loss of CB Jimmy Smith (foot). On the season they're ranked tied for 18th in YPA (7.1), but that figure has jumped to 7.9 in their last three games. As for Rivers' pass catchers, WR Keenan Allen has shaken off his slow start and has been targets 53 times over the last five games with 33 catches for 345 yards and two TDs. WR Malcolm Floyd and TE Antonio Gates haven't been targeted nearly as often or enjoyed as much success. While Jimmy Graham got over on them on MNF, the Ravens have been excellent against TEs this season, giving up less than 50 yards a game and four TDs total. I would not expect for Gates to have a big game here, if you're worried about him in this matchup. As for the running game, RB Ryan Mathews (knee) looks to be over that injury, though he did miss time this past week with a new shoulder ailment. He should be fine for this game, though he'll be facing a stout Ravens run defense that ranks sixth in YPC (3.7) and shutdown the Saints this past week. RB Branden Oliver has been a somewhat forgotten man lately, but I still expect him to cause problems out of the backfield on pass plays. The fear in this game is that the Chargers turned a corner, after their bye week, and Rivers is over whatever rib/chest ailment he's been dealing with. Still, on the road, I expect the Chargers to play less than their best, against a Ravens team that has allowed the sixth fewest YPP at home this season (4.8). Vegas has this over/under set at 46 with the Ravens favored by 5.5, which puts this at about a 26-20 game. Facing the Chargers at home, the Ravens defense/special teams has an ownership of 34.5 percent at ESPN and 47 percent at Yahoo.

Vikings - Coming off a bye week, the Panthers have won one game since Week 2 and rank 28th in offensive YPP (5.0). If that isn't a recipe for a defense to be streamed against, I don't know what is. QB Cam Newton ranks 17th in YPA (7.18), 29th in completion percentage (58.6), and 27th in passer rating (80.3). He has six games this season with one or less TD and that includes rushing. He's been hobbled by various injuries, but it's clear, even when healthy, he's having a sub-par season. His weapons have much to do with this, as rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin and veteran TE Greg Olsen can't do it all by themselves, though they try to on a weekly basis. The two combine for over 52 percent of the team's receiving yards and over 81 percent of the receiving TDs on the season, to put things in perspective. So when one or both have an off game, the entire passing game suffers greatly. The Vikings rank tied for 13th in YPA (6.8) and are tied for the fourth most sacks per game (2.8), so their pass rush/defense should get good pressure on Newton, who is third in most sacks taken this season (32). Coming off the bye, I'd expect Newton to be more of a running threat than he has been in the past, if only because he's had extra time to rest. Even still, I don't expect his legs to be a great threat, as he's averaging 4.6 YPC and his long run on the season is just 15 yards, which tells you something. As for the Panthers RBs, does it really matter which one is getting the carries, when neither has been productive this season? The Panthers as a team rank 26th in YPC (3.7) and DeAngelo Williams (3.5) and Jonathan Stewart (3.8) are the main reasons why. Football Outsiders ranks the Panthers run blocking 29th in the league, while the Vikings rank tied for 18th in YPC (4.3), so this at worst should be a push, when it comes to matchups. The only thing that gives me some pause in this matchup is the fact that the Panthers are coming off a bye and are a half game out of first place, so they might actually be motivated to win this game, where as most 3-7-1 teams would be packing it in and looking to evaluate the depths of the roster. Still, the Vikings looked good last week against Green Bay and at home, should again at minimum, not burn any owners. Vegas has this over/under set at 43 with the Vikings favored by 3, which puts this at about a 23-20 game. Facing the Panthers at home, the Vikings defense/special teams has an ownership of 15.7 percent at ESPN and 16 percent at Yahoo.

Bears - Going into this week, the Lions haven't scored a TD in their last eight quarters of football. This week they'll likely change that, with this game having an over/under of 47 points, but it's still not a positive trend. Rather, it's one to take a chance on with the Bears defense, who themselves have shown some improvement lately, though their last two games have come against the offensively challenged Vikings and Bucs, both at home. This game will come on the road and is on a short week, so it may give some owners pause, but consider the level of play QB Matthew Stafford has delivered this season… he ranks 20th in YPA (7.09), 28th in completion percentage (58.8), 26th in passer rating (81.0), and is second in the league for most sacks taken (33). While the Bears rank 29th in YPA (7.6), this is about the tastiest matchup they'll see from a QB that likes to take chances and opens himself up to not only sacks, which lead to fumbles, but poor decision making, which leads to interceptions. Of course there will be WR Calvin Johnson to deal with, who is a mismatch nightmare, but again, as long as he doesn't go crazy, the Bears should be able to contain the underneath stuff from WR Golden Tate. And that's about where the passing game stops, as the Lions don't have a reliable third option at their disposal. The Lions running game should be at least average with Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, and Theo Riddick, but instead it's become a mess with Bush dealing with injuries and Bell not being able to doing anything, once he reaches the second level of defenders. The Lions have three runs of 20 yards or more, which is pretty sad. It's not surprising that they're second to last in YPC (3.3) this season. Bush should play in this game, which will help the running game, but it's anyone's guess as to how productive he'll be coming off his ankle injury. The only worry in this game is that the Bears leaky secondary allows Megatron to repeatedly get over on them and this opens up the run game and the flood gates open up on the Bears, which is a realistic outcome to me. Again though, the Lions' offense has been in hibernation for some time now and it's worth the risk to see if they will sleep walk into this one. Vegas has this over/under set at 47 with the Lions favored by 7, which puts this at about a 27-20 game. Facing the Lions on the road, the Bears defense/special teams has an ownership of 16.4 percent at ESPN and 42 percent at Yahoo.

Here are my rankings for this week, the next four weeks and the remainder of the season:

Finally, heres how the picks from the previous week faired:

Ravens (@ Saints) - 27 points allowed, 4 sacks, 1 interception, 1 TD

Cowboys (@ Giants) - 28 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 interception

Browns (@ Falcons) - 24 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery

Bears (vs Bucs) - 13 points allowed, 5 sacks, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries

Jets (vs Bills) - 38 points allowed, 1 sack