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Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Week 5
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The Dallas Cowboys responded to their first taste of adversity this season in convincing fashion in Week 4, as they thumped the Patriots by a 38-3 score after being upset by the Cardinals in Week 3. Dallas moved to 3-1 with the win, affording them plenty of momentum heading into a showdown against their longtime rival, and of late, postseason tormentor.
The 49ers had their own tussle with the feisty Cardinals in Week 4 but survived, recording a victory going away by a 35-16 margin. Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey have both looked like MVP candidates while spearheading the club's 4-0 start, and San Francisco has made a convincing argument to be labeled as the best team in the league to this point.
Cowboys @ 49ers Betting Odds for Week 5
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: 49ers -184 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Cowboys +160 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Point spread: 49ers -3.5 (PointsBet Sportsbook)/ Cowboys +3.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Totals: Over 45 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Under 45 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The 49ers have been favorites for this game since the line was first released in the summer, when San Fran was listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. That number has only risen thanks to the Niners' impeccable start to the season, although the Cowboys' own impressive body of work has helped limit that rise of that number to 3.5 as of Friday night.
Meanwhile, the projected total has been on somewhat of a roller-coaster trajectory. It opened at 47 points this summer before dipping as low as 44.5 at the beginning of the week. However, the public has coaxed that number back up throughout the week, with it toggling between 45 and 45.5.
Cowboys @ 49ers Betting Picks This Week
The Cowboys have already shown the proper deference to the 49ers during this week, and in a way, they don't have much of a choice considering San Francisco's recent success against them and the fact Kyle Shanahan's squad is undefeated, having just beaten the Cardinals team that toppled Dallas for its only loss by 19 points. However, there's also little doubt Dak Prescott and company feel they can match San Fran point for point, and see this as the early litmus test that can legitimize their Super Bowl aspirations if they pass it.
Beyond the caution against giving the Niners any bulletin-board material, this Cowboys' squad has plenty of reason to believe it can match up with anyone after its first four games. The fascinating game within the game here will be the two juggernaut defenses, and digging further, the Micah Parsons-Nick Bosa rivalry. Both players undoubtedly feel they're the best in the league at getting to the quarterback, and each will have even more incentive than usual to wreak havoc in this spot. Bosa particularly has gotten off to an atypically slow start after amassing 34 sacks in the last two seasons, and there'd be no better spot for a breakout than in this nationally televised clash.
San Francisco is a tough out in any venue, and with this game having such a bright spotlight, it should have an especially raucous home crowd behind them. However, the Cowboys consider themselves battle-tested after posting an 11-6 road record over the previous two seasons. There's a young veteran core of talented players on either side of the ball, with several in the prime of their careers.
Dallas has lost to San Francisco by six and seven points in the aforementioned pair of encounters the last two postseasons, going into the fourth quarter with a 9-9 tie in this past January's game before eventually falling. Prescott threw for 206 yards in that contest and compiled 254 in the January 2022 wild-card game at AT&T Stadium.
The Niners have surrendered 225 passing yards per game over the last three contests, and Prescott has thrown for between 249 and 261 yards in that same span. San Francisco has also pushed teams toward the pass by surrendering a miserly 66 rushing yards per game and a microscopic 2.6 yards per carry to running backs specifically.
However, San Fran has yielded a 25-134-1 receiving line to running backs with teams sometimes subbing the short pass for the run, and Tony Pollard could therefore be more involved as a receiver than usual in this game, giving Prescott a good chance of getting to at least 200 passing yards.
While an outright upset is naturally a possibility, I'm looking at the Cowboys to at least keep any loss to a field goal or less and for Prescott to get to a very manageable yardage number.
Team vs./@ Opponent Best Bet: Same-Game Parlay- Cowboys +3.5 and Dak Prescott 200+ passing yards (+116 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cowboys @ 49ers Prediction
Cowboys 24, 49ers 22
As already alluded to, these current Cowboys have some atoning to do against Kyle Shanahan's Niners after back-to-back playoff ousters. Dallas has the diverse array of weapons to threaten San Francisco and the offensive line to help at least slow down the pass rush enough to give Prescott time to find those skilled players with his passes. Ultimately, I'm giving the Cowboys a chance to squeeze out what they undoubtedly envision as a signature win they need to establish credibility as a team capable of getting past the divisional round of the postseason.
