This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Week 4
The BetMGM bonus code features a great welcome offer for new customers. And as of Sept. 28, sports betting is live in Kentucky. Football fans in the bluegrass state can get in on the action at BetMGM with the BetMGM Kentucky sports betting promo.
The Kansas City Chiefs continued to put the undesirable start to their latest title-defense season behind them in Week 3, as they lambasted the Bears by a 41-10 score to move to 2-1.
Meanwhile, the malaise surrounding the Jets is such that they have more of a feel of a winless team than one that has a win over the Bills on its ledger. New York's play in Zach Wilson's first two full games as starter have given plenty of reason for concern, and the matchup is daunting on both sides of the ball for Robert Saleh's squad in this prime time battle.
Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets Betting Odds for Week 4
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Chiefs -400 (BetMGM Sportsbook)/ Jets +330 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Point spread: Chiefs -8.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Jets +9.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Totals: Over 41.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Under 41.5 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Needless to say, the spread for this game has undergone a drastic change since its initial release in the summer. At the time, what was assumed to be an Aaron Rodgers-led team was just a one-point underdog, but that number was up to seven by the beginning of last week. That figure got up as high as 10 on multiple occasions this week and has mostly toggled between 9 and 9.5 at most sportsbooks since then.
Naturally, the total has also seen a major downturn since originally being released at 49.5 points. It was down to 45 before Week 3, and after another poor performance by Wilson in Week 3, the figure has been as low as 41 points this week.
Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets Betting Picks This Week
The offensive mastermind that is Andy Reid and the right arm of Patrick Mahomes work so well in tandem that it's been somewhat forgotten Kansas City is adjusting to a new offensive coordinator in Matt Nagy after five seasons under Eric Bienemy.
Nagy had previous coaching experience under Reid in KC before his four-season stint as Bears head coach, but he'd only mentored Mahomes during his rookie 2017 campaign. Therefore, there's certainly an acclimation curve, but the star signal-caller and his versatile group of weapons already seem well on their way to mastering it if their Week 3 performance is any indication.
The Chiefs finished with 456 total yards at 6.1 yards per play, and that performance could well be a launchpad confidence-wise. However, there's no getting around the fact KC will be up against one of its stiffest defensive challenges of the season Sunday night, which should make for a much harder-fought victory for the defending champions.
In contrast to the underperformance of the offense prompted by Rodgers' season-ending Achilles injury, New York's defense has been about as good as expected in two of its first three games. The Jets are averaging an interception and two sacks per game, and in conjunction with what should be a raucous prime time home crowd, could certainly give Mahomes his share of troubles.
Nevertheless, KC's massive advantage at quarterback should eventually make the difference in this game, and it doesn't hurt that the Jets' defense is likely at its softest against tight ends. New York has allowed a 16-169-3 line to the position, potentially setting up a fruitful night for Travis Kelce.
The Chiefs have also applied above-average pressure – they have eight sacks through three games – while Wilson, who's completing just 52.4 percent of his passes, has already been taken down the same amount of times in less than three full games.
The Jets do have plenty of offensive talent in their own right that will eventually begin producing, and Wilson is feeling the heat like never before this week with even franchise legend Joe Namath calling for the franchise to conduct a big housecleaning.
Consequently, I can envision the hosts showing some signs of life out of desperation and a likely aggressive game plan, so I think a parlay that neutralizes the heavy juice on a heavy Chiefs moneyline bet and banks on a decent amount of points being scored is a prudent way to go.
Chiefs at Jets Best Bets: Same-Game Parlay- Chiefs moneyline and Over 41.5 points (+124 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets Opponent Prediction
Chiefs 27, Jets 17
As already detailed, the Chiefs' offense shouldn't enjoy the free rein it often does against lesser defenses when facing Gang Green. However, Mahomes and Co. will find their way to 2-to-3 touchdowns, and it certainly isn't out of the question for KC's defense getting in on the fun with a turnover off Wilson it turns into six points. New York will fight hard, but I still see a potential double-digit win here for the defending champs.