Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Chargers vs. Bears

Both the Chargers and Bears are dealing with their fair share of challenging injuries – the Bears without quarterback Justin Fields, the Chargers without standout receiver Mike Williams (and his understudy Josh Palmer (knee) a game-time decision – but the Bears' absence is greater and puts a lot of pressure on undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent as the Bears head west. Bagent played with poise to this point and that says something about him, but the passing production hasn't been anywhere near NFL-viable and it might be difficult for Chicago to keep games close with such a sputtering passing attack. Unless Bagent makes strides in this setting the Chargers are safe favorites, with the spread up to 9.5 points and the over/under at 45.5

QUARTERBACK

Tyson Bagent ($9000 DK, $12500 FD) is a novel story and a likable player, but an average target depth of 4.6 yards is not a serious way to run an offense. Bagent has a chance to take a step forward here, but if he doesn't it will probably leave Chicago in a difficult spot given that the Chargers should be able to score points and force the Bears to put more on Bagent in response. Bagent has moxie, but he'll need to prove here that he has actual passing talent too.

Justin Herbert ($12000 DK, $17000 FD) is the main reason the Chargers are so heavily favored, and it would be disappointing if he can't produce in this setting, against a Bears team with one of the league's worst pass rushers and not nearly good enough cornerback personnel to offset that. Jaylon Johnson is a strong corner for the Bears but the other targets are more vulnerable, and Herbert should have the benefit of playing most of the game either tied or with a lead. With that said, Herbert needs to be on his game since the Chargers, already without Williams, also might be without Joshua Palmer (knee) and Gerald Everett (hip).

RUNNING BACK

Austin Ekeler ($11200 DK, $14500 FD) has been a disappointment since returning from his high-ankle sprain but remains an excellent player and one who might need to pick up some targets with the Chargers route runners so depleted by injury. That's particularly true given that the Bears have allowed big pass-catching numbers to running backs, conceding 7.65 yards per target at a 76.9 catch rate and healthy target volume (52). Joshua Kelley ($5400 DK, $8500 FD) is the clear backup to Ekeler and should see 20 or more snaps, with that number potentially rising if the Chargers win in a blowout. Isaiah Spiller did not play any snaps against Kansas City last week.

The Bears backfield is more complicated. Rookie fourth-round pick Roschon Johnson ($6600 DK, $8500 FD) should be the primary passing-down back for Chicago and take some number of carries. D'Onta Foreman ($8000 DK, $13000 FD) might be the more capable runner as well as the primary ballcarrier for the Bears, but if they fall behind then it might tilt the snap count toward Johnson's favor, given his likely status as the main passing-down back. The Chargers run defense is probably no better than below average, so whoever gets carries could be in an enviable position in this game. It doesn't seem like the Bears should have any use for Darrynton Evans at this point now that Johnson is healthy, though he did split snaps with Foreman the prior two weeks.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

Joshua Palmer ($7000 DK, $10500 FD) is questionable with a knee injury, and it appears that he might not be fully healthy even if he does play. Particularly if Palmer is out, then Keenan Allen ($11800 DK, $16500 FD) is difficult to fade here. The slot coverage for Chicago is not good, and if Palmer can't do his usual lifting then the burden falls mostly on Allen. It's to the point that it's difficult to see the Chargers winning if Allen doesn't have a good game. Quentin Johnston ($4800 DK, $8000 FD) has yet to step up but the rookie first-round pick will likely see more opportunity in this game than any other to this point in the year, especially if Palmer is fully out. Gerald Everett ($5000 DK, $7500 FD) is also questionable, and if he's out then it sets up Donald Parham ($4200 DK, $7000 FD) for a major audition in a favorable spot. Stone Smartt is an interesting punt play at tight end if Everett is out, in which case Smartt could play over 30 snaps. Derius Davis is mostly a returner and gadget player, but the Chargers have designed touches for him in recent weeks.

DJ Moore ($9200 DK, $12000 FD) is limited by Bagent but Moore is a great player who can transcend difficult circumstances. The Chargers tend to play with big cushions at corner, moreover, which almost begs the Bears to throw Moore quick screens, maybe to some amount of effect. Darnell Mooney ($4000 DK, $8000 FD) is also a fine receiver but a much more modest one, and one much less likely to transcend limited quarterback play. Cole Kmet ($5600 DK, $10000 FD) might be an easier target for Bagent to hit than Mooney, and gadget rookie wideout Tyler Scott ($1200 DK, $7000 FD) is also hanging around as a rotational backup, playing 77 snaps over the last two weeks.

KICKER

Cameron Dicker ($5200 DK, $9000 FD) lacks long-range ability but is extremely accurate from 50 or less. With the Chargers heavily favored this should be a good spot for him. Dicker has only produced double-digit fantasy points in just two games this year, though, and they occurred in Weeks 1 and 2.

Cairo Santos ($4400 DK, $9000 FD) inherits a less favorable kicking script than Dicker does with the Chargers, but Santos is likely the better kicker. Santos has been one of the league's best in the past four years, and in 2023 he's made all 11 of his field goals, three of which were from 50 or longer. As much as Dicker has the better fantasy setup, Santos might have the better upside (16 fantasy points in Week 5).

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Bears ($3400 DK, $8500 FD) defense has a few promising players, maybe most notably standout corner Jaylon Johnson, and the potential absence of Palmer/Everett could make things easier for the Bears than normal. They're still a poor defense overall, though, and the Chargers have the homefield benefit.

The Chargers ($5800 DK, $9500) defense is in a great spot to overachieve here, as Bagent is likely a very limited NFL passer. The homefield advantage and variety of pass rushers at their disposal give the Chargers a good chance to apply pressure both on the scoreboard and on the quarterback. If the Bears fall behind quickly then things could get out of hand.