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Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for NFL Week 15
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The Ravens moved to 10-3 with a harder-than-expected overtime win over the Rams in Week 14, Baltimore's third straight victory.
The Jaguars, in contrast, fell for the second straight week, losing to the Browns by a 31-27 score on the road six days after an overtime defeat at the hands of the Bengals on Monday night in Week 13.
Both squads naturally have designs on the postseason, but Jacksonville is fortunate to still be hanging on to first place in the AFC South, a development made possible by both the Colts and Texans suffering Week 14 losses.
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds for NFL Week 15
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Ravens -165 (BetMGM Sportsbook) / Jaguars +160 (PointsBet Sportsbook)
Point spread: Ravens -3 (BetMGM Sportsbook) / Jaguars +3.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Totals: Over 42 points (PointsBet Sportsbook) / Under 42.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The spread for this game has undergone some noteworthy movement over time, with the Jaguars originally opening as 1-point favorites when the line was first released in the summer. However, with Trevor Lawrence suffering a high-ankle sprain in the Week 13 Monday night loss to the Bengals – an injury that was originally expected to sideline him multiple weeks – Jacksonville moved to as much as a 5.5-point underdog.
That number was bet back down to Jaguars +3.5 as it became apparent Lawrence was likely going to be back for this game if not Week 14, and following Sunday's games, the number has remained between 3 and 3.5 points.
The projected total sat at 39.5 points before Week 14, but it had spiked up to 43.5 by the beginning of this week. The number climbed as high as 44.5 before being bet back down to between 42 and 43 points as of Friday night.
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Picks This Week
The Ravens' defensive breakdowns against the Rams in Week 14 were admittedly somewhat alarming, but Baltimore's defense naturally remains one of the best in the league. John Harbaugh's club has secured 11 interceptions and has been elite at applying pressure, recording a league-high 49 sacks.
The Jaguars have a talented but less than healthy quarterback in Lawrence, who admirably bounced back from his ankle sprain to play six days later but who almost certainly didn't change the true recovery timetable of such an injury by sheer force of will. In other words, Lawrence isn't at full strength – which seemed to manifest itself in the three interceptions and season-low 56.0 percent completion rate and 5.1 yards per attempt he produced against the Browns – and that could be especially troublesome against a defense as aggressive as Baltimore's.
Further clouding the Jaguars' offensive outlook is the fact that Travis Etienne has struggled for running room behind an offensive line generating just 1.16 yards before first contact per carry and now faces a Ravens defensive line that's surrendered only 98.3 rushing yards per road contest. Lawrence is also still down key target Christian Kirk due to a groin injury, another factor that could have contributed to his struggles versus Cleveland.
On the other side, the Ravens bring a passing attack that's looked increasingly comfortable in coordinator Todd Monken's offense as the season has gone on and has a star in the making in rookie receiver Zay Flowers. The Jaguars are allowing an AFC-high 276.5 passing yards per game at 11.2 yards per completion, and they've also allowed over 4.0 yards per rush attempt and five rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks.
With Baltimore also having a deeper ground attack as rookie Keaton Mitchell continues to develop into a legitimate breakaway weapon, the Ravens have the Jaguars outclassed on both sides of the ball. As such, I'm in the camp of an outright win by the visitors, even if it's a razor-thin one.
Ravens at Jaguars Best Bets: Ravens moneyline (-165 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
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Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction
Ravens 24, Jaguars 20
The Ravens have the more formidable defense and a more versatile offense, two factors that I believe will be key to Baltimore pulling out a hard-fought win. It's also arguable the Ravens are the mentally tougher squad, and in a late-season spot like this against a quarterback that probably won't be 100 percent until the offseason, that could play a big role.