This article is part of our Survivor series.
The top picks survived last week, expect for Washington, which lost to the Giants for the second time this season. The Giants look like the worst team of all-time against everybody else, but against Washington somehow come alive. Go figure.
It's disappointing because Washington was my pick, so if I led you astray, apply for a refund at the link below. But not that disappointing because my Survivor season ended the week before.
In my pool, 14 were eliminated — all on Washington. Of the original 414, 25 remain.
On to Week 12.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TITANS | Panthers | 17.3% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 6.35 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 16.8% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 6.28 |
| Chiefs | RAIDERS | 15.7% | 355 | 78.0% | 3.45 |
| LIONS | Packers | 15.3% | 312.5 | 75.8% | 3.71 |
| COWBOYS | Commanders | 8.7% | 512.5 | 83.7% | 1.42 |
| Dolphins | JETS | 6.1% | 437.5 | 81.4% | 1.13 |
| Ravens | CHARGERS | 4.2% | 160 | 61.5% | 1.62 |
| EAGLES | Bills | 3.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 1.35 |
| 49ers | SEAHAWKS | 3.2% | 305 | 75.3% | 0.79 |
| BRONCOS | Browns | 2.2% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.98 |
| Patriots | GIANTS | 2.1% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.83 |
| COLTS | Buccaneers | 1.4% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.62 |
| Steelers | BENGALS | 1.2% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.57 |
| Jaguars | TEXANS | 0.5% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.24 |
| Rams | CARDINALS | 0.4% | 105 | 51.2% | 0.20 |
| Saints | FALCONS | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.05 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling"
The top picks survived last week, expect for Washington, which lost to the Giants for the second time this season. The Giants look like the worst team of all-time against everybody else, but against Washington somehow come alive. Go figure.
It's disappointing because Washington was my pick, so if I led you astray, apply for a refund at the link below. But not that disappointing because my Survivor season ended the week before.
In my pool, 14 were eliminated — all on Washington. Of the original 414, 25 remain.
On to Week 12.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TITANS | Panthers | 17.3% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 6.35 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 16.8% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 6.28 |
| Chiefs | RAIDERS | 15.7% | 355 | 78.0% | 3.45 |
| LIONS | Packers | 15.3% | 312.5 | 75.8% | 3.71 |
| COWBOYS | Commanders | 8.7% | 512.5 | 83.7% | 1.42 |
| Dolphins | JETS | 6.1% | 437.5 | 81.4% | 1.13 |
| Ravens | CHARGERS | 4.2% | 160 | 61.5% | 1.62 |
| EAGLES | Bills | 3.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 1.35 |
| 49ers | SEAHAWKS | 3.2% | 305 | 75.3% | 0.79 |
| BRONCOS | Browns | 2.2% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.98 |
| Patriots | GIANTS | 2.1% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.83 |
| COLTS | Buccaneers | 1.4% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.62 |
| Steelers | BENGALS | 1.2% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.57 |
| Jaguars | TEXANS | 0.5% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.24 |
| Rams | CARDINALS | 0.4% | 105 | 51.2% | 0.20 |
| Saints | FALCONS | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.05 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
With the four most-popular teams in the range of 15-17 percent, there's no pot-odds play this week. The top favorites — Dallas, Miami, Kansas City, Detroit, San Francisco — are likely unavailable (save for double-elimination pools, in which case, I'd go in the order below). After that, it's probably the Vikings or the Titans (unless the Ravens are available, which for me they are not). Not great. It's not called Survivor for nothin'.
If I was still surviving, I'd go with the Vikings (having used all those others). I trust them more than the Titans.
My Picks
Miami Dolphins
The Jets are going with Tim Boyle at quarterback this week. Good luck with that. The Dolphins have the speed to overcome a usually good Jets defense that just gave up 32 to the Bills. A rare Friday game in the NFL shouldn't be all that compelling.
Dallas Cowboys
Washington is probably salty for another NFC East matchup after surprisingly getting dumped by the Giants last week, but the Cowboys are better at every position and shouldn't have much trouble as long they don't get complacent, which they shouldn't at home on Thanksgiving.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are sputtering offensively, but the Aidan O'Connell-led Raiders are no juggernaut. Kansas City has allowed more than 21 points once all year (at Denver, Week 8, 24 points). The Raiders have scored more than 21 points once all year, and that came against the Giants (Week 9, 30 points), which doesn't really count. Patrick Mahomes and company don't need fireworks for the Chiefs to win.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are legit. The Chargers are not (and just lost Joey Bosa, making a bad defense worse). That's about the long and short of it. Maybe a cross-country flight causes one to pause, but the Ravens won't battle a home-field crowd in L.A.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings had their five-game winning streak snapped last week with a one-point loss at Denver. Joshua Dobbs has played well in his three games as Minnesota's QB (4/1 TD/INT). The Bears' lone win in their last four came against the lowly Panthers, and while Justin Fields' return gives hope, the offense is still without any other playmakers — the Bears lost to the Lions last week despite four takeaways. The Vikings in the playoff hunt at home on Monday night against a bad team seems like a good spot.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans have lost five of six, and three in a row in which they weren't all that competitive. But the schedule reads "vs. Panthers," which is good news for any team. I'd go with the Vikings first, but the Titans should win.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers should smack Seattle, but this is essentially a must-win game for the Seahawks if they have any hope of winning the division, and at home on Thanksgiving night should provide plenty of juice. The Niners are the safer pick, but it's not a no-brainer.
New England Patriots
Can the Giants win two in a row? Not likely. The Patriots aren't good and risking a Survivor pick on them is not ideal, but Tommy DeVito, despite his three-TD game last week, still has trust to earn.
Notable Omission:
Detroit Lions
This is the rare Thanksgiving when the Lions are actually good — the last time they were 8-2 on Thanksgiving, The Beatles had just released their first single (trivia question: what song was The Beatles' first single? Correct answer in the comments below gets a high-five.) — and this game sets up as a huge party where Detroit can show the country they're not the same old Lions. But Detroit's defense hasn't been all that stout for a month now, and the Packers have won two of three as their offense is starting to play better. It makes me uneasy.
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