This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was relatively uneventful in the world of Survivor, unless you had the Seahawks or Ravens. But few had the former and even fewer had the latter because Baltimore was heavily picked early in the season.
Unfortunately for those who faded the highly popular Dolphins, Miami won. Not picking Miami was still the right call from a pot-odds perspective.
In my pool, everyone survived for the second week in a row. Of the original 410 entrants, 11 remain.
On to Week 13.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | TEXANS | 33.9% | 296.5 | 74.8% | 8.55 |
| COWBOYS | Colts | 23.5% | 478 | 82.7% | 4.07 |
| Seahawks | RAMS | 19.9% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 4.55 |
| RAVENS | Broncos | 9.3% | 355 | 78.0% | 2.04 |
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | 4.2% | 172 | 63.2% | 1.54 |
| VIKINGS | Jets | 2.9% | 148 | 59.7% | 1.17 |
| Bills | PATRIOTS | 1.3% | 172 | 63.2% | 0.48 |
| Packers | BEARS | 1.1% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.39 |
| EAGLES | Titans | 0.9% | 201 | 66.8% | 0.30 |
| LIONS | Jaguars | 0.8% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.38 |
| 49ERS | Dolphins | 0.6% | 172 | 63.2% | 0.22 |
| FALCONS | Steelers | 0.3% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.14 |
| Chargers | RAIDERS | 0.3% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.14 |
| Commanders | GIANTS | 0.3% | 121.5 | 54.9% | 0.14 |
| Chiefs | BENGALS | 0.1% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.04 |
Unlike last week, there is
Last week was relatively uneventful in the world of Survivor, unless you had the Seahawks or Ravens. But few had the former and even fewer had the latter because Baltimore was heavily picked early in the season.
Unfortunately for those who faded the highly popular Dolphins, Miami won. Not picking Miami was still the right call from a pot-odds perspective.
In my pool, everyone survived for the second week in a row. Of the original 410 entrants, 11 remain.
On to Week 13.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | TEXANS | 33.9% | 296.5 | 74.8% | 8.55 |
| COWBOYS | Colts | 23.5% | 478 | 82.7% | 4.07 |
| Seahawks | RAMS | 19.9% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 4.55 |
| RAVENS | Broncos | 9.3% | 355 | 78.0% | 2.04 |
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | 4.2% | 172 | 63.2% | 1.54 |
| VIKINGS | Jets | 2.9% | 148 | 59.7% | 1.17 |
| Bills | PATRIOTS | 1.3% | 172 | 63.2% | 0.48 |
| Packers | BEARS | 1.1% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.39 |
| EAGLES | Titans | 0.9% | 201 | 66.8% | 0.30 |
| LIONS | Jaguars | 0.8% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.38 |
| 49ERS | Dolphins | 0.6% | 172 | 63.2% | 0.22 |
| FALCONS | Steelers | 0.3% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.14 |
| Chargers | RAIDERS | 0.3% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.14 |
| Commanders | GIANTS | 0.3% | 121.5 | 54.9% | 0.14 |
| Chiefs | BENGALS | 0.1% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.04 |
Unlike last week, there is no pot-odds play this week. So, pick who you think has the best chance at winning. This week's highest favored teams have one thing in common — truly terrible opponents. The Browns, Cowboys, Seahawks and Ravens stand to face little competition. But this is the NFL, where any team can beat any team any Sunday. Choose wisely.
Picks below are in order of preference. If none of the teams below are available, put your options in the comments and we'll hash it out.
My Picks
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are the week's biggest favorite against the Colts, who are on a short week after playing Monday. Indianapolis has lost consecutive games after an improbable victory in Jeff Saturday's coaching debut. Dallas has the best pass rush in the league, and the Colts have the potted plant at QB that is Matt Ryan. Indy has two road wins this year — at the Broncos and at the Raiders. The Cowboys are slightly better than those two juggernauts. Unfortunately, they're probably not available in most pools.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks choked at home last week against a bad Raiders team. Well, there's no Josh Jacobs this week nor Davante Adams nor Derek Carr nor ... anyone of note. The Rams have zero game-changing skill players. The Rams looked like a preseason team against the Chiefs last week — the game was never competitive. They had three passing yards at halftime and Bryce Perkins finished with 4.3 yards per attempt. Matthew Stafford is not expected to play; the team could turn to John Wolford, but whoever is under center has no one to target. Already without Cooper Kupp, the Rams are now down Allen Robinson (not that he has done much this season). Worse, Aaron Donald has a high-ankle sprain and likely will not play.
Baltimore Ravens
This year's Broncos (14.3 points per game) are in hot pursuit of the 1966 Broncos (14.0) to be the lowest-scoring team in franchise history. The Ravens should do their part to help them get there. Baltimore is coming of a tough road loss, but this has less to do with the Ravens than it does their opponent. The Broncos can't score — 24 red-zone drives are the fewest in the league, as are their nine red-zone touchdowns. The Ravens probably are not an option for most. If they are, this a great spot.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns have only four wins, but two came against the Bengals and, last week, the Buccaneers. The Texans are so bad they get blown out nearly every game. The big unknown this week is the return of Deshaun Watson. He hasn't taken a snap since 2020. Are we to assume he just picks up where he left off? Fortunately for him, he gets the Texans. Even a poor performance probably won't be taken advantage of by Houston. Plus, how will the Texans (32nd vs. the run) stop Nick Chubb? If the Cowboys and Ravens are gone, I'd take Seattle before Cleveland just because of the Watson uncertainty.
Minnesota Vikings
Jets QB Mike White got a soft landing last week in his debut against the Bears. Things might go tougher at Minnesota this week. Plus, the Jets' backfield is severely beat up.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are far from a lock in this matchup. It's not that the Saints are sneaky good or something, but the Bucs are capable of losing to anyone, including last week to the Browns. This one is in Tampa ... where the Bucs are 2-3 this year. The Saints, though, have four wins, their most impressive, perhaps, coming vs. Seattle, which is not saying a whole lot. They are at best mediocre with Andy Dalton at quarterback. With the NFC South up for grabs, the Buccaneers should do enough to get by the Saints.
Notable Omission:
Buffalo Bills
On paper, the Bills should overwhelm the Patriots. But the Bills aren't certainly not humming these days. In their last four games, they lost to the Jets and Vikings and were less than impressive in wins against the middling Browns and Lions. Josh Allen is tied with Davis Mills for the most interceptions in the league, and not just any picks — he's been intercepted in the red zone in four of his last five games. Meanwhile, the Patriots have won five of their last seven, and in last week's loss to the Vikings, Mac Jones threw for 382 yards and two scores. This one is at New England, the Patriots are in the playoff hunt and the Bills don't look like the Bills from September and October.
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