This article is part of our Survivor series.
Everything went right last week — even nailed the Lions as the Notable Omission — expect for using the Vikings as my Survivor pick. It didn't hurt too much because I was bounced from Survivor a couple weeks ago.
The worst part is failing the reader(s) (are there any left?). I know at least chitownchicken is reading because he attempted last week's trivia question (Answer: Love Me Do). Hopefully, you're all still alive (especially chitownchicken!).
In my pool, seven were eliminated — all on Minnesota. Of the original 414, 18 remain.
On to Week 13.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAGUARS | Bengals | 37.2% | 355 | 78.0% | 8.18 |
| BUCCANEERS | Panthers | 21.2% | 225 | 69.2% | 6.52 |
| STEELERS | Cardinals | 17.6% | 225 | 69.2% | 5.42 |
| Chargers | PATRIOTS | 9.2% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 2.65 |
| COWBOYS | Seahawks | 3.6% | 395 | 79.8% | 0.73 |
| Dolphins | COMMANDERS | 3.5% | 395 | 79.8% | 0.71 |
| RAMS | Browns | 3.2% | 160 | 61.5% | 1.23 |
| Chiefs | PACKERS | 1.7% | 270 | 73.0% | 0.46 |
| TEXANS | Broncos | 1.0% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.37 |
| Falcons | JETS | 0.7% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.29 |
| Colts | TITANS | 0.4% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.19 |
| Lions | SAINTS | 0.3% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.11 |
| 49ers | EAGLES | 0.1% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
A pot-odds play isn't in the works
Everything went right last week — even nailed the Lions as the Notable Omission — expect for using the Vikings as my Survivor pick. It didn't hurt too much because I was bounced from Survivor a couple weeks ago.
The worst part is failing the reader(s) (are there any left?). I know at least chitownchicken is reading because he attempted last week's trivia question (Answer: Love Me Do). Hopefully, you're all still alive (especially chitownchicken!).
In my pool, seven were eliminated — all on Minnesota. Of the original 414, 18 remain.
On to Week 13.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAGUARS | Bengals | 37.2% | 355 | 78.0% | 8.18 |
| BUCCANEERS | Panthers | 21.2% | 225 | 69.2% | 6.52 |
| STEELERS | Cardinals | 17.6% | 225 | 69.2% | 5.42 |
| Chargers | PATRIOTS | 9.2% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 2.65 |
| COWBOYS | Seahawks | 3.6% | 395 | 79.8% | 0.73 |
| Dolphins | COMMANDERS | 3.5% | 395 | 79.8% | 0.71 |
| RAMS | Browns | 3.2% | 160 | 61.5% | 1.23 |
| Chiefs | PACKERS | 1.7% | 270 | 73.0% | 0.46 |
| TEXANS | Broncos | 1.0% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.37 |
| Falcons | JETS | 0.7% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.29 |
| Colts | TITANS | 0.4% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.19 |
| Lions | SAINTS | 0.3% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.11 |
| 49ers | EAGLES | 0.1% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
A pot-odds play isn't in the works this week, but fading the Jaguars and their 37 percent of support for the Buccaneers (21 percent) isn't a bad a idea. Maybe some are avoiding Tampa Bay because they expect a dead-cat bounce from the Panthers, who just fired their head coach and couple assistants. I don't see that happening, but Vegas made the Jaguars a much heavier favorite than the Bucs for a reason, so if I were still alive, I'd go with the Jags.
This is all predicated on the idea that Miami and Dallas are not available. If those teams are still alive for you, go that route. That said, odds-wise, the Jaguars are right there with those two, according to Vegas. I already used Miami and Dallas, which is why a) I'm going Jacksonville and b) their writeups below are short.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Miami Dolphins
Washington has lost three in row, including getting demolished on Thanksgiving at Dallas. Maybe the Commanders hang around for a bit, but Miami should overwhelm them at some point.
Dallas Cowboys
Seattle's offense is sputtering, Kenneth Walker is injured and the Cowboys are rolling.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags have won seven of their last eight and seem to be hitting their stride. The Bengals without Joe Burrow are fairly impotent. Last week against Pittsburgh, half of their 10 possessions netted two yards or less (four ended in negative yardage) and only twice did they penetrate the opponent's 25-yard line (TD, INT). The Jags aren't as good as the Steelers defensively, but they're still good enough (20.5 points allowed/game, 12th) to shut down Jake Browning. Plus, Cinci's defense is mediocre at best.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is not about the Bucs, who have lost seven of their last eight. It's about the Panthers, who fired their coach this week. The Raiders fired their coach a few weeks back and got a bounce out of it — this doesn't feel like that situation at all. The Raiders seemed glad to get rid of their coach; the Panthers just seem rudderless with a struggling rookie QB, bad offensive line and no playmakers. Bucs should win at home.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Kyler Murray's return hasn't changed the fortune of the Cardinals much. They're still bad. The Steelers' defense continues to carry Pittsburgh, which hasn't allowed more than 20 points since Week 4 (to the Texans). Offensively, the Steelers topped 400 yards for the first time in forever last week but still only scored 16 points in their first game of the post-Matt Canada era. Even if the offense doesn't come around this week, Pittsburgh's defense should clip the Cardinals.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs should win, but I'd take the 6.5 points with an improving Packers team at home with 10 days to prepare.
Notable Omission:
Los Angeles Chargers
New England's offense is so bad that even the Chargers should figure out a way to come out on top. The Chargers are such a mess, though, would it really surprise anyone if they went to Foxboro and lost? Maybe. In any event, why trust a Survivor pick on a lousy Chargers team on the road in what is expected to be a cold and rainy afternoon?
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