This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week got hairy for those who took the Bills, but at least they pulled it out. The Eagles going down bounced a good chunk of Survivors.
Eagles backers got jobbed. All Philadelphia had to do on third down with two minutes to play was hand off the ball. The Jets were out of timeouts. Run it, burn clock, punt and give the Jets — whose longest drive of the game was 51 yards — about a minute to go 50-60 yards for the go-ahead field goal from long distance. If you're going to pass, obviously make it a high-percentage target, and if that's not there, tuck it and run. Tough way to lose Survivor.
Fortunately, those of us who had the Bills didn't have to rely on the team making the right decisions — the officials took care of us.
In my pool, 22 entrants were eliminated (17 on the Eagles), leaving 132 of the original 414 still surviving.
On to Week 7.
As usual — and particularly this week; see below — you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEAHAWKS | Cardinals | 57.9% | 332.5 | 76.9% | 13.39 |
| Bills | PATRIOTS |
Last week got hairy for those who took the Bills, but at least they pulled it out. The Eagles going down bounced a good chunk of Survivors.
Eagles backers got jobbed. All Philadelphia had to do on third down with two minutes to play was hand off the ball. The Jets were out of timeouts. Run it, burn clock, punt and give the Jets — whose longest drive of the game was 51 yards — about a minute to go 50-60 yards for the go-ahead field goal from long distance. If you're going to pass, obviously make it a high-percentage target, and if that's not there, tuck it and run. Tough way to lose Survivor.
Fortunately, those of us who had the Bills didn't have to rely on the team making the right decisions — the officials took care of us.
In my pool, 22 entrants were eliminated (17 on the Eagles), leaving 132 of the original 414 still surviving.
On to Week 7.
As usual — and particularly this week; see below — you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEAHAWKS | Cardinals | 57.9% | 332.5 | 76.9% | 13.39 |
| Bills | PATRIOTS | 17.5% | 355 | 78.0% | 3.85 |
| 49ers | VIKINGS | 5.1% | 270 | 73.0% | 1.38 |
| RAMS | Steelers | 4.8% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 1.94 |
| CHIEFS | Chargers | 3.3% | 220 | 68.8% | 1.03 |
| Raiders | BEARS | 3.2% | 145 | 59.2% | 1.31 |
| BUCCANEERS | Falcons | 2.4% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 1.03 |
| Browns | COLTS | 1.8% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.84 |
| Packers | BRONCOS | 1.0% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.48 |
| Commanders | GIANTS | 0.6% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.27 |
| SAINTS | Jaguars | 0.5% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.24 |
| RAVENS | Lions | 0.5% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.21 |
| EAGLES | Dolphins | 0.2% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.09 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This week brings an interesting situation. For the first time this season, we have a pot-odds play to consider. The Seahawks are the overwhelming favorite with nearly 58 percent of the picks. The Bills are next with 17.5 percent. But the Bills have better odds to win than the Seahawks (78.0 percent vs. 76.9)! So just by looking at the chart we can surmise the Bills are the better pick without doing all the math.
The 49ers are the next highest-favored team followed by the Chiefs. Just for fun, let's compare the risk and reward ratios for picking the Chiefs instead of the Seahawks.
A Seahawks win/Chiefs loss is .77 (Seahawks' Vegas Odds of winning, rounded) multiplied by .31 (Chiefs' Vegas Odds of losing, rounded), which is 23.9 percent. A Chiefs win/Seahawks loss is .69*.23 = 15.9 percent.
That means the risk ratio is 23.9/15.9 = 1.50.
For the reward ratio, we'll use a hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool. If the Seahawks win/Chiefs lose, three people are out on the Chiefs plus another nine non-Chiefs owners projected to lose, for 12 total losers. 100-12 = 88 remaining owners, $1,000/88 = $11.36.
If the Chiefs win/Seahawks lose, it's 58 out on the Seahawks, plus nine more, for 67 total. 100-67 = 33, $1,000/33 = $30.30. The ratio of $30.30/$11.36 is 2.66.
So, the risk ratio of picking the Chiefs 1.50, but the reward is 2.66 — i.e., the reward is worth the risk. According to this method, the Bills, 49ers and Chiefs are easy picks.
However, if you made it this far, chances are you already used the Bills. In my pool, 65 percent of the remaining Survivors no longer have the Bills available. And the 49ers and Chiefs are probably long gone to many Survivors too. In my pool, 40 percent have used all three teams.
That leaves us with the Rams as Vegas' highest-favored team — but it's only 60 percent to win. So, to take the Rams instead of the Seahawks, you'd be taking a team with a 40 percent chance of losing over a team with a 23 percent chance of losing. That's big, and while the upside if the Rams win is 58 percent of your pool is out, it's too much risk. If we calculate taking the Rams vs. the Seahawks, the risk and reward ratios look like this: 2.23 risk and 2.55 reward. It's still a plus reward/risk, but it's not nearly enough.
If the Bills, 49ers or Chiefs are available, definitely take one and fade the Seahawks. Outside of that, stick with the Seahawks.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Buffalo Bills
The Bills needed the officials' help to survive the Giants last week and now travel to face the Patriots. But as lackluster as the Bills looked, the Patriots are even worse. New England has scored two touchdowns in its last 14 quarters. There's no Bill Belichick/Foxboro intimidation factor either — the Bills have won the last three at New England by an average score of 32-13. Unless Buffalo's offense completely goes into the tank this week, the Bills should win.
Kansas City Chiefs
Speaking of not being intimidated, the Chargers have won three of their last five at Arrowhead. The Chargers, though, have trouble putting teams away and Justin Herbert looked awful in a Monday night loss to the Cowboys. And not only is Los Angeles on a short week, Kansas City has extra time to prepare having played last Thursday. The Chiefs have been un-Chiefs-like on offense this year — their 24.5 points per game is their fewest in the first six games since 2016, i.e., in the Patrick Mahomes era — but defensively, Kansas City is stout, second to only San Francisco with 14.7 points allowed per game. Perhaps it's a tight game, but K.C. should pull it out.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers lost at Cleveland last week with Deebo Samuel getting hurt early and Christian McCaffrey getting hurt late. Trent Williams also was injured, though he returned. And still, it took a missed field goal to lose. Samuel and McCaffrey have a chance to play this week, but even if not, the 49ers likely still won't struggle against the Vikings the way they did against Cleveland's top-notch defense. The Vikings are without Justin Jefferson, and if they had trouble with Chicago's defense last week, what will they do against the 49ers' league-leading unit?
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks blew a big opportunity last week at Cincinnati thanks to scoring just one touchdown in five red-zone trips. Surprisingly, defense has been the team's strength this year. Perhaps this week the offense will get things going against a Cardinals defense that ranks 27th in the league (27.0 points allowed per game). Arizona has a reputation for playing hard, but it's not winning games. The Seahawks should rebound at home.
Notable Omission:
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are only notable because they're one of the five most-popular teams. Vegas doesn't love them as a 3-point favorite at home. The only reason five percent of Survivors are on them is likely because none of the above teams are available. If that's the case, knock yourself out. But I like the Buccaneers, Browns and Commanders as least as much as the Rams, who have no running game and haven't put a full game of good football together once this season.
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