This article is part of our Survivor series.
For the second week in a row, favorites dominated Survivor last week. Quite a departure from the upset-crazy early part of the season.
In my pool, none was eliminated. Of the original 442, 10 remain.
On to Week 8.
(You are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.)
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | Titans | 34.8% | 512.5 | 83.7% | 5.68 |
| BRONCOS | Panthers | 20.8% | 400 | 80.0% | 4.16 |
| Ravens | BROWNS | 14.3% | 400 | 80.0% | 2.86 |
| Chiefs | RAIDERS | 6.1% | 400 | 80.0% | 1.22 |
| Jets | PATRIOTS | 5.6% | 305 | 75.3% | 1.38 |
| STEELERS | Giants | 5.6% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 1.61 |
| CHARGERS | Saints | 4.9% | 315 | 75.9% | 1.18 |
| TEXANS | Colts | 2.3% | 250 | 71.4% | 0.66 |
| Packers | JAGUARS | 2.0% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.66 |
| VIKINGS | Rams | 1.6% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.65 |
| 49ERS | Cowboys | 0.4% | 202.5 | 66.9% | 0.13 |
| DOLPHINS | Cardinals | 0.3% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.12 |
| Bills | SEAHAWKS | 0.2% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.07 |
| COMMANDERS | Bears | 0.2% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.09 |
| Falcons | BUCCANEERS | 0.2% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.09 |
| BENGALS | Eagles | 0.1% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There's no pot-odds play this week, but there are plenty of quality options. So, if you've used a top pick already, you should still find something to your liking. Although not listed below,
For the second week in a row, favorites dominated Survivor last week. Quite a departure from the upset-crazy early part of the season.
In my pool, none was eliminated. Of the original 442, 10 remain.
On to Week 8.
(You are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.)
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | Titans | 34.8% | 512.5 | 83.7% | 5.68 |
| BRONCOS | Panthers | 20.8% | 400 | 80.0% | 4.16 |
| Ravens | BROWNS | 14.3% | 400 | 80.0% | 2.86 |
| Chiefs | RAIDERS | 6.1% | 400 | 80.0% | 1.22 |
| Jets | PATRIOTS | 5.6% | 305 | 75.3% | 1.38 |
| STEELERS | Giants | 5.6% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 1.61 |
| CHARGERS | Saints | 4.9% | 315 | 75.9% | 1.18 |
| TEXANS | Colts | 2.3% | 250 | 71.4% | 0.66 |
| Packers | JAGUARS | 2.0% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.66 |
| VIKINGS | Rams | 1.6% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.65 |
| 49ERS | Cowboys | 0.4% | 202.5 | 66.9% | 0.13 |
| DOLPHINS | Cardinals | 0.3% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.12 |
| Bills | SEAHAWKS | 0.2% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.07 |
| COMMANDERS | Bears | 0.2% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.09 |
| Falcons | BUCCANEERS | 0.2% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.09 |
| BENGALS | Eagles | 0.1% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There's no pot-odds play this week, but there are plenty of quality options. So, if you've used a top pick already, you should still find something to your liking. Although not listed below, there's an argument for the Texans and Vikings too.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Detroit Lions
The Lions are riding high after a big NFC North win at the Vikings last week. A letdown is about the only thing that could derail them this week at home against a miserable Titans teams, and, safe to say, Dan Campbell won't let that happen. The Mason Rudolph-led Titans offense can't keep up with Detroit, especially after DeAndre Hopkins was traded Wednesday.
Baltimore Ravens
The Browns have little besides Nick Chubb, who's still working back from a knee injury. Perhaps Jameis Winston provides a spark in his first start this week. The Ravens are too good for that nonsense, though.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos aren't great and Bo Nix still isn't good — his completion percentage and YPA are 30th in the league and he struggles throwing even to the sicks as his completion rate on attempts of at least eight yards is a league-low 35.4 percent. Nevertheless, a home matchup against the worst team in football is a safe bet. The Panthers average 15.7 points per game (28th) and allow 34.7 (32nd) — the last team that gave up at least that much for a season was the 1966 New York Giants (35.8). The Broncos win with defense and should do so here.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders have lost three in a row and have not scored more than 20 points in their last four games. A matchup against a tough Chiefs defense does not bode well. The Chiefs should be energized after trading for Hopkins and perhaps will finally throw more than five yards downfield, assuming Hopkins plays. If the Raiders had anything offensively, it might be enough to stay away from this as a Survivor pick. But they don't.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have their issues, but the Saints have many more. Backup quarterback, injuries, bad defense. Not good. Derek Carr reportedly has a shot to return this week, but it doesn't appear likely, and even if he does, he won't be 100 percent healthy. And the Saints' defense is still bad.
Green Bay Packers
It's perhaps a little surprising that more Survivors aren't on the Packers this week. Sure, they're on the road, but the Jaguars can't stop the pass, at all, and the Packers are effective through the air. The Jags got their second win of the year last week, in London, but it was against the Patriots, which should probably count as three-quarters of a win.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Giants were without LT Andrew Thomas last week, lost for the year to a foot injury, and gave up eight sacks. That seems like a pretty food formula for T.J. Watt and the Steelers' pass rush this week.
NOTABLE OMISSION:
New York Jets
The 2-5 Jets' are desperate. That should play in their favor. As should facing a bad Patriots team that has lost six in a row. But are the Jets a good team that's struggling or just not good? The jury is still out, which makes picking them in a divisional matchup on the road too rich, even if it is against the woeful Patriots. There are plenty of better options this week.
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