Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Colts vs. Jets

Thursday night's matchup sees the Colts as considerable 10.5-point home favorites against the Jets in a game that features a middling 46-point total. The Colts are coming off a disappointing home loss against the Titans last week while Jets surprised everyone by upsetting the Bengals on the back of an incredible performance by the previously unknown Mike White. Rookie first-rounder Zach Wilson (knee) will miss his second consecutive game, meaning that White will get another chance to impress Thursday. Many will play for a Colts blowout, but keep in mind that their top three players are the most expensive on the slate and it will be difficult for all to be optimal. There are some appealing options on the Jets side and because they are cheaper, it takes less for them to be optimal. If the game stays relatively close, multiple Jets likely will be on the winning lineup. As always in these single-game contests, plan for a specific scenario and build lineups to fit that game script. 

QUARTERBACKS

Carson Wentz ($10,800 DK, $16,500 FD) made some costly mistakes in last week's loss, but that isn't really relative as it relates to his viability for Thursday. He's thrown multiple touchdown passes in five consecutive games and has generally looked much improved after struggling early in the season. The Jets defense hasn't shown that it is capable of stopping anyone, allowing 31.2 points per game over its last six. The Colts offensive line is healthy and it's one of the better units in the league, meaning Wentz should be comfortable in the pocket and have plenty of time to throw. He's the second-most expensive player on DraftKings and the most expensive on FanDuel. He's only topped 22 DK points once this season and that along with the expensive salary will have me underweight in the captain. He makes a lot of sense in the flex, though, considering the Colts are big favorites and expected to put up points. 

Mike White ($9,800 DK, $14,000 FD) shocked the world last week when he led the Jets to an improbable upset over the Bengals. Most people had scarcely heard of him when it was announced he'd be starting in place of the injured Zach Wilson. White completed 37 of 45 for 405 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions on his way to putting up 31.1 DK points. He did most of his damage with shorter passes to receivers and running backs. He'll have a tougher time with that strategy against the Colts but nonetheless he showed that he's capable of making plays at the highest level. He'll be less popular than Wentz, Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, which means he's worth taking a chance on if you think the Jets can keep the game competitive. I'll have some exposure but likely only in the flex spot as I prefer to captain position players over QBs. 

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Michael Pittman ($10,200 DK, $13,500 FD) has clearly established himself as Wentz's favorite target and has been red-hot lately, topping 20 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He drew a whopping 15 targets last week against the Titans. It's worth noting T.Y. Hilton (concussion) is out so there should be a few extra opportunities for the remaining Colts pass catchers. Zach Pascal ($6,600 DK, $8,000 FD) caught five of eight balls for 43 yards last week. He's drawn at least five targets in all but one game this season but he's more of a possession receiver so he'd likely have to find the end zone to end up optimal. I'd prefer taking a chance on Ashton Dulin ($200 DK, $5,000 FD). He's drawn four targets in consecutive games, including multiple deep shots, though he's yet to catch one. He played 35 of 80 snaps last week and likely will operate as the No. 3 WR with Hilton sidelined. His $200 salary is just too cheap for that role and makes him stand out among the cheap options Thursday. 

Jamison Crowder ($7,800 DK, $11,000 FD) is coming off his best game of the season last week when he caught eight of nine balls for 84 yards. Mike White found success with short passes and that bodes well for Crowder, who should see upward of 10 targets again Thursday. Corey Davis ($7,600 DK, $11,500 FD) has yet to practice this week after sitting out Sunday due to a hip injury. The Jets used six receivers in his absence. Denzel Mims ($2,000 DK, $6,500 FD) stepped into Davis' role and played 70 percent of the snaps while catching two of three targets for 30 yards. Keelan Cole ($2,400 DK, $7,000 FD) rounded out most of the three-receiver sets while Elijah Moore ($6,200 DK, $8,000 FD) operated as the No. 4 WR. Cole drew five targets while Moore caught all six of his for 67 yards. I prefer taking a chance on Mims or Cole based on $4,000 difference between them and Moore. Braxton Berrios ($3,800 DK, $7,000 FD) had two catches for 13 yards and an important touchdown last week, which is likely why he's more expensive than Cole and Mims. He doesn't deserve to be based on his playing time and opportunities. If Davis is ruled out, I'd have exposure to Crowder, Mims and Cole, in that order. 

Moving to TE, both Mo Alie-Cox ($5,200 DK, $7,500 FD) and Jack Doyle ($4,600 DK, $6,000 FD) could benefit from Hilton's absence. Cox has yet to catch more than three passes in a game this season. He always seems a bit too expensive on these single-game slates as he almost certainly needs a TD to be optimal for his salary. Doyle is definitely touchdown dependent. He hasn't seen more than two targets in a game since Week 2. I'd much rather roster Dulin for considerably cheaper. 

On the Jets side, Tyler Kroft ($4,000 DK, $6,500 FD) caught a touchdown last week, which is probably why he's overpriced Thursday. He's drawn more than two targets only once this season and is similarly touchdown dependent as Cox and Doyle. Ryan Griffin ($1,400 DK, $6,000 FD) seems like the better gamble considering his cheap salary.

RUNNING BACKS

Jonathan Taylor ($11,600 DK, $16,000 FD) has an incredible streak of five consecutive games with at least 20 fantasy points and has topped 30 twice in that span. His value has been helped by an increased role in the passing game, and I expect that to continue with the Colts short at WR. Taylor is in a great spot Thursday against a Jets defense that's given up the most fantasy points in the league to RBs and that allows an average of 165 yards on the ground. He will be a popular option in the captain/MVP spot. Nyheim Hines ($5,600 DK, $7,500 FD) had four catches last week but he still only scored 6.4 DK points. That was actually his highest fantasy-point total in five weeks, and he seems overpriced as a result. Marlon Mack ($800 DK, $5,000 FD) didn't touch the ball last week and has only 13 carries in the last four games. He wasn't moved after being placed on the trading block and it's unclear if he will have a role in the offense going forward. 

Michael Carter ($8,600 DK, $13,000 FD) has been a big beneficiary of Mike White's dink-and-dunk style. He's drawn 23 targets the last two weeks and caught at least eight balls in both. He also has three touchdowns in the last four weeks and looks like one of the better options Thursday from a point-per-dollar perspective. He has plenty of upside too and makes sense in the captain spot if you think the Jets stand a chance. Ty Johnson ($6,400 DK, $9,000 FD) has seen a lot of work in the passing game as well. He's caught at least five balls in consecutive weeks and has a touchdown in two of his last three. The salary seems a bit expensive, though, as he's carried the ball more than five times just once this season. It might make most sense to roster him in blowout scenarios or as a pivot off of Crowder or Carter. 

KICKERS

Kickers are always viable options, and that's especially true for Thursday. Look at the players priced above and below Michael Badgley ($4,400 DK, $9,500 FD) and Matt Ammendola ($4,200 DK, $8,500 FD). Hines, Alie-Cox, Colts D/ST and Doyle are priced above while Kroft, Berrios and Jets D/ST are priced just below. It's not hard to imagine that none of those player score double-digit fantasy points and it's very easy for a kicker to do so. I'd prefer Badgley with the Colts being 10.5-point favorites. 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

I don't have much interest in either defense. The Colts ($5,000) are in a decent spot at home and facing a backup QB but they likely will be too popular for their inflated salary. Paying 5K for a defense rarely works out. The Jets ($3,000) have one of the worst defenses in the league and are likely to give up a lot of points Thursday. If anything they're viable because people won't want to roster them and a special teams TD is always possible. I'll be underweight on both.