This article is part of our Run 'N' Shoot series.
We spend so much time studying and preparing for each NFL Sunday, yet when the games arrive, the fantasy outcomes often feel like a roll of the dice. AJ Green? Injured toe. Robert Griffin III? Dislocated ankle. Knowshon Moreno? Out for a month. Desean Jackson? Bum shoulder. Ryan Mathews? See you in October. Mark Ingram? You're playing the best ball of your career, now go sit out with a broken hand. As if these injuries weren't bad enough, many of them took place in the first quarter, giving fantasy owners a bagel in the starting lineup.
With so much uncertainty in today's NFL, I thought I'd list out a handful of things I'm confident about. After all, we all need things we can count on in our fake lives. Sadly, there aren't many:
- The Bengals defense is legit. Leon Hall and Geno Atkins are back after season-ending injuries in 2013, and Cincy has already shut down Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. When Seattle is on the road, this is the NFL's best defense.
- OK, Panthers, I hear you. You're right there, too. The regression police clamored for you to miss this year's playoffs, but with the Bucs getting killed by injuries, the Falcons with no defense, and the Saints already two games back and unable to win on the road, Carolina looks like a strong bet to repeat as NFC South champs.
- DeMarco Murray, LeVeon Bell, and Giovani Bernard would be sure-fire first-round fantasy picks in a redraft done today. Bell has a second gear I didn't see last year, as he looks quicker and more agile than ever before. It doesn't hurt that a bad Steelers defense (they're the only NFL team not to have an INT or a forced fumble) will force Pittsburgh to keep the pedal to the floor on offense all year. Murray might be the top overall fantasy pick if we knew he'd play 16 games, and the Cowboys might have the best run-blocking offensive line in the NFL. Bernard has 41 carries and 11 receptions already and looks like a bellcow on an offense that will be forced to be more ball-control with A.J. Green hobbled.
- Most teams play better at home, but the home/road splits for the Saints and Seahawks are so pronounced even Vegas can't seem to adjust. If you bet against the spread, keep betting these teams at home and fading them on the road until further notice.
- Jets run defense is fantastic (2.8 YPC, NFL-best 52.5 yards/game). Avoid, avoid, avoid (in real life and fantasy).
- Raiders run defense is terrible (5.0 YPC, 400 yards allowed in two games). And since the whole Raiders team is terrible, opposing teams will be running (with the lead) all year long. Exploit, exploit, exploit.
- Knile Davis is a sure-fire fantasy RB-1 for so long as Jamaal Charles is out, which may be a long time given what we know about high ankle sprains. Buy, buy, buy (at least 30% of your FAAB, more like 50% if need a RB). I'd have journeyman Donald Brown a much lower waiver priority.
- Geno Smith and E.J. Manuel, the top two quarterbacks taken in the 2013 draft, are playing notably better than they did in 2013, giving two long-downtrodden AFC East teams reason for optimism. How bad has it been for the Bills in recent years? When I told my kids (ages 11, 9, and 8) that they were undefeated and in first place, they didn't believe me and insisted I show them/prove it. Can you blame them? The Bills haven't made the playoffs at any point that they've resided on planet Earth.
Now some other, random thoughts about our favorite sport ...
- What in the name of Darren Sproles is going on in Philadelphia? After essentially getting released by the Saints (traded for a fifth round pick) and now age 31, I thought for sure Sproles was done. That's what my eyes told me last year, and that's obviously what Sean Payton thought. Yet now Sproles looks better than ever. That said, with Sproles the talk of the fantasy world after a prime time performance (isn't everyone writing about him in columns like this today?), I'd quietly see what I could get for him in a trade, as his value may never be higher. Arian Foster? Sign me up. Montee Ball or Eddie Lacy (is that even possible)? I couldn't sign off fast enough. Bear in mind, Lacy just finished the two worst matchups he'll have all year.
- Suggesting you trade Sproles for Ball or lacy might seem obvious, but once a week or so, I make it a habit to talk to some work colleagues who play fantasy football to see what the "average Joe" is thinking. This week's tidbit? Kirk Cousins must not like Pierre Garcon, so he's thinking of getting rid of Garcon. Really? After one game? Heck, less than one. Garcon was fine with Cousins last year, and he'll be fine again this year. But many fantasy owners panic at small sample sizes, especially if they're 0-2, so you never know who might sign off on giving up Ball or Lacy for Sproles. Sometimes it's better to package this as a two-for-two, though - it's less likely to come across as "I'm smarter than you, so I'm taking the better running back from you in this one-for-one trade."
- We seem to say this every year, but fantasy tight ends are growing on trees. Niles Paul and Larry Donnell were getting all the talk on my Twitter feed, but Delanie Walker went 10-142-1 on 14 targets (and nobody else on the Titans had more than 6 targets). I've said this so many times, but please, folks - start two tight ends in your fantasy leagues.
- Antonio Gates is the David Ortiz of the NFL. Every time you think his career is done, he reminds you he's a Hall of Famer. Speaking of, I now have Philip Rivers ahead of Eli Manning on the Hall of Fame list, those two Super Bowls for the latter notwithstanding.
- All of the injuries we saw this week show how hard it will be for anyone to hold Josh Gordon until Week 11. In leagues with shallow benches, you need to cut him. The last thing you want to do is hold him for 3-4 games then have to cut him during the byes.
- I hate when broadcasters say a team is "forced to punt." Maybe punting is the best option, maybe not - but it's always a choice; it's never "forced." If I could change one thing about broadcasting in today's NFL, it might be to force them to discuss the pros and cons of going for it on fourth down.
- If Rex Ryan were coaching the Jets in a playoff game, down by four points with :01 seconds left in the fourth quarter and the Jets had the ball on the opponent's three yard line, I somehow think Rex's headset would *still* be tuned in to the defensive channel ... and he'd still find a way to blame someone else for the ensuing offensive snafu.
- We'd all agree the Bengals are the best team in the AFC North, but who's second-best? Not the Steelers, who can't play defense and have 9 points the last 6 quarters. Not the Ravens, who don't have an above-average player on their entire offense. Isn't it the Browns? Why can't Cleveland contend for a Wild Card this year?
- What? Torrey Smith, you say? Everywhere I read, my colleagues are suggesting we buy low on Torrey. I own him in half my leagues, so I'd like to think they're right, but I'm concerned at the extent to which he disappears from the offense when opposing defenses take away the deep ball. Give me Sammy Watkins instead. (Is that even possible any more? Watkins look great on Sunday, and I *loved* how the Bills used him - short, deep, intermediate.)
- The Bears defense collapsed down the stretch last year under an avalanche of injuries. Is it de ja vu in 2014? Charles Tillman just tore his triceps and will miss the season. Given the weapons on the Bears offense, there's massive potential for a fantasy carnival here. Keep an eye on that Bears defense.
- It's time to start taking Andrew Hawkins seriously, particularly in PPR leagues. Touchdowns might be hard to come by for this 5'7" receiver, but 14-157 on 22 targets over two games shouldn't be sitting on waivers in most PPR formats. Consider Hawkins a lite version of Kendall Wright.
- A lot has to happen for this to pan out, and it probably won't (did I hedge that enough?), but Davante Adams could be this year's Keenan Allen. The draft pedigree is there, and having Aaron Rodgers as the quarterback sure helps. When I said that on Twitter, @MarkStopa, a couple of people asked me if that was possible as the Packers third receiver. Probably not, but you tell me - if Jordy Nelson and/or Randall Cobb got hurt, what's Adams' ceiling? 1,100 yards and 8-10 TDs, right? If you disagree, watch the tape from Sunday's game - Adams flashed in a way I haven't seen Jarrett Boykin, and I'd be surprised to see Boykin get that job back. If you have someone like Rueben Randle sitting on the bench, swap him out for Adams and see what happens.
- If your life depended on getting it right, who would you pick to win the AFC South? The Colts have Andrew Luck but little else and they're 0-2. The Texans are 2-0 and boast a terrific defense, but they just drafted first overall for a reason, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is their quarterback. The Titans are, at least in theory, in the conversation, too. Go ahead. Pick.
- I haven't seen anyone put Jordy Nelson as their second-ranked fantasy receiver, but why can't he be? With that Packers defense and Aaron Rodgers, 16 games from Nelson is going to look ridiculous at the end of the year.
- It's an interesting week in Survivor, as the Patriots are an obvious choice at home over the Raiders, but then again, everyone in your pool will think that. Let's see what Chris Liss cooks up for us on the pot odds this week.
