NFL Picks and Props for Week 14
The 2025 National Football League resumes Sunday for Week 14 action, and it's the final week with byes. Four teams are off this week, including the Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers.
In recent weeks, weather has been a factor, steering us to some Under plays. But for the first full weekend of December action in the NFL, the weather is looking pretty good, for the most part, at most venues this week. There are some trouble spots, though. Let's get started!
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Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
The Tennessee Titans and the Cleveland Browns renew acquaintances on the shores of Lake Erie.
For old-school fans, this used to be an AFC Central Division matchup, when the Titans were the Houston Oilers. I caught one of those games in the Dawg Pound at the old Municipal Stadium in freezing rain, attending with my grandfather and uncle, and the behavior of the fans is as wild as you would imagine.
For this matchup, it's sad. The Titans have just one victory, and the Browns have three. These teams are in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, not close to competition for the playoffs. In fact, the Titans are already eliminated, and the Browns are only mathematically alive, but at 3-9, let's face it, they're done, too.
This game still has plenty of intrigue, though, especially for props. Plus, we should have a snow game, as the weather has routinely been brutal for most home games since October for the Browns. From rains, winds and a seiche on Lake Erie, to snow, we've had it all in Cleveland so far this season.
The weather forecast calls for snows showers, albeit light ones, from 8 a.m. ET through the end of the game. The Muni Lot will be packed with snowballs, deep-fried turkeys and shots of whiskey, and, honestly, that action will be a lot more fun than the action on the actual field.
Titans RB Tony Pollard showed some signs of life last week at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, averaging 6.0 yards per carry (YPC), but he had 2.2 or fewer YPC in the previous two games, totaling 42 rushing yards on 21 carries against the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks.
Pollard is facing a Browns rushing defense that is tied for an NFL-best 3.7 YPC allowed. In fact Cleveland has yielded just 1,216 rushing yards through 12 games, which is just 101.3 yards per game. In the snow, footing could be an issue, too, but the Browns defense is the larger obstacle.
As far the Browns, on offense. Again, it will be snowing, and the winds will pick up as the game goes along. But, in the first half, the conditions will only be 9-11 MPH, and QB Shedeur Sanders did a decent job in ugly conditions last time out against the San Francisco 49ers.
The Titans allow 7.9 yards per pass attempt, tied for the second-most allowed in the NFL, with only the Washington Commanders (8.7 YPA) worse. We're going to take the Over on Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr., as he will be the safety valve and security blanket for Sanders on a cold and blustery day.
Even with less than ideal conditions, the Browns will want to keep the short and intermediate passing routes in the gameplan.. In fact, poor footing with snow could lead to more open spaces for the Browns receivers, as Tennessee has a hard enough time covering people under optimal conditions.
For the Browns rushing attack, rookie Quinshon Judkins has been productive, but he could struggle againts the Titans. It's not that Tennessee is great defensively, but the Browns are down two starting linemen, as Jack Conklin and Wyatt Teller are out. The offensive line could struggle to blast open holes for the rookie tailback, leading to a challenging afternoon.
In addition, Titans DT Jeffery Simmons is a strong play at plus-money to record a sack. With Conklin and Teller out, that leaves the less talented Teven Jenkins and KT Leveston to start, Simmons should be able to get free for at least one sack. He leads the team with 6.5 sacks in 2025.
Best Prop Pick: Titans RB Tony Pollard Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Titans DT Jeffery Simmons To Record A Sack (+106 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr. Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Browns RB Quinshon Judkins Under 80.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
The Washington Commanders get QB Jayden Daniels (elbow) back from injury. His left elbow on his non-throwing arm bent back the wrong way in a Sunday Night Football game against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 9 on Nov. 2. It looked like a season-ending injury, but this kid is tough as nails, and he is back.
While it's great to see Daniels again, I don't think he is going to be running as much. It would be foolish for the second-year quarterback to take off and test things, taking hits like he did to end up on the shelf for a month.
Baltimore's Lamar Jackson returned from a lengthy injury, albeit one to his hamstring, and has been tentative to take off, even though his legs are a huge part of his game. Daniels didn't hurt his legs, but he still was injured on a rushing play, and he could be leery of running, and/or the coaching staff could be hesitant in having him run. Going low on his rushing total is the way to go.
For Minnesota, QB J.J. McCarthy is back under center after the Max Brosmer fill-in game last week was a disaster. McCarthy will face a Washington team which gives up more yards per passing attempt than anybody. As such, going high on his passing total, especially at home in controlled environmental conditions, is the way to go.
On the receiving end, WR Justin Jefferson connected with Brosmer for just two receptions and four yards. He is going to want to take advantage of the dismal Washington pass defense. Look for Jefferson to be involved early, and often.
Best Prop Pick: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels Under 35.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy Over 183.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Over 5.5 Total Receptions (+122 FanDuel)
Best Prop Plays - Week 14
Best Prop Pick: Titans RB Tony Pollard Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Titans DT Jeffery Simmons To Record A Sack (+106 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr. Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Browns RB Quinshon Judkins Under 80.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels Under 35.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy Over 183.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Over 5.5 Total Receptions (+122 FanDuel)
Best Prop Parlays - Week 14
Four-Player Titans at Browns Props Parlay (+240 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Best Prop Pick: Titans RB Tony Pollard Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
- Best Prop Pick: Titans DT Jeffery Simmons To Record A Sack (+106 FanDuel)
- Best Prop Pick: Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr. Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
- Best Prop Pick: Browns RB Quinshon Judkins Under 80.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Three-Player Commanders at Vikings Props Parlay (+345 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Best Prop Pick: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels Under 35.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
- Best Prop Pick: Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy Over 183.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
- Best Prop Pick: Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
- Best Prop Pick: Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Over 5.5 Total Receptions (+122 FanDuel)
