BMW Championship Recap: Leishman Victorious

When a golfer kicks away a tournament, as Marc Leishman did two weeks ago at the Dell Technologies Championship, he can respond in one of two ways: carry the disappointment to drag him down in future tournaments or use it a motivator. That second option is not easy to do. That first option happens much more often.

Last week at the BMW Championship, Leishman chose Door No. 2.

After a brutal back-nine 40 at TPC Boston cleared the way for Justin Thomas to win the second playoff event, Leishman opened with a 62 at Conway Farms and was never headed, continuing with 64-68-67 to win by five strokes over Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler.

Leishman is now one of the top five golfers in the FedEx Cup playoff standings, and those five control their own fate heading into this week's season-ending Tour Championship: If they win the tournament, they'd win the FedEx Cup and the $10 million bonus that goes with it. Leishman sits fourth, behind Jordan Spieth, Thomas and Dustin Johnson, and ahead of Jon Rahm.

We also saw the playoff field trimmed from 70 to the 30 who will compete at East Lake. There are some surprising names who advanced, but bigger names failed to move on. More on them in a moment.

But first, Leishman. We have seen golfers come out of nowhere before in the playoffs, such as Billy Horschel three years ago. Leishman wasn't starting from an oblivion as deep as Horschel's, but he also had never done anything like this before. He has now played a remarkable seven and a half rounds of golf over his past two tournaments, the 222nd and 223rd of his career. The only blemish was that Sunday meltdown at TPC Boston.

"I was really, really determined to not let that happen again," Leishman said on NBC right after the tournament ended.

Easier said than done. We don't have to look back any further than a month ago at the PGA Championship for evidence. Kevin Kisner was gold for the most of the way before coughing up what would've been his first major title. Since that agony at Quail Hollow, Kisner hasn't so much as finished in the top-40 – T42, T54, T53, T67 – the end of his season in ruins.

Similarly, Hideki Matsuyama, who also was atop the leaderboard at the PGA on Sunday, has done nothing since his major disappointment, going MC-T23-T47 in his next three starts till now.

Spieth blew a big lead to Johnson at the playoff opener. He hasn't won either of the next two events, but he's been runner-up and then T7 at the BMW. Spieth is perhaps the most mentally tough player on Tour. No one is putting Leishman in that class – after all, this was only this third career win – but his tenacity all week at Conway Farms was impressive.

The question now is, can he keep it going for a third straight tournament? Win again? Win the FedEx Cup? The easy answer is, no. The reason it's hard to play at an elite, tournament-winning level for a second or even a third straight week is because it's immensely hard to do it even once. But Horschel did three years ago, going MC-T2-1-1 in the playoffs.

Leishman is better than Horschel, and he's playing so effortlessly now, excelling in every area: booming the ball down the middle of the fairway (first in strokes gained tee to green at the BMW), displaying a deft short game for such a big man (second in strokes gained around the green) and topping it off with accurate putting (fourth in strokes gained putting).

It's hard to envision another win, but we can see a high finish for Leishman.

MONDAY BACKSPIN

Rickie Fowler

Playing in the final pairing with Leishman, Fowler never put the heat on. He's had a very good year with a win, two seconds, two thirds and 10 top-10s. But week after week, something is lacking. Not only does Fowler not have a major, he doesn't have all that many wins – four for his 195-event career. Of course he's in the Tour Championship, so we have to give him that, but top-30 is far from elite. And he doesn't have a good history at East Lake.

Jason Day

As bad a year as Day has had, dropping from first in the world to ninth (he's now up to sixth), he began the week inside the top-30. A lot of golfers amid off-years, such as Rory McIlroy, couldn't even claim that. Day tied for fourth at the BMW, his third top-10 in his past four starts. He has a good, but not great, track record in Atlanta, but it's apparent his game is getting closer.

Phil Mickelson

Mickelson missed the Tour Championship by one shot on Sunday, tying for 20th. This will be the third time in four years he has failed to qualify for the season-ending tournament, and we all know he's now gone four-plus years without a win. Mickelson continues to play at a high level, especially for a 47-year-old, but that level continues to lower just a bit every year. It's certainly possible for Mickelson to win a tournament next year, but more likely, his fantasy value will continue to dip.

Patrick Cantlay

Cantlay's remarkable rookie season continues. He made the biggest jump (starting 41st) among the four golfers who climbed into the top-30 on Sunday, along with Tony Finau, Sergio Garcia and Xander Schauffele. Cantlay became only the third golfer to reach East Lake in as few as 12 events, joining McIlroy (2015) and Steve Stricker (2013). With top-15s in all three playoff events so far, it would hardly surprise if Cantlay does well this week. But don't expect him to contend for the title.

Tony Finau

Finau moved from 39th to 24th with a 7-under 64 on Sunday. He was a remarkable third in strokes gained putting on the week. It's been the one thing holding him back from even more success. He's nowhere near a top-10 or even top-20 OWGR golfer, but Finau's fantasy value will only go up next season.

Sergio Garcia

Garcia's season went a bit sideways after winning the Masters, but it's tough to stay focused after such a monumental win – plus getting married over the summer. It just seems right that Garcia is at East Lake, where he has four top-10s through the years.

Xander Schauffele

Since winning the Greenbrier in July, the rookie has continued to play at a high level, tying for 20th at the BMW. It's remarkable he's in the final 30 after such a disastrous first-half of the season. For that reason, we don't see his ceiling as very high for next season – very often, rookie standouts regress in their second season.

Henrik Stenson

The No. 9 golfer in the world rallied late in the season to climb into the top-30, only to slip last week with a T51 that cost him a spot in the Tour Championship (along with Louis Oosthuizen, Bill Haas and Brendan Steele). That's now three times in the past four years he's missed out, after winning in Atlanta (and the FedEx Cup) in 2013. Stenson's game isn't what it once was, but his real detriment in season-long fantasy play is the small number of tournaments he enters.

Brendan Steele

This had to be agonizing for Steele, trying for years to get to the Tour Championship but falling just short – again – despite this being by far the best year of his career. Steele is now 34, and you have to wonder if this was his peak, as he gets older and more and more young stars emerge. This may have been his best shot.

RotoWire Value Picks

Last week: Runner-up (Spieth), three top-10s, seven top-25s, two missed cuts
This week: Both runners-up (Fowler, Rose), four top-10s, five top-25s

We chose the usual 16 golfers, but this was a 70-man field with no cut. So, not a great week. Tier 1 was decent, with Fowler's runner-up and Spieth's tie for seventh, but Thomas and Matsuyama finished far back at T47. In Tier 2, Rose delivered from the bottom of the group, and Cantlay also came through. But Paul Casey's strong run of playoff finishes ended with a T33, and Stenson really disappointed with his T51. Tier 3 was a washout, with Charl Schwartzel's T27 the best of the bunch, and Patrick Reed, Kevin Na and Kyle Stanley far back. Among the long shots, Schauffele led the way with a tie for 20th. Gary Woodland was T27, Rafa Cabrera Bello was T33 and Robert Streb was T53.