DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: WM Phoenix Open Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

WM PHOENIX OPEN

Purse: $9.2M
Winner's Share: $1.656M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Scottsdale, Ariz.
Course: TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
Yardage: 7,261
Par: 71
2024 champion: Nick Taylor

Tournament Preview

This is what we wrote here last year:

If there ever were a year the WM Phoenix Open would take a big hit -- with signature events the week before and the week after -- this would've been it. But no. The most rip-roaring, rollicking week in golf is schedule-proof, signature-proof, Super Bowl-proof and, apparently, everything-proof.

That was then, this is now.

Apparently, even mighty Phoenix is not fully schedule-proof. Like so many other "regular" or "second-tier" tournaments before it, the WMPO has finally seen its field take a hit this year, coming a week after the $20 million Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a week before the $20 million Genesis Invitational. The WMPO's purse is less than half of those behemoths.

Yes, there are three true marquee names in Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth. But the tournament long known as The Greatest Show on Grass totals only three top-10 players and 11 top-25s among its 132 entrants.

Scheffler, who was going for a WMPO 3-peat a year ago on Super Bowl Sunday, much like the Kansas City Chiefs will be this Sunday, is such a prohibitive favorite this year he's gone off at less than 3-1 -- +280 at the DraftKings Sportsbook). Scheffler wound up tied for third last year after Nick Taylor came out of nowhere to capture the title.

This year, the No. 29-ranked Taylor is back to defend, alongside Hideki Matsuyama, Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, Sam Burns, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa and Luke Clanton. Decent names all, but not the star power we've seen here in recent years. (By the way, does Clanton, the Florida State junior, ever go to class anymore?)

One thing the WMPO does have going for it is that many years it does not rely on top players like other Tour events, instead riding the sheer madness of the event for excitement.

The epicenter of TPC Scottsdale is of course the raucous-beyond-words 163-yard 16th hole with some 15,000 fans ringing the amphitheater-like setting while fully lathered from dawn to dusk. In all, hundreds of thousands of fans will converge on the Stadium Course across the weeklong event, and some say that makes it the world's largest sporting event outside of the Olympics and World Cup.

The WMPO began as the Arizona Open back in 1932, thus making it the fifth-oldest event on Tour. As you'll recall, three-time major champion Ralph Guldahl won that inaugural tournament, kick-starting a Hall of Fame list of champions: Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, Bobby Locke, Jimmy Demaret, Billy Casper, Ken Venturi, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Johnny Miller and Phil Mickelson, among others. For one year, 1950, the tournament was even known as the Ben Hogan Open (it was won by Demaret).

The tournament has been at it present location at the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale for 38 years now. The Tom Weiskopf-design is such a fun track. The aforementioned par-3 16th is part of a five-hole finish that lends itself to big swings atop the leaderboard. The 490-yard 14th is annually among the hardest holes on the course, the 15th is a 553-yard reachable par-5, the 17th is a 332-yard risk/reward drivable/water-filled par-4 and No. 18 is a 442-yarder with more water and the famed church pew bunkers.

When you add in the 472-yard 11th as the third-hardest hole on the course last year, it's easy to understand why there were 41 double bogeys or worse on the back nine alone. Nine of them came just on No. 11. The back-nine always plays harder than the front.

But the 16th is where it all happens. There were no holes-in-one last year, as there have been in some prior years. But those weren't even the most memorable moment. That honor was reserved for Harry Higgs and Joel Dahmen. Who can forget that in 2022 they stripped off their shirts and ran around the green waving them, somehow raising the decibel level that already was at Defcon 1. (Deafcon?)

TPC Scottsdale plays shorter than the official distance of 7,261, thanks to some 1,500 feet of altitude in the Phoenix area, and has only three par-5s, none of which reaches 560 yards. It's really is a ball-strikers' track, and some pretty bad putters have won there through the years (though Scheffler wasn't one of them in his two victories and Taylor led the field in Strokes Gained: Putting in his playoff win over Waste Management pitchman Charley Hoffman). The poa/bentgrass/ryegrass overseed greens are firm and large, a little more than 7,000 square feet. There are only 67 bunkers across all 18 holes, six of which feature water.

As for the weather, Phoenix is coming off the second-longest dry streak in recorded history, according to the official Golf Course Superintendents Association of America (GCSAA) fact sheet. The city had 159 days without rain from Aug. 24 to Jan. 29, when a whopping 1/10th of an inch fell from the sky. This week, get ready for a track meet. High temperatures will be in the 70s all week, with zero chance of rain and light wind.

The course will play fast and firm, meaning last year's 21-under winning score will surely be within reach.

DFS lineup construction: The winner is usually a big-name guy, last year notwithstanding, so if you can add two or even three of them to your lineup, that would be a prudent play. With a field of only 132, and 65 and ties making the cut, more than half the field should reach the weekend. That includes quite a few golfers in the $6000s, which lends itself to taking some risks on lower-priced guys -- and conversely being able to stack multiple high-priced guys.

WMPO Factoid I: It was at this tournament seven years ago that Johnny Miller signed off for the last time. He left after the third round, so as not to overshadow the end of the tournament, and was replaced by Paul Azinger, who himself is now gone from NBC, though not of his own volition.

WMPO Factoid II: One of the greatest weeks by a golfer in PGA Tour history took place here in 2001. In the strongest Phoenix field ever before the 2023 signature event, Mark Calcavecchia's won by *eight* shots. Third place was 12 shots back and Calc bested Tiger Woods by a whopping 15 strokes. He shot a course-record-tying 60 in the second round and set a then-PGA Tour record with 28 birdies across 72 holes. 

Key Stats to Winning at TPC Scottsdale

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Ball Striking/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• SG: Putting, especially inside 10 feet
• Par 5 scoring, 500-550 yards -- all three are short, just over 550

Past Champions

2024 - Nick Taylor
2023 - Scottie Scheffler
2022 - Scottie Scheffler
2021 - Brooks Koepka
2020 - Webb Simpson
2019 - Rickie Fowler
2018 - Gary Woodland
2017 - Hideki Matsuyama
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama
2015 - Brooks Koepka

Champion's Profile

Last year, the top four golfers on the leaderboard -- Taylor and playoff loser Charley Hoffman, plus Scheffler and Sam Burns, who shared third place -- all wound up in the top-five in greens in regulation and top-six in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Taylor and Hoffman also wound up 1-2 in SG: Putting, but many years you can get away with so-so work on the greens. (Burns ranked ninth and Scheffler 45th.) Just look at some of the previous winners: Woodland, Matsuyama twice and even Kevin Stadler in 2014.

The winning score had been remarkably consistent through the years, between 16- and 19-under in the seven editions before Taylor and Hoffman reached 21-under (leading everyone else in putting surely fueled that). It was the sixth playoff here in the past eight years.

Normally the path to victory here is: exceptional iron play with just enough putting to get over the hump. Oh, and by destroying the three short par-5s.

The over/under on the winning score per golfodds.com was set at 264.5, which is 19.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Scottie Scheffler - $12,000 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +280)
Scheffler returned last week after hand surgery. He tied for ninth, which constitutes a bad week for him. But he did lead the field in SG: Approach and ranked top-25 in SG: Putting, suggesting he might be very close to getting back to his old self. Yes, his price is high, but for a golfer with these odds on the betting market, his DFS price is actually a slight bargain.

Hideki Matsuyama - $10,200 (+1600)
Matsuyama was a two-time winner here in 2016-17, and runner-up the year before. He hasn't come close since, but he still had some good finishes here even during the years he was slowed by neck/back injuries. Matsuyama finished T22 in a stronger field a year ago. It's still early in the season, but his putting has not been as bad as it usually is.

Sam Burns - $10,000 (+2200)
Not only has Burns played great here in years past, he's had a few good weeks to start 2025 and is always a prime candidate to get super hot on the greens. After missing the cut in three of his first four trips to Arizona, Burns tied for sixth in 2023 and for third a year ago. He's ranked 21st on Tour in SG: Putting in the early going in 2025.

$9,000-$9,900

Sungjae Im $9,800 (+2200)
This will already be Im's fifth start of 2025. He has two top-5s, as he's continued his strong play that began in mid-2024. He was terrible at the beginning of 2024, which explains his T66 at the WMPO. But Im has two other top-10s there through the years, including T6 in 2023.

$8,000-$8,900

Nick Taylor - $8,400 (+6000)
We wrote earlier that Taylor came out of nowhere to win last year's WMPO. He did, based on his recent form, though he was runner-up to Scheffler the year before. So he obviously likes the place and putts great there. And he arrives this year in terrific form, having won the Sony and tying for 12th at the Amex.

Si Woo Kim - $8,000 (+5500)
After a dreadful start to 2025, Kim tied for 12th at Pebble Beach. He may not have the putting acumen for a very high finish this week, but at just a tick over the $7,000s, he doesn't need to to pay off. Besides, he's putting better than usual, ranked in the top-100 in the early going. Kim just missed a top-10 here last year, was top-25 the year before and just missed another top-25 in 2022.

$7,000-$7,900

Harry Hall - $7,700 (+9000)
The UNLV alum is well acquainted with desert golf. He opened 2025 with two top-10s and added a top-25 at the Amex, another desert locale. Hall is among the best on Tour from 100 yards and in, ranked 37th in SG: Around-the-Green and 19th in SG: Putting.

Sam Stevens - $7,600 (+7000)
Stevens has a chance to be a real surprise on Tour this season. He already has the pedigree as a former Oklahoma State Cowboy. Now 28, Stevens was runner-up at the Farmers and followed it up with a T17 at Pebble Beach. He has vastly improved his approach play, from 143rd on Tour last year to 28th now. He tied for 28th on his WMPO debut a year ago.

Andrew Novak - $7,500 (+7500)
Novak continues to travel on the outskirts of the top players, seemingly ready to take the next step but not just yet. He already likes TPC Scottsdale, having tied for eighth in his first visit last year. After missing two cuts to start 2025, Novak was third at the Farmers at T13 at Pebble. He is ranked in the top-80 in every strokes-gained category, which indicates strong all-around play.

Charley Hoffman - $7,200 (+11000)
Hoffman got it to 21-under here a year ago before losing to Taylor in a playoff. The long-ago UNLV star is now 48, but he can still bring it from time to time. He tied for fifth at the Amex and for 25th at the Farmers and hasn't missed a cut in three starts in 2025.

Lee Hodges - $7,200 (+10000)
Hodges has missed the cut in his first two tries at the WMPO. But this year may be different. He already has two top-10s in 2025 without missing a cut. He's been very accurate off the tee, better than average on approach and top-10 on Tour in SG: Putting.

Gary Woodland - $7,100 (+9000)
Woodland is looking a lot like his old self as one of the better drivers on Tour. At age 40 and a year removed from brain surgery, he is ranked third on Tour in driving distance and 47th accuracy for an over ranking of fifth in Total Driving. It's landed him top-25s in both his 2025 starts. Woodland is a former WMPO winner back in 2018.

$6,000-$6,900

Alex Smalley - $6,900 (+15000)
It's still early in the season, with a small sample size, but we were as surprised as anyone to see that Smalley is ranked second on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green. He's also top-10 in SG: Around-the-Green and a decent putter. Smalley opened the year with top-20s at the Sony and Amex.

Adam Schenk - $6,600 (+25000)
Fun fact: Schenk still has his card for reaching the TOUR Championship in 2023(!). Last year was not great for a player who looked like he was ready to take the next step. But Schenk already has a top-10 and a top-25 this season and is ranked eighth on Tour in SG: Putting. He finished top-25 the past two years in Phoenix, too.

Joel Dahmen - $6,400 (+25000)
What's something good we can say about Dahmen? Well, he's pretty cheap. The Phoenix fans really love him. Everybody loves after seeing him on "Full Swing" on Netflix. He already has a top-10 this season -- along with two missed cuts. Somehow, with even those two MCs, Dahmen is ranked 22nd on Tour in SG: Putting. He's made the WMPO cut the past three years. There, those are all good things.

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