This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE HONDA CLASSIC
Purse: $7M
Winner's Share: $1.26M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.
Course: PGA National (Champion)
Yardage: 7,125
Par: 70
2020 champion: Sungjae Im
Tournament Preview
In an era when ballparks change naming sponsors every few years and college bowl games get new names seemingly every 20 minutes, the relationship between Honda and the PGA Tour is nothing short of remarkable. The carmaker is the longest-standing title sponsor on Tour, dating back almost four decades to 1982. Which makes the recent treatment of the Honda Classic all the more curious. Two years ago, the tournament featured just three players in the top-10 in the world rankings. Last year, it was down to one. Now this year, zippo. The Honda Classic continues to get hammered by the condensed PGA Tour schedule that was implemented, not so coincidentally, three years ago.
The Tour massaged the schedule a little bit since last year, moving the Honda from the leadoff spot in the Florida Swing to the finale. It obviously made no difference field-wise. But in one stroke of good luck for tournament organizers, the Honda seemingly has "escaped" the pandemic better than any other tournament on the schedule. Last year, it ended on March 1 and everything went off without a hitch in leading to Sungjae Im's maiden win. Even though this year won't feature full capacity, many key elements of the tournament -- some fans, the pro-am, etc. -- will go on. Only without, you know, lots of good golfers.
Truth be told, there are two very big names on hand: Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler. They're not exactly at the top of their games, but make no mistake, they are the biggest draws. Fowler, the 2017 champion, is fighting desperately to qualify for the Masters, and this might be his last, best chance to play Augusta for the 11th straight year. He enters ranked 81st in the world and needs to be inside the top-50 after next week. But next week is the WGC-Match Play, for which Fowler also hasn't qualified as yet.
Otherwise, the leading players based on the world rankings are No. 15 Daniel Berger (injury news on Berger below), No. 18 Im, No. 19 Lee Westwood and No. 25 and 2016 champ Adam Scott -- that is it for the top-25. No. 29 Joaquin Niemann and No. 40 Shane Lowry bring the grand total of top-50 players to a mere six. No. 12 Brooks Koepka was an early commit, but he will miss a second straight event with a knee injury. Koepka fans will have to settle for young brother Chase, in on a sponsor invite.
Now on to the course. PGA National is no splendor in the grass. It's annually one of the toughest tracks the golfers will play, and the past three years it was among the five hardest all season. In 11 of the 14 years since the tournament moved there, the winning score has been single digits under par. Last year, Im's 6-under edged Mackenzie Hughes by a single strokes.
Why is the Tom and George Fazio 1981 design so hard, especially when it's just a wedge shot over 7,000 yards? Let us count the ways: water, water everywhere (on 15 holes), wind normally exceeding 15 mph, narrow fairways, only two par-5s and strategically placed bunkers, though there are only 67 total on the course. We see a lot of birdie-fests on Tour; this week is all about bogey avoidance. Actually, it's about double- or triple-bogey avoidance. There were 242 double bogeys or worse last year, most on Tour. Im had 13 bogeys last year, but zero doubles. Hughes had 10 bogeys, but also two doubles -- and there's your difference between winner and runner-up. Two years ago, Keith Mitchell came out of nowhere to nip Fowler and Koepka by a stroke. He had only seven holes in which he didn't shoot par or better, and all seven were bogeys -- no doubles. Fowler had a triple-bogey on No. 6 on Thursday and Koepka had three doubles on the week. You don't need to be a math whiz to know that if either of them could've minimized the damage the way Mitchell did, they would've won. Three years ago, Justin Thomas won with only six holes over par: five bogeys and a double.
We of course could not continue without mentioning the famed Bear Trap, one of the cute little nicknames that courses like to give themselves for their tough stretches. Here, it's Nos. 15 through 17, two par-3s sandwiching a par-4. On each of them, there is water on every full-length shot, and the trepidation is real. After that the golfers can exhale, as the 18th is a relative cakewalk, a par-5 at only 556 yards. Last year, No. 15 was the fourth-hardest hole on the course, bettered by a trio of long par-4s, Nos. 6, 10 and 11. At 479 yards, No. 6 is annually one of the hardest holes on the entire PGA Tour calendar.
The greens are large at an average of 7,000 square feet, though they are everybody's favorite surface: Bermudagrass. We should note that Jack Nicklaus oversaw course renovations in 2002, 2014 and again in 2018.
Weather-wise, we are looking at very warm temperatures, especially on Thursday and Friday. There's a chance of rain all four days, more so on Friday and Sunday. Most importantly, the wind will be strong all week in the teens mph and beyond.
Key Stats to Winning at PGA National
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling
• Ball Striking/Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Bogey Avoidance/Bogey Average
Past Champions
2020 – Sungjae Im
2019 – Keith Mitchell
2018 – Justin Thomas
2017 – Rickie Fowler
2016 - Adam Scott
2015 – Padraig Harrington
2014 – Russell Henley
2013 – Michael Thompson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Rory Sabbatini
Champion's Profile
It's all about minimizing mistakes, not eliminating them, because they simply cannot be avoided at PGA National. We detailed earlier how Mackenzie Hughes had two doubles to Im's none -- and lost by one stroke. We're not looking for any cowboys this week. Make par and be happy. Some guys are better suited for that type of golf. Boring golf pays dividends this week. Hit the ball in the fairway, get it on the green, take your par or an occasional birdie and head to the next tee. But getting it on the green is no easy task at the Honda. That's why scrambling is vitally important this week, perhaps more than any other week. In the past decade, the winner has been ranked top-10 in scrambling nine times. Im was fifth, along with second in greens in regulation while only 38th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Runner-up Hughes was first in SG: Around-the-Green. Two years ago, Mitchell scrambled his butt off and ranked second in the field. Lucas Glover, who tied for fourth with Ryan Palmer, ranked first. Three years ago, 1-2 finishers Thomas and Luke List were 1-2 in scrambling, respectively. The year before, Fowler and co-runners-up Gary Woodland and Morgan Hoffmann all finished top-10 in scrambling. And in 2016, the top-8 finishers were all top-12 in scrambling. While putting has not been paramount to winning, a really good way to avoid a big number is to sink a 10-foot putt for par, or bogey. Golfodds.com posted the over/under on the winning score at 272.5 -- 7.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Sungjae Im - $11,000 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 14-1)
Im has been good but not great over the past few months. Since his runner-up at the Masters, he has only one top-10 in 10 starts, and that was in the limited field at the Tournament of Champions. But he does have five top-25s, including the past two weeks at Bay Hill and THE PLAYERS. Wedge play is the weakest part of his game -- not optimum this week -- but he still checks in at 12th on Tour in bogey average. And, of course, he found a way to win last year.
Daniel Berger - $10,800 (10-1)
Berger withdrew from this week's event due to a rib injury.
Berger has two top-5s here through the years, including last year's T4, and thus is the betting favorite at golfodds.com. He notched a very quiet top-10 last week at TPC Sawgrass, and is coming off a recent win at Pebble Beach. Scrambling is not his best stat, but he's still well above average. Plus, he's ranked top-30 on Tour in bogey avoidance and bogey average. Berger disclosed early in the week that he is dealing with a rib injury but was able to perform at THE PLAYERS, and he hopes and expects to play this week. With the Masters so close, we don't think he would do anything to jeopardize that, so if he stays in the field it's a green light to roster him.
Lee Westwood - $10,600 (20-1)
Westwood has played the Honda great through the years -- including fourth a year ago -- yet you have to wonder if he'll run out of gas after two high-pressure weeks in a row. He's playing great at 47 -- but he's 47. Westwood ranked second in scrambling at Sawgrass and seventh the week before at Bay Hill.
Russell Henley - $9,800 (25-1)
A good week could propel the 2014 champion and 60th-ranked Henley into the top 50 of the OWGR and a spot in the Masters. He has not been especially sharp of late, but he did finish eighth here last year. Henley ranks second on Tour in bogey avoidance.
Tier 2 Values
Talor Gooch - $9,300 (35-1)
Gooch notched his third top-5 of the season last week in a field three times as strong as this one. He finished 38th at least year's Honda Classic and 20th the year before, and he is far more accomplished now. His Strokes-Gained numbers show quality, though not greatness, across the board, and that's a good skill set for this week. He is a great scrambler, ranking ninth on Tour.
Brendan Steele - $8,700 (40-1)
It's no surprise that Steele has had many good results at the Honda, including a top-5 last year. He is a premier ball-striker whose weak putting is often camouflaged at PGA National. He has not missed a cut in seven starts in 2021 and was top-20 at Bay Hill. Steele is ranked 50th on Tour in SG: Around-the-Green. He is T41 in bogey average despite not having a strong putter to fall back on.
Dylan Frittelli - $8,200 (60-1)
Frittelli is ranked an elite ninth on Tour in SG: Around-the-Green. He had missed three cuts in a row entering THE PLAYERS but apparently found something at Sawgrass in tying for 22nd. He tied for 11th at PGA National three years ago, though he hasn't been able to duplicate that the past two years.
Ian Poulter - $8,100 (50-1)
Poulter has been up and down so far in 2021, missing the cut last week after a near-top-25 at Bay Hill (T26). That's right about where he finished here last year -- a tie for 27th. Poulter is an outstanding seventh on Tour in scrambling and a not-too-bad 51st in bogey avoidance.
Tier 3 Values
Wyndham Clark - $8,000 (60-1)
Clark finished 11th here last year and seventh in 2019, when he was the 54-hole leader. That outweighs missed cuts the past two weeks at Sawgrass and Bay Hill. Besides, he was T8 at Riviera before that. Interestingly, Clark has been a great driver and putter in the past, but is struggling in both areas now. But he's ranked 25th in SG: Around-the-Green. He's also an elite sixth in bogey average.
Brandon Wu - $7,800 (60-1)
At No. 163, the Korn Ferry star is ranked higher than many guys on the PGA Tour. He's made only two starts in 2021, one on the KF Tour and a tie for seventh at the Puerto Rico Open. He's ranked second on the KF Tour in greens in regulation. Tellingly, he has very short odds at 60-1.
Zach Johnson - $7,400 (80-1)
With Johnson, there's really only one stat that matters: He has made 13 straight cuts, extending his streak in last week's loaded PLAYERS field. Somehow, someway, he almost always manages to find his way to the weekend. Sure, $7,400 is a bit high of a price to pay just to hope a guy makes the cut. But with Johnsons ranking 33rd in greens in regulation and 11th in SG: Putting, there's some upside for a high finish in a terribly weak field.
Matt Jones - $7,400 (80-1)
Jones has missed only one cut in his past 11 starts (Bay Hill) and tied for eighth at a tough Riviera track. He's ranked 19th on Tour in scrambling and 29th in SG: Putting, which help explain a ranking of T10 in bogey avoidance.
Long-Shot Values
Jim Furyk - $6,900 (125-1)
Furyk hasn't played only about half as much as most PGA Tour players, but he's ranked first in bogey avoidance. There aren't many more conservative players than the 50-year-old Furyk, who tied for 26th at Riviera last time out. He's ranked fourth in driving accuracy and second in greens in regulation. Talk about senior golf!
Charl Schwartzel - $6,800 (125-1)
Schwartzel has not been a top player for a few years now, but there's something about PGA National that brings out the best in him. He's finished top-20 the past two years, and had tp-10s in 2012-13. Schwartzel has made the cut in six of 12 starts this season with three top-25s, including at a couple of tough tracks in Augusta and Torrey Pines.
Scott Stallings - $6,500 (150-1)
Stallings has made the Honda cut in five of his six visits, and someone who's ranked third on Tour in scrambling has a good chance to keep it going. He is also ranked fourth on Tour in bogey avoidance, which is pretty amazing for a guy who has missed more cuts than he's made. Stallings is also ranked top-25 in SG: Approach.
Hank Lebioda - $6,000 (500-1)
We can't recalling ever going this low -- to the very bottom of the DK board. Lebioda has made six of 10 cuts this season, including two top-25s. He doesn't shoot many low rounds, but he rarely blows up either -- just four rounds over 72 all season. Ranking fifth in scrambling definitely helps, and Lebioda is also ranked ninth on Tour in bogey avoidance.
