This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $6M
Winner's Share: $1.080M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Greensboro, N.C.
Course: Sedgefield Country Club
Yardage: 7,127
Par: 70
2017 champion: Henrik Stenson
Tournament Preview
Spoiler alert: While CBS will go to great lengths this weekend to keep us on the edge of our seats -- "He's inside the top-125!" ... "Oh no! He's out!" -- there will be a lot more drama than actual player movement. As we know, the Wyndham Championship is the annual regular-season finale on the PGA Tour, and golfers finishing inside the top 125 in the standings qualify for the playoffs and get Tour cards for next season. As many may not know, in the 11-year history of the FedExCup playoffs, fewer than three players on average per year have climbed inside the top 125 at the Wyndham, according to the Tour's website. Last year, four golfers made the leap at the last possible moment. On the other hand, back in 2013, it was zero. (At this point we should probably note that for all the drama that will materialize -- in all seriousness, it really can be riveting TV -- it's not enough to get Jim Nantz and Nick Faldo to show up. They annually take the week off.)
It's hard for the Wyndham to attract a strong field. All the top guys are already secure for next year, if not forever, and are gearing up for three straight weeks of playoff events beginning next week. Factor in that the Bridgestone and PGA took place the past two weeks, and most golfers don't want to play six weeks in a row (after the third playoff event, there's a week off before the season-ending Tour Championship). The good news for tournament organizers is that the field is pretty strong this year, at least in terms of name recognition.
Henrik Stenson is back to the defend his title, and he and Webb Simpson represent the top 20 in the OWGR. They'll be joined by a strong contingent of internationals: Hideki Matsuyama, Sergio Garcia, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry and Julian Suri. Last year, Stenson played only because he needed to reach the minimum 15 tournaments to keep his Tour card. For Garcia, this will be his 15th event, but he currently is outside the top 125, at 131st. Likewise, Matsuyama was a late entrant in an effort to boost his 88th-place standing in the points race. Some of the bigger-name Americans on hand besides Simpson are Daniel Berger, 2007 Wyndham champ Brandt Snedeker and Jason Dufner. One other name stands out: Joaquin Niemann. The Chilean teenager has been a sensation, with four top-10s and two other top-25s since turning pro after the Masters. He's accumulated enough non-member points to secure his card for next year, though the only way he can reach the playoffs is to win this week. Stranger things have happened.
Sedgefield is among of the shortest courses the golfers will see all season. One of its prime defenses is narrow fairways. They average only 26 yards wide at the 275-yard mark, dropping down to 22 by 325. That's far slimmer than Glen Abbey, where we last saw many of these golfers the week before the Bridgestone. On the other hand, when a course is so short, even wayward drives are recoverable from the rough with a wedge in hand. The tournament has always been a birdie-fest, with the winning score often in the 15- to 20-under range, though last year Stenson shot a tournament-record 22-under to edge Ollie Schnieiderjans by a stroke. The greens are a bit large for such a short course, but the Donald Ross design counters that with undulations and run-offs. Last year, Sedgefield ranked as the 14th easiest track out of 50. The hardest hole was the par-4, 507-yard 18th, but it wasn't that hard, playing to a 4.2 average. There are only two par-5s, and they're both not much longer than the 18th: the 5th is 529 yards, the 15th is 545.
Weather-wise, this will be the typical Carolina summer swelter. It will be hot and sticky all week, and right now the forecast is calling for minimal rain and wind. In other words, the tournament will be one big green-light special. Identify golfers capable of going low, which we will expand on in the key stats and Champion's Profile below.
Fun FedEx fact: Only four golfers have ever moved from outside the top 140 and into the playoffs at the Wyndham. Last year, Rory Sabbatini did it with a tie for fourth. The biggest jump ever was by Davis Love III, famously winning at age 51 in 2015 to climb from 186th to 76th. That was the year that Tiger Woods made a last-gasp effort to reach the playoffs and, like he has done in recent weeks, made a Sunday charge only to fall short at the end. He tied for 10th.
Key Stats to Winning at Sedgefield Country Club (in order of importance)
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained: tee to green
• Putting average/strokes gained putting
• Proximity to the hole
• Par 4 birdie or better
Past Champions
2017 - Henrik Stenson
2016 - Si Woo Kim
2015 - Davis Love III
2014 - Camilo Villegas
2013 - Patrick Reed
2012 - Sergio Garcia
2011 - Webb Simpson
2010 - Arjun Atwal
2009 - Ryan Moore
2008 - Carl Pettersson
Champion's Profile
Stenson shot 22-under last year, one better than Kim the year before. Stenson made a whopping 29 birdies. Kim had 25 plus an eagle. When you birdie more than a third of the holes, it's more than finding greens in regulation. You have to get the ball close to the hole (proximity) or make a lot of putts, or both. Stenson and Kim each led the field in proximity. Stenson was third in strokes gained: putting, though Kim was actually far back at 34th. If a golfer can excel in every area but one, as Kim did, then he won't need lights-out putting. But in any birdie-fest, putting matters. As for filling out lineups with some lesser guys, we will still rely mostly on current form, course history and stats. But there is something not so easily quantified that counts every bit as much: at crunch time, how will these guys fighting for their livelihoods handle the pressure?
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Webb Simpson - $11,600 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 12-1)
With Henrik Stenson possibly still slowed by an elbow injury and Hideki Matsuyama far off his game, Simpson is the top dollar on the DraftKings board and the tournament favorite. He plays the Wyndham every year, won it in 2011 and has five top-10s through the years. Simpson is also coming off top-25s in two majors and a WGC his past three starts. The fact that he secured an automatic Ryder Cup spot on Sunday may free him up to play even better.
Rafa Cabrera Bello - $10,100 (20-1)
It's was a bit of a surprise to see the Spaniard entered, though he has played the Wyndham twice before, tying for fifth two years ago. Cabrera Bello is coming off a tie for 10th at Bellerive and for 17th at Firestone. He's 13th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: tee to green, 26th in greens in regulation and 45th in proximity.
Joaquin Niemann - $9,700 (25-1)
This will be the last time we see the teenage sensation this season -- unless he wins. That's the only way Niemann can qualify for the playoffs. After the PGA Championship, he now has played enough to qualify for the stats rankings, and we can finally compare him to other top golfers. Get this: Niemann is ranked second on Tour in greens in regulation, second in proximity, fifth in strokes gained: approach, 12th in SG: off the tee and 15th in both SG: tee to green and total. Niemann is also first in par 4: birdie or better percentage. Just wow.
Tier 2 Values
Daniel Berger - $9,300 (30-1)
Berger has been slowed this season by a wrist injury, but he's coming off a tie for 12th at the PGA and was also T6 at the U.S. Open. That's his lone top-10 all season. Berger has played Sedgefield only once before, missing the cut three years ago. But he comes in 83rd in the standings and is looking to make a big move this week.
Sergio Garcia - $9,200 (30-1)
Garcia has been a mess, and he missed another cut at the PGA. Still, there are 10 guys pricier than Garcia and, nearing $9,000, this is a value play, a good bargain. The Spaniard was the winner here back in 2012. For all his troubles this season, Garcia is still ranked 20th in strokes gained: approach and 39th in tee to green. He sits 131st in the standings, which is why he is entered this week.
Ryan Moore - $9,000 (30-1)
Moore is another former champion, winning a playoff in 2009. He also cashed top-25 two of the past three years. This has not been Moore's best season, though he finished in the top 15 in three of his past six starts, including at the Open Championship. Moore is ranked 17th in strokes gained: tee to green.
Julian Suri - $8,700 (50-1)
Suri plays on the European Tour, but he's actually a New York City native. He's coming off his first major in the States, tying for 19th at Bellerive. And before you ask what a New Yorker playing in Europe knows about Carolina golf, Suri was a 2012 all-American at Duke.
Ollie Schniederjans - $8,600 (40-1)
Schniederjans was the runner-up to Henrik Stenson last year. It will be hard to replicate such a high finish, but he's familiar with the region, having attended Georgia Tech. Schniederjans is tied for 14th in par 4: birdie or better.
Tier 3 Values
Kevin Tway - $8,100 (60-1)
Tway has been playing the best golf of his career. He's made nine of his past 10 cuts, with of them three top-10s and five of them top-25s. He's one of the longest hitters, ranking 14th in driving distance. Tway hasn't made a cut in two visits to Sedgefield, including last year, but that was a different Kevin Tway. At 93rd in the standings, he will not play with the pressure of having to keep his card.
C.T. Pan - $7,800 (60-1)
Like Tway, Pan made nine of his past 10 cuts, with four of them being top-25s. The 26-year-old from Chinese Tapei is ranked 11th in greens in regulation and 17th in driving accuracy.
Chris Kirk - $7,500 (60-1)
At 60th in the standings, Kirk could use this week as a springboard to perhaps reach the Tour Championship. It's not that far-fetched. He made 11 of his past 12 cuts going back to April, four of them top-25s. Kirk is ranked seventh in proximity, 13th in strokes gained: approach and 34th in SG: tee to green.
Johnson Wagner - $7,500 (60-1)
Wagner was 24th here last year and fifth the year before. He will need another week like that, as he's 136th in the point standings. If Wagner does make the playoffs, he'll likely do so on the strength of his short game. He is ranked 16th in strokes gained: putting and 32nd in SG: around the green.
Long-Shot Values
Ryan Armour - $7,100 (80-1)
Armour's quality summer landed him in the PGA Championship, but that was probably too big of a jump in class -- he missed the cut. But Armour has finished in the top 10 in two of his three visits to Sedgefield, including T4 last year, when he fired a second-round 61. Armour is third in driving accuracy and 27th in proximity, and he's a very impressive 41st in the standings.
Robert Garrigus - $7,000 (150-1)
Garrigus missed only one cut in seven trips to the Wyndham over the past decade, tying for 22nd two years ago. He needs another good week, as he enters 127th in points. Garrigus is a bomber not afraid to go for it -- he's ranked T14 in par 4: birdie or better.
Hunter Mahan - $6,900 (100-1)
Mahan will need a huge week -- he's 155th in points. We don't know whether he can crack the top 125, but we do know he's been playing decently of late. He tied for 23rd at the Barracuda a couple of weeks ago and was T7 at the Barbasol. Sure, those were opposite-field events, but how much stronger is the Wyndham field? Mahan tied for 16th here last year. He's ranked 28th in strokes gained: off the tee and 25th in putting.
Brandon Harkins - $6,900 (125-1)
Harkins is well inside the top-125 at 91st, with a T9 at the Barracuda in his last start to secure his card. Harkins is ranked 21st in par 4: birdie or better, in large part because he's in the top-50 on Tour in strokes gained: putting.
