PGA Championship Preview: Fleetwood's the Safe Play

Majors bring an extra level of excitement because there are so many golfers potentially in the mix. Sure, it would be nice if more of the top golfers in the world were in better form as we enter this year's PGA Championship, but that doesn't necessarily matter because form can turn on a dime. It's one reason why golf is so tough to predict. One week a guy is completely locked in and the next, he misses the cut. His skills didn't just leave him for good, they just left him for a day or two, but that's all it takes.

Golfers can be bad putters one week and phenomenal putters the next. A bomber off the tee who doesn't generally hit fairways can suddenly hit just about every fairway in a given round. That's stuff you just can't predict and it's partially why I don't get too caught up in which "type" of player a given major suits. You can fit any narrative to the winner after the fact, but the golfer who wins the next major is simply the guy who best put together all parts of his game.

That's not to say there's no hope for us. There are obviously things we can do to pinpoint the golfer most likely to be in perfect alignment prior to each major, but rather than focus on the top ball-strikers or putters, maybe it's best to just find the golfers who are closest to putting it all together.

This week: The PGA Championship - Bellerive Country Club, St. Louis

Last Year: Justin Thomas shot a final-round 68 on his way to a two-stroke victory over three players including Francesco Molinari and Patrick Reed.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Dustin Johnson

If we are looking for someone with a strong foundation heading into this week it's DJ, who won two starts back and finished T3 at the WGC-Bridgestone last week. Most impressive was the furious rally that he mounted during the final round last week. It would have been easy to mail it in after a slow start, but he fought all the way to the end.

Justin Thomas

It's all just too much for Thomas this week. He's the defending champion, he cruised to victory last week and he has a history of getting hot for weeks at a time. This is where the law of averages comes into play, however. It's not an actual force that stops a golfer from winning when everything is lined up, but it's something to overcome nonetheless. That said, Thomas is as good as it gets when he's rolling and he's certainly rolling now.

Tommy Fleetwood

To my surprise, Fleetwood managed to not only hang in there last week at the WGC-Bridgestone, but he was actually in the lead at the halfway point. Unfortunately for Fleetwood, he couldn't hang on, but his play early last week was a sign that he's still in good form. Fleetwood feels like one of the safest plays in the field this week as he's continually risen to the occasion the last couple months.

Francesco Molinari

He was the hottest player on the planet entering last week and now he's fallen off the radar. At least, he's not nearly as highly thought of as the top-tier golfers this week. This looks like a good buy-low opportunity, though. Although he played poorly last week, that could be chalked up to several factors, not the least of which was a poor track record at Bridgestone – and he'd just won his first major. Molinari finished T2 at the PGA Championship last year, and while it's a new venue, it's still good to know he can handle the pressure and the setup of an event like this.

Andrew Putnam

It's rare that a golfer with form as strong as Putnam's is a sleeper, but this is a major and the Pepperdine product just hasn't established his name yet. That will likely change soon if he can play near his current level for any length. Putnam won the Barracuda last week, which came a week after a top-10 at the Canadian Open and two months after a runner-up showing at the St. Jude Classic. He certainly doesn't have a strong major record, but that's why he's a sleeper.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Sergio Garcia

I mentioned last week that this seems like a lost season for Garcia, and even though golfers can turn things around quickly, Garcia likely will need an offseason to get back on track. Garcia has missed his last four cuts entering this week and a fifth consecutive MC is more likely than not.

Bryson DeChambeau

DeChambeau nearly won overseas a couple weeks ago, but he took some heat for his behavior in defeat. It was just another strange episode in what has become a bizarre run for DeChambeau. Although he's as smart as they come on the PGA Tour, I'm not sold that he's mentally squared away at this point in his career. DeChambeau will be a factor at many future majors, but not this one.

Jordan Spieth

Spieth is obviously a guy you would never sit during a major if you had started multiple guys, but if you are in a one-and-done, or perhaps in a PGA Championship pool, I would steer clear this week. I surmised prior to the British Open that Spieth had a history of playing well even when his form entering a major was poor, but there's something that's just off and I don't think he can fix it in time to win this week.

Jason Dufner

Dufner is safely inside the top 125 on the FedEx Cup points list, but that's about all that has gone right this season. In addition to his merely average play this season, he hasn't played much either. Perhaps the two are related? Whatever the reason, Dufner is not sharp entering this week, which means it's an easy pass.

Justin Rose

As of Tuesday morning, Rose is still listed in the field, but he's just a week removed from a late withdrawal from the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational with back spasms. If healthy, Rose is one of the favorites this week. Unfortunately, we simply won't know how he's feeling prior to the first round. He'll likely give it a go either way, so even if he's teeing off Thursday, that's still not a solid indicator that he's better. It's the final major of the season and there's too much on the line to risk it on a guy who could be gone in an instant because of injury.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Xander Schauffele (68) - $47,750; Season - $8,193,270

This week: Francesco Molinari - I don't have a lot of ammunition left, but I feel pretty good about this pick. I certainly don't like the way he played last week, but I had to remind myself that Molinari had a terrible track record at Bridgestone, so even though he was on fire heading in, it made perfect sense that he stumbled. The other option I considered was Marc Leishman, but I am troubled by his poor track record at PGA Championships. And he's had trouble closing this season.

PGATOUR.COM PICKS

Starters: Tommy Fleetwood, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler

Bench: Justin Thomas, Jason Day

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: N/A - (N/A); Streak - 5

This week: Tommy Fleetwood - By my estimation, Fleetwood is among the five most reliable players on the PGA Tour. He's not at that elite level yet because he hasn't won a major or even a PGA Tour event, but he's played at a consistently high level for a while now and there are few people I would trust more in this spot than him. Fleetwood has been battling his driver recently yet still managed top-15s the last two weeks. Imagine what happens if he figures out the driver?