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RBC Canadian Open
After being canceled each of the last two years due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the RBC Canadian Open returns to the PGA Tour schedule in 2022. This time it will be contested at St. George's Golf and Country Club in Toronto, which marks the first time the Canadian National Open has been held at the Stanley Thompson track since 2010. Rory McIlroy is the defending champion thanks to his win back in 2019, when he won by seven strokes at Hamilton Golf and Country Club in large part due to his 9-under, final-round 61.
Profiling the Winner
St. George's underwent a restoration in 2014 to take the course back to its original design. The greens were changed to bentgrass and some of the slopes were removed to provide more potential hole locations. Some of the fairways and bunkers were adjusted as well. This course projects to play a lot like Muirfield Village last week. The landing areas are pretty generous, but if you miss the fairways you will have to contend with long and thick rough. St. George's has also been described as a "second shot golf course" due to the small and narrow greens. Players will need complete control off uneven lies in the fairways to get the ball close to the hole and avoid constant scrambling.
The saving grace for the players may be some heavy rain early in the week that will soften the greens during the tournament. If St. George's was baked out, we would see very low GIR numbers on the minuscule greens. Another similarity to Muirfield Village is the long rough in close proximity to the putting surfaces, which will make chipping more difficult but also decrease the gap between the best and worst short game players. The bentgrass greens will run at about 12.5 on the Stimpmeter, which is well up from 2010, when the greens featured more tilt.
Category Picks
Premium Picks
Players Included: Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith, Sam Burns
Guru Verdict: This is an absolutely loaded category. The hairs you have to split here become even narrower given the fact that there is no course to rely on. I'm going to go with Thomas. He's had some time to stabilize since winning the PGA Championship and will want to get dialed in going into next week's U.S. Open. Thomas has been elite all the way through the bag this season, ranking top-20 in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach and SG: Around-the-Green. He is also 21st in GIR percentage, ninth in proximity to the hole, sixth in scrambling, third in sand-save percentage and second in putts per GIR.
Short Game Wizards
Players Included: Matt Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry, Chris Kirk, Tyrrell Hatton, Keith Mitchell
Guru Verdict: Lowry is coming off a T32 at the Memorial, which was his first finish outside the top 25 in a stroke play event since a missed cut at the Houston Open last fall. Because of his strong iron play, I expect the Irishman to bounce back in a big way at a course like St. George's. Lowry ranks 11th in SG: Approach and second in proximity to the hole this season, which are both the best of any player in this category. Lowry is also leading the PGA Tour in scrambling and is 14th in SG: Putting.
Front-Runners
Players Included: Sebastian Munoz, Adam Hadwin, Patrick Reed, Corey Conners, Tony Finau, Sahith Theegala
Guru Verdict: The man with the best chance to become the first Canadian since 1954 to win the Canadian Open may very well be Hadwin. The 34-year-old ranks top-35 on the PGA Tour in SG: Approach, SG: Around-the-Green, GIR percentage, proximity to the hole, scrambling and sand-save percentage. Hadwin is coming off a solid T18 at Muirfield Village, which again, looks a lot like this week's track.
Big Hitters
Players Included: Jhonattan Vegas, Cameron Champ, Rasmus Hojgaard, Harold Varner III, Joseph Bramlett
Guru Verdict: I'm going to go with the most consistent player in this category and that is Varner. The 31-year-old has made eight straight cuts, a stretch that includes three top-6 finishes and six top-30 results. Putting has always been the weakness in Varner's game, but this season he ranks sixth in putts per round and sixth in one-putt percentage. He is also top-45 in SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green and proximity to the hole.
Challengers
Players Included: C.T. Pan, Mackenzie Hughes, Justin Rose, Brendon Todd, J.J. Spaun, Pat Perez
Guru Verdict: This is a place where Todd should be able to find success. The course is short by PGA Tour standards, but the rough is penal and driving accuracy should be pretty important. Todd has been one of the shortest players on the PGA Tour throughout his career, but also one of the most accurate. He has been on a good run of late, with four top-26 finishes in his last six starts, including a solo third at Colonial a couple weeks ago. Todd remains one of the top putters on the PGA Tour and is also 12th in scrambling this season.
Outsiders
Players Included: Dylan Frittelli, Nick Taylor, David Lipsky, Aaron Rai, Adam Long, Mark Hubbard
Guru Verdict: This is probably the trickiest category to navigate, as there are clear holes in each golfer's game. I like what I have seen from Lipsky over the last few months, however. Lipsky has made 9-of-11 cuts, and during that stretch he posted five top-26 finishes. The 33-year-old ranks top-60 on the PGA Tour in a number of key stats already discussed, such as SG: Approach, driving accuracy, GIR percentage and proximity to the hole.
Wild Cards
Players Included: Alex Smalley, Austin Smotherman, Emiliano Grillo, Vince Whaley, Matthias Schwab, Stephan Jaeger
Guru Verdict: Smotherman appears primed for a very good week at St. George's. He ranks 26th in SG: Approach, 44th in GIR percentage and 10th in proximity to the hole this season. The PGA Tour rookie is also a great driver, ranking 29th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 19th in total driving. Smotherman made the cut in his last four starts, two of which resulted in top-25 finishes. He has easily been the best ball striker this season among players included in this category.
Editor's Note: More Pick's from Len Hochberg and Matt Hardy (Video)
Ryan's Selections
Premium Picks: Justin Thomas
Short Game Wizards: Shane Lowry
Front-Runners: Adam Hadwin
Big Hitters: Harold Varner III
Challengers: Brendon Todd
Outsiders: David Lipsky
Wild Cards: Austin Smotherman
