Weekly PGA Preview: 3M Open

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

3M Open 

TPC Twin Cities
Blaine, MN

The PGA Tour heads to Blaine, MN this week for another edition of the 3M Open.

Before we get to that, some words on the season's final major. I want to talk today about pressure, be it real or perceived. I mention real or perceived because coming into this season, there was pressure on Xander Schauffele to find his first major. Now, was this actual pressure on Schauffele, or was this something that we like to think is there, but isn't actually on the mind of the golfer? That we may never know, but I don't think that it's a coincidence that two months after his first major, he assumes control of a large pack of golfers on a Sunday at the Open Championship and picks up major number two. Does Schauffele come out of the pack like that without the confidence of having won a major? I don't know, but I can tell you this - as someone watching on Sunday, I felt confidence that Schauffele would pull away from the group of players in the hunt and my confidence was based in the fact that he had won a major earlier in the season. Again, we can't know exactly what goes through the mind of an athlete as they are in the heat of competition, but it makes sense that once you've accomplished something, it makes it easier to do it again...unless you wait a decade and then things get tougher, but we'll save talk about Rory McIlroy for another day.                                                                                             

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 4:00 PM ET Tuesday.                   

LAST TIME

Lee Hodges shot a final-round 67 on his way to a seven-stroke victory over three players, including J.T. Poston and Kevin Streelman. 

FAVORITES

Tony Finau (11-1) 

As expected, the field is not very strong this, but we do have a few names, so it won't be a cake walk even for the better players. Finau has shown an allegiance to this event since the beginning and though I'm not sure why, as someone who lives near this event, I appreciate his presence. Finau got off to a nice start this past week at the Open, but he blew up in tough conditions on Friday, which probably helps him this week as he had a couple more days to get re-acclimated in the states. Finau won this event in 2022 and has finished no worse than T28 in five starts. His odds are long enough to make a play here.           

Sam Burns (18-1)

Burns has not taken the next step this season like many of us expected, but that's not to say that he's been terrible this season. Burns has flashed his upside on several occasions this season, but he's seemingly lost all of his consistency, which wasn't an issue in previous seasons. Burns has played this event twice, but both starts came prior to 2021 when his game started to improve, so it's hard to gauge what those starts mean. While he's good enough to win any given week, I can't see putting money on him to win at the moment. 

Akshay Bhatia (20-1) / Sahith Theegala (22-1)

An interesting pair here as they are playing as polar opposites this season. Bhatia has shown a lot of consistency this season, while Theegala has been hit or miss. Both have the talent to win this week, but if I'm choosing between the two, I'm probably going with Bhatia as he's given himself a chance to win more often this season. That and Theegala's track record here is awful, with three MCs in three starts. This will be Bhatia's first time at the 3M Open.   

THE NEXT TIER

Luke Clanton (25-1)

Is Clanton the next big thing on the PGA Tour? The odds makers sure seem to like him as he was installed as one of the favorites at the ISCO Championship earlier this month in just his 4th start on the PGA Tour. That week didn't pan out for Clanton, but he's had a couple weeks to get ready for the 3M Open and who knows, maybe he takes advantage of a course that has plenty of birdie opportunities. This will obviously be his first start at this event, but it wasn't that long ago that a new pro's Matthew Wolff and Collin Morikawa were battling for the title here, so course knowledge might not be all that important this week.  

Tom Hoge (33-1)

Hoge has missed his past two cuts on the PGA Tour, but those both came in Europe on links-style courses. When we last saw him in the states, he was surging to a 3rd-place finish at the Travelers Championship. Hoge is tracking to his first $5 million season on the PGA Tour and a strong finish here could get him there before the playoffs even start. His track record here isn't great, but he has played in all five 3M Opens, which means he probably likes this track and he did finish in the top-5 in 2022.  

J.T. Poston (35-1)             

Poston is one good finish away from posting a career high in earnings and this week might be his best chance. Poston was better earlier in the year than he's been over the past few months, but he's returning to a course where he's had some success, so perhaps he'll get a boost heading into the playoffs. Poston finished in a tie for second at this event this past year and he posted a T11 the year prior, so he definitely has a feel for this track.                                           

LONG SHOTS

Emiliano Grillo (60-1)    

Grillo had an outstanding 2023 season, but in 2024 he's fallen back down the levels that we saw during his 2017-2022 season, which weren't bad, but nowhere near what we saw in 2023. With that said, he's returning to a place where he's had a lot of success, so perhaps he can get a kickstart as he heads into the playoffs. Grillo has played this event four times and he's finished inside the top-10 in three of those starts. Two of his four starts have resulted in top-3s.

Lee Hodges (70-1)          

Hodges hasn't accomplished much this season, but he's still on the brink of making it back to the FedEx playoffs with a good showing down the stretch. That stretch starts this week as there isn't much time to crack the top-70. There will be some added pressure as the defending champ, but on the flip side, perhaps a return to the site of his first and only PGA Tour win will boost his confidence and get him going. Hodges is just outside the top-70 entering this week, so he'll need to have a strong finish in one of the final events leading up to the playoffs.                

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Tony Finau - The weekly disclaimer, it's impossible to know who is left at this point in the season, so I simply have to go with the best picks. While Finau might be of better use with a bigger purse at stake, your options for using him are dwindling and this will be his best chance to win down the stretch. If you've got him, use him here rather than the playoffs, provided you have enough good options for the playoffs.                          

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Tom Hoge - Assuming the top players are either not available or will be used by the top teams in your league, you'll want to find someone with high upside, but that won't be all that popular and Hoge should fit that bill. Hoge hasn't been at his best very often this season, but he's still good enough to take advantage of a thin field. 

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Emiliano Grillo - Grillo has not played his best this season, and with only a handful of events left on the schedule, most OAD players will be looking elsewhere this week. This is undoubtedly a risky play, but if you're back in the standings, you don't have much to lose at this point anyway, so you might as well take a risk.                      

Buyer Beware: Billy Horschel - There's no doubt that Horschel is playing well entering this event, but there could be a hangover effect after missing out on a great opportunity to win a major. As good as Horschel has been throughout his career, he hasn't had many chances at winning a major, so this one might hurt. Plus, he's got to deal with the late travel back to the states, so maybe he's a total wreck this week.                                                         

This Week: Tony Finau - I'm all but eliminated in my personal OAD league, so rather than chase after some huge long shot, I'm simply going to try and finish out the season as best as I can and this week that means taking Finau, even though there are likely to be several people ahead of me with him.    

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Tony Finau ($12,000) 
Middle Range: Cam Davis ($10,600) 
Lower Range: Cameron Champ ($8,100)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Cam Davis - Finau is the best option here, but I used him early in the season. I also used Poston in this format, so my options are a bit limited. With that said, Davis looks like a good option as he's made the cut here and finished in the top-30 the past four years. I couldn't find room for Davis anywhere above, but he's also a good option for OAD formats.

Previous Results