Weekly Preview: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Pebble Beach Golf Links
Pebble Beach, CA

The PGA Tour heads to Pebble Beach for another AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Before we get to that, let's take a quick look back. I don't always do that, but when something interesting happens, I feel I need to make mention. This past week the interesting item was the line movement on Jon Rahm. I mentioned in the write-up that his odds of 9-2 didn't provide enough value and perhaps a mid-tourney bet would be a better route. As it turns out, no win bet on Rahm was the better route, but for a time, it looked like a post 1st round bet was the way to go as he was up to 18-1 after a slow start. Even after a solid round-two, 6-1 was available in some spots. The point is, that if you don't like the initial odds you see, there's often a good chance that you can get better odds if you just wait a bit. It takes some resolve however as in order to get better odds, your guy needs to start slowly, but just look what Rahm did this past week. He started slowly and by the time Sunday rolled around, he was the clear favorite. Sure, he didn't come through, but more often than not, a guy like Rahm is going to seal the deal in a situation like that.

Now, onto this week, we've got the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which also has a rotation of courses. The courses in play this year are Spyglass Hill, Monterey Peninsula and of course Pebble Beach. Just like this past week, there is a difference among the courses with Spyglass rating as the toughest and Monterey Peninsula as the easiest.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 2:00 PM ET Wednesday.

LAST YEAR

Tom Hoge shot a final-round 68 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Jordan Spieth.

FAVORITES

Matt Fitzpatrick (11-1)

It's amazing what a major championship does to your standing on the PGA Tour. I don't recall Fitzpatrick being a favorite on the PGA Tour prior to this week and if so, the likes of Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth certainly weren't in the field. The perception of Fitzpatrick has changed, both by the oddsmakers and the public and as such, he's getting a lot of respect this week. The problem with Fitzpatrick is that we haven't seen him for a long time, so we aren't sure about his form (at least in the states) and his track record here is mixed, with just one good showing in three starts. I'm passing on Fitzpatrick at this number.

Jordan Spieth (11-1)

Based on track record alone, Spieth would be an easy favorite, but since his play fell off a cliff a few years ago, you never know what you are going to get with Spieth anymore. He's obviously brought his game up from the depths of a terrible slump a couple years ago, but he's not the same player that won multiple majors...yet. Part of the issue with Spieth in his current form is the lack of consistency and as such, it's hard to be confident about him when placing a win wager.

Viktor Hovland (11-1)

Speaking of lack of consistency, Hovland entered 2022 on a high as he played very well to close out 2021, but he never saw that same form again in 2022. He's super talented, there's no doubt, but when is he going to take it to the next level and join the elite of the PGA Tour? Hovland has played well this season, but he hasn't had the high-end finishes that we've come to expect from him and without a track record here, there's no reason to place a win wager on him this week. One thing to keep in mind this week is that those without much experience at this event have three courses to get accustomed to, which is obviously more difficult than just one.

THE NEXT TIER

Maverick McNealy (17-1)

McNealy is a California guy who plays very well out west, so it makes sense that he's just outside the group of favorites this week. McNealy has slowly improved each season on the PGA Tour and one of these years he's going to break out. A solid West Coast Swing this year would go a long way to aiding such a breakout and it looks like everything is set up for that this year. At these odds, McNealy has plenty of value and as such, he deserves a long look.

Tom Hoge (19-1)

When Hoge won here this past year, he was a relative unknown, but not that he's got a $4 million season under his belt, he's no longer going to sneak up on anyone. Hoge wasted no time backing up that $4 million season either as he's already made nearly $2 million this season. His game is where it needs to be to defend this title, but there's the rub, he's the defending champ, which always complicates things. With that said, Hoge has the game to win again this year and at this price, there's enough value.

Joel Dahmen (36-1)

It's not often you see odds like this in my mid-tier picks, but the odds fall off a cliff after about the first 5-6 players this week and outside of the two players mentioned, I don't like anyone else in this range. Dahmen is a bit of stretch as well, but there are a couple things to like. One thing I don't like is that this will be his first start this season, but he is coming off a great fall stretch, so perhaps he's still locked in. He also played well here this past year on his way to a T6, so at this number there's reason to make this play.

LONG SHOTS

Thomas Detry (48-1)

Detry was on plenty of sleeper lists entering this season and to this point, he hasn't disappointed. Detry is currently 16th on the FedEx points list and 81st in the World Golf Rankings. Though he's a relative unknown in the states, he does have a decent resume and he's not a young buck learning the ropes, he's a 30-yeard-old just hitting his stride. Detry is a solid candidate to find a win at some point this year and maybe it will be here, against a field that is light at the top.

Callum Tarren (75-1)

We haven't seen much of Tarren stateside, but what seems clear is that he runs very hot and very cold. He was running hot at the RSM Classic this past fall when he finished T2 and he showed some flashes this past week at the Farmers, but he faltered on the weekend and finished T25. The important point here is that when looking at long shots, you want guys that run hot and cold, you aren't interested in grinders that back door a top-25. Tarren has the game to win out here, not consistently, but every once in a while.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Viktor Hovland - I was debating (internally) which of the favorites would be the most popular this week and I landed on Hovland. Spieth has the track record, but not the form and Fitzpatrick is now a guy you want to save for elevated events, so that leaves Hovland, who struggled enough this past year at the majors that there is now some doubt if you need to save him for elevated events. With that said, I think he'll be fine this season, and I can't argue with this play as I'm not personally worried about saving Hovland either. There are 14 big purses left on the schedule, not counting the TOUR Championship.

Moderately-owned Pick: Maverick McNealy - As you can probably tell, I like this pick a lot this week and unfortunately, I think plenty of other people will as well. There's a lot to like, not the least of which is the fact that you don't have to worry about saving McNealy for elevated events. While he's getting better, he's not a top-15 guy yet, but he'll be a lot closer if he wins this week.

Lightly-owned Pick: Thomas Detry - I'm expected ownership to be very consolidated this week, so anyone outside the top-3 players will provide an opportunity to gain on the masses. Detry looks like the best option in that case as he has the upside and he's a player on the rise. The biggest issue this week is that Detry is a first timer at this event.

Buyer Beware: Jordan Spieth - I'll start by stating that there weren't really any good options in this spot. Part of the problem here is that in order to "beware" of someone, they need to have a higher status, and there are only a few players in the field this week with such status. I don't dislike any of them this week, but I will say that expectations on Spieth might be too high because of his track record here. He hasn't played since Hawaii and he didn't play well out there, so he becomes the best candidate for this distinction.

This Week: Joel Dahmen - With a win and a couple top-10s this past fall and a decent start to 2023, I feel like I'm still in good enough position to wait on the elite talent, so I'll again go a bit down the odds chart this week and use Dahmen in this spot. As mentioned above, there is some risk here because he hasn't played in a while, but he does know how to get around these tracks, so I can't imagine that he'll fall flat in this spot. 

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Maverick McNealy ($11,100)
Middle Range: Joel Dahmen ($10,600)
Lower Range: Justin Suh ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Maverick McNealy - Since we are talking about making cuts, I can finally say something bad about McNealy this week -- he missed the cut here once! It happened to be his first start here in 2018, so it's not quite as bad as it sounds. Since then, he's finished T5, 2nd and T33.

Previous Results