Weekly Preview: The Genesis Invitational

The Genesis Invitational

Riviera CC
Pacific Palisades, CA

The PGA Tour heads back west for the latest edition of the Genesis Invitational.

We are one week into the "elevated events" era and I'd say we're off to a good start. The PGA Tour must be ecstatic at the results of the first full-field elevated event, as not only did one of the best players in the world win, but another top-3 golfer was chasing him the entire way. For good measure Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas rounded out the top five finishers. The only thing better would have been a playoff with Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, but we can't have it all right away.

I'm expecting a similar result this week, as we have yet another elevated event. If that's the case, then we might start to see a pattern develop, one in which these elevated events are highly entertaining and the non-elevated events get pushed aside to some degree. To be honest, I'm more than okay with that. If we could get something like what played out in Phoenix a couple times a month, that would certainly be worth a bunch of duds on the schedule. Keep in mind that it doesn't have to be this way either -- there's no reason that the non-elevated events need to be a letdown, but with so many elite players saving themselves for the elevated events, it might be hard to get a lot of excitement outside of these bigger events. 

Riviera is a tough course, but one that most of the players in the field are very familiar with.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 2:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Joaquin Niemann shot a final-round 71 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Collin Morikawa and Cameron Young.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (7-1)

These are right around the odds Rahm entered last week's event with, and considering he was in the hunt nearly the entire way there was no reason to change his price. His form is still strong, and his track record here is much like it was in Scottsdale -- really good, but lacking in high-end finishes. He's going to be in the mix again, and the only question is whether or not he closes. At this number I'm probably passing on him, but if I can get a better price after round one, I might take another look.

Rory McIlroy (9-1)

I'm sure you see the pattern developing, and you're right -- same favorites, similar odds as this past week. One exception will be noted in a moment. Of the three favorites at Riviera, McIlroy is the one that didn't play well in Phoenix, but he didn't play poorly enough to make me think he's lost his edge. McIlroy has a good track record here as well, but nary a top-3 result. He should play well, but at his current price, I'm passing on him to start the week.

Scottie Scheffler (10-1)

As mentioned previously, it's the same three favorites, but Scheffler's odds have changed a bit. Last week he entered as the defending champion at 14-1, but he also hadn't won in about 10 months, so there were some lingering questions. That's not the case any longer, as Scheffler once again looks like the guy that steamrolled everyone this past spring. Scheffler's history here is pretty good, but he has just one top-10 in four starts. He should be in the mix, but at this number, I'm not sure he's worth a play before play starts.

THE NEXT TIER

Collin Morikawa (20-1)

I had Morikawa listed in the same spot this past week and he let me down. I'm not sure if his lack of success at TPC Scottsdale was the primary factor or if it was again the wind, which he's had a lot of issues with over the past two seasons. Whatever the case, I don't think his struggles in Phoenix will carry over. Morikawa got off to a strong start this season, and I don't think one bad week will throw him off. His history here is good enough to consider him for a win ticket.

Max Homa (20-1)

Homa is also in the same spot as he was last week. Unlike Morikawa, he flashed some game in Scottsdale, but in the end he wasn't much of a factor. The difference this time around is that we are back in California, where he thrives. Plus, his history at Riviera is much better than it was at Scottsdale. Homa won this event in 2021 and finished top-10 in each of his past three starts here.

Viktor Hovland (26-1)

Hovland was listed at 30-1 when I started writing this article, but he has already been bet down to this number. His game is close to where it needs to be, and he finished top-5 in his only two starts at Riviera.

LONG SHOTS

Sam Burns (30-1)

At some point this past Sunday, I thought to myself, "Was Burns in the field? Where's Burns been lately?" And then he popped up on the leaderboard. While he was never a threat, he did end up playing well over the course of four days and appears to be getting back into form. Burns' track record at Riviera is all over the place, but he did post a solo third here in 2021. These odds certainly aren't long, and I realize I'm jumping to conclusions, but I have a feeling that most of these elevated events will be won by top-25 guys, making actual long shots a thing of the past.

Adam Hadwin (100-1)

If this week plays out like the last one, I might restructure this article to have just one "long shot" and rename it the "Nick Taylor Section." Hadwin was in this mix this past weekend for a spell, but he couldn't keep up with Scheffler and Rahm in the end. His form is still solid, and he's had some success here in the past. Hadwin has missed just one cut in eight tries and finished no worse than 26th in five of those starts.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Max Homa - Big money is on the line again this week, so most OAD players will go big. While Homa isn't in the elite category, he's got more than enough game to win at Riviera. The problem is, he's going to be very popular for all the reasons mentioned above. If you are looking to make a move, you might want to look elsewhere.

Moderately-owned Pick: Jon Rahm - Rahm was very popular last week and should be again. With such a huge prize purse, there's no reason to hold back if you think this is the spot to deploy him. He's still on top of his game and he's played well enough here to make me think he could win. It will be interesting to see what those who didn't take him this past week do here. Do they wait for a major now?

Lightly-owned Pick: Adam Scott - Can you use Scott in a spot like this? No, seriously, I'm asking you. Okay, so here's the debate with these elevated events -- can you go well below the top 25 in any of them? Scott is definitely a risky pick with so much cash at stake, but he had a decent finish in Hawaii and he has fared well in this event, winning it in 2020 and finishing top-10 in half of his 14 starts.

Buyer Beware: Patrick Cantlay - Noticeably absent from the fun this past week was Cantlay, who missed the cut and wasn't around for the weekend. It's not often wise to fade Cantlay, but this might be a spot to stay away. His form isn't great  and he has just one top-10 in seven appearances here. He does have a handful of top-20s, but the high-end finishes are lacking.

This Week: Max Homa - I'm not a fan of using a golfer that I know will be very popular, but I'm in a pretty good spot in the standings, so I feel like I can just pick the guy who I think will do best. In Homa's case, the value is at its peak because of his form, his track record and the success he has had in his home state. Homa is really the perfect play, as you aren't using him at a major and you want to find a spot to use him out west.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Max Homa ($11,300)
Middle Range: Viktor Hovland ($10,800)
Lower Range: Kurt Kitayama ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Adam Scott - It's hard to ignore the guy who has made 13 of 14 cuts here. Sure, he's not the same player he was a decade ago, but his results here have not declined much -- if any -- over the past 10 years. Scott has not missed a cut here since 2010, and in his nine starts since he landed outside the top 50 just once.

Previous Results