Weekly Preview: Tournament of Champions

Sentry Tournament of Champions

Plantation Course
Kapalua, HI

With 2020 in the books, the PGA Tour heads to Hawaii to pick up where it left off. We're technically still in the 2020-2021 season, but I think it's safe to say we would no longer like to reference 2020. Will 2021 look much different than last year? Hopefully, but it might take a while. 

The COVID-19 pandemic won't catch anyone by surprise like it did last March, but caution must still be practiced, and calls for more fans at events will hopefully fall on deaf ears. The PGA Tour managed to complete nearly its entire season this past year, but of course, the pandemic continues. Besides, I think we've all adjusted to not having fans on site. If we need to wait another six months, we'll be fine. 

As for this week, it's the annual event honoring champions -- and this year, Tour Championship participants as well. We have all kinds of course history to review, but this is the first event back from the longest break of the PGA Tour season, so rust will certainly be a factor.

LAST YEAR

Justin Thomas shot a final-round 69 and beat out Xander Schauffele and Patrick Reed in a playoff.

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (7-1)

Johnson had an outstanding 2020, picking up his second major championship and several other wins. It will be interesting to see if he maintains his momentum or falls back to earth a bit. This week will not tell us much about the rest of the year, but it might provide a peak into his mindset. If he is able to pick up where he left off, it will be full steam ahead. Johnson has won this event twice and has posted eight top-10 finishes in 10 starts here.

Justin Thomas (8-1)

Thomas is also coming off a stellar campaign, which unsurprisingly is a trend among this week's favorites. The field is loaded, but there is still separation among the elite golfers and those that are merely really good. Thomas has won this event twice, but his record here is a bit scattered. He has played well more often than not, but he does have a pair of back-half finishes in this event. 

Jon Rahm (8-1)

Rahm had a great 2020, but he failed to capture that elusive first major. The good news is, even though it feels like he's been around for a decade, he's only 26 and there's plenty of time to win one before the pressure cranks up. Rahm looks like a sound option this week, but there's not much value at this price. He has three starts here and his best finish was a runner-up in 2018.

THE NEXT TIER

Xander Schauffele (10-1)

Schauffele remains a media darling, as everyone who writes or Tweets about golf expects him to be the next big thing. There's ample reason to believe that good things are ahead for Schauffele, but if he's to join to the elite group, he has some work to do. As for this week, Schauffele played extremely well here the past two years and there's no reason to think that will change.

Bryson DeChambeau (12-1)

DeChambeau didn't come out of nowhere last season by any means, but he was certainly reborn as a new golfer after the COVID-19 hiatus. At first his physique gained the most attention, but soon after, his game took all the attention. DeChambeau has not done much on this course -- his best showing was a solo 7th in 2019 -- but his game has changed quite a bit over the past 12 months.

Patrick Reed (18-1)

Though he's not a favorite of fans nor players, Reed continues to produce, and he's not going away anytime soon. With a field this small, it's tough to find much value, but right about this point is where it starts to present itself. Reed has six starts in this tournament, and four of those resulted in a T6 or better. He won it in 2015 and finished runner-up in both 2016 and 2020.

LONG SHOTS

Scottie Scheffler (35-1)

I'm still not sure if all the hype surrounding Scheffler is deserved, as expectations seem to outweigh performance, but with that said, he was very productive this past year. Can he take the next step and become a reliable option on a weekly basis? I guess we'll find out, but one thing is certain, the guy has potential and that's exactly what you are looking for in this category.

Cameron Champ (66-1)

Speaking of potential, perhaps no one on the PGA Tour has more than Champ. Maybe we are all being fooled by his prodigious drives, but it feels like Champ could be an elite golfer at some point in the near future. Then again, maybe it's the fact he picked up a win in each of his first two seasons on Tour. Whatever the case, when a golfer with a ton of distance gets the rest of his game in gear he's dangerous. At 66-1, it might be worth betting that Champ gets it going on the greens.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Patrick Reed - It's too early to burn an elite-level golfer like DJ or JT, but Reed is in the sweet spot for an event like this. There are spots to use Reed over the next several months, but he won't often he better than 18-1 to win. Reed's track record here also provides some comfort that he'll show up, even if he doesn't win.

Moderately-owned Pick: Xander Schauffele - Schauffele is someone that I would prefer waiting on, but if you are looking to get off to a good start, he's certainly a strong option. Though he has not captured e a major, Schauffele is generally reliable in spots like this, against strong fields at a normal Tour stop.

Lightly-owned Pick: Cameron Champ - It's hard to tell who most OAD players will be on this week, but it's safe to say that Champ should be lightly-owned. Champ is a normally a risky play, as he's not the most consistent golfers, but what's the worst that can happen? He gets a paycheck for finishing four rounds, so there's really no risk.

Buyer Beware: Billy Horschel - In all honesty, this section should contain the names of any and all elite players, as it's just not wise to burn a stud this early. However, since we are locked into just one name, I'll go with Horschel, who is one of only a few guys with a poor track record at this event. Horschel has teed it up four times here and did not crack the top 10.

Last Week: Harris English - T5 - $266,400

Season Total: $1,288,888

This Week: Patrick Reed - I usually take a flyer in this event with everyone leaving with some money, but Reed provides a lot of value, and there's not necessarily a spot on the schedule where I feel I have to use him. Reed has a good chance to win this week, and a top-10 feels like his floor, which is always a good thing.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Patrick Reed ($11,200)
Middle Range: Collin Morikawa ($10,100)
Lower Range: Cameron Champ ($8,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Brian Gay - WD

Streak: 2

This week: N/A