This article is part of our FanDuel NHL series.
SLATE PREVIEW
This is the moment of truth for the Leafs. Win and they'll advance to the second round, exacting revenge on the team that ousted them last season and vanquishing whatever demons that had been roiling around in their heads.
The Knights can likewise advance if they can finish off the banged-up Jets. Mark Scheifele has already been ruled out and Nikolaj Ehlers is a game-time decision. With Josh Morrissey already out for the rest of the series, that's three of the Jets' best players out of the lineup. They were a popular pick to upset the Knights entering the series, and now they'll need to win three straight to advance.
The Rangers won Games 1 and 2 convincingly and started to coast, allowing the Devils to tie the series up. Entering Thursday's matchups, the winner of Game 5 after a 2-2 tie in the series has advanced to the second round nearly 80 percent of the time. The Devils clinched home-ice advantage during the season and that alone may end up giving them the edge.
GOALIES
Laurent Brossoit, VGK vs. WPG ($8,300): The Knights' goalies come at a premium but it's understandable. They have a commanding lead in the series and the Jets limped into the playoffs and now without two of their top-six forwards and top defenseman. After a series-opening loss, Brossoit has won three straight games against his former team and played fantastic in two of those three wins. With the Knights also getting home-ice advantage, the ice tilts heavily in their favor.
Igor Shesterkin, NYR at NJ ($7,600): It's not that Shesterkin has been bad; the team in front of him just hasn't been very good. Shesterkin has not allowed more than two goals in any game this series, and being available at a lower salary than expected Devils starter Akira Schmid makes this difficult to pass up. The Rangers were one of the best road teams during the season (24-9-8) and after being publicly berated by their coach should follow up with a much better performance in Game 5.
VALUE PLAYS
Vladislav Namestnikov, WPG at VGK ($3,700): David Gustafsson is the one lining up between Kyle Connor and Blake Wheeler, but he's averaging less than 10 minutes per game. Perhaps that will change with Scheifele and Pierre-Luc Dubois, who missed practice for undisclosed reasons, out of the lineup, but the better play is Namestnikov, who plays more minutes and has scored two points already in the series.
Matthew Knies, TOR vs. TB ($3,600): Knies will not come out of the lineup even with Michael Bunting returning from a suspension, that much is sure. Sheldon Keefe has praised Knies publicly, and he'll likely stay on a line with John Tavares and Leafs' top scorer Mitch Marner.
LINE STACKS
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
Auston Matthews (C - $9,800), Calle Jarnkrok (W - $3,700), William Nylander (W - $8,000)
Matthews and Nylander have been lights-out during the series, scoring at least a point in every single game. Nylander, in particular, has been the Leafs' best player in the playoffs over the past three seasons, leading the team with 10 goals and 22 points. Jarnkrok is a sneaky value play because he's unlikely to get bumped from this line due to the chemistry he's established with Matthews, and once in a while he can pitch in with the occasional point. The ceiling isn't very high, but the Leafs offense is very good and Andrei Vasilevskiy has not been sharp in the playoffs.
DEFENSEMEN
Alex Pietrangelo, VGK vs. WPG ($6,400): Pietrangelo continues to be a work horse for the Knights, averaging over 24 minutes per game, including a two-assist performance in 34 minutes in Game 3. He consistently puts shots on net, blocks a fair amount and plays in all situations. He's the safest play for Thursday's slate with such a high floor.
Mikhail Sergachev, TB at TOR ($6,000): In short, the Lightning will be forced to lean on Sergachev a lot in a do-or-die game. The Leafs getting last change means Jon Cooper may have to play it safe and deploy Sergachev as much as he can regardless of who he's matched up against. Victor Hedman played more minutes in Game 4 and he'll be leaned on a lot as well, but Sergachev has a bit more fantasy value as the quarterback on PP1.
