This article is part of our NHL Picks series.
NHL Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks and Props for Maple Leafs at Oilers
The Toronto Maple Leafs (21-12-8) travel to meet the Edmonton Oilers (23-15-1) on Tuesday night at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alta. Puck drop is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN+.
The Leafs looked like they were piecing things together, winning four in a row, all against California teams, including a 3-0 win in Los Angeles against the Kings on Jan. 2. But the goaltending and defense has dropped off yet again, with the team going 0-2-1 in the past three games, while allowing at least four goals in each of the setbacks. It's no surprise to Leaf Nation, as this has been a team with tremendous offensive firepower, so-so defense and shoddy goaltending for years.
The Oilers head into this game on a serious roll, winning 10 consecutive games. While the past two games have been overtime wins in Detroit and Montreal, Edmonton is still finding a way to get it done, even it isn't always pretty.
In fact, quite opposite of the Leafs, the Oilers have been tremendous on defense and in the crease, allowing just five total goals in the past four games, and only 11 goals over the previous eight outings.
This is the first of two regular-season meetings. Last season, the teams split the series, with the home side winning by three goals in each battle. The favorite has cashed in five of the past seven in the series, while also covering the puck line at a 4-3 clip in that span. The winning team has scored at least four goals in each of the past four meetings, while the winning side has needed at least three goals in each of the past 10 battles in this series.
The Leafs are projected to use Martin Jones (8-4-1, 2.30 GAA, .924 SV%, 2 SO) in the crease, while the Oilers roll with the red-hot Stuart Skinner (18-9-1, 2.63 GAA, .903 SV%, 2 SO).
Jones has allowed four goals in each of the past two outings. He kicked aside 28 of the 32 shots he faced in a stunning collapse against the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday. The Leafs led 3-0, but the Avs stormed back with five unanswered goals. He also allowed four goals on 30 shots in a 4-3 OT loss at N.Y. Islanders Thursday in his previous showing. Still, despite those ugly starts, he is 4-1-1 with a 1.83 GAA and .935 SV% with 1 SO in six January starts, as he has a renaissance of sorts.
Skinner has been on one lately, winning seven consecutive starts, while allowing two or fewer goals in six of those outings. He has been even more impressive in his four January assignments, going 4-0-0 with just five goals allowed on 117 shots, good for a 1.25 GAA and .957 SV%.
With the way Skinner and the Oilers have been humming along, and the Maple Leafs have been, pun intended, leaking oil, roll with Edmonton at home.
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NHL Money Line Bets for Maple Leafs at Oilers
- Oilers ML (-150 at BetMGM)
As far as the total is concerned, we can't glean much from the past results in this series. In fact, in the past three meetings, we've had a push at most shops in two of the outings. And in the past 10 in the series, the total is split 4-4-2.
Looking to recent results, we see the Leafs have cashed the Over at a 3-1 clip in the past four games overall, while going the total has gone high in eight of the past 13 games on the road. The Over is 7-4 in the past 11 games against Western Conference opponents, too.
However, it's been all Under all the time for Edmonton lately, going 4-0 in the past four games, and 6-2 in the past eight games overall with a slight 7-5 edge in the past 12 against Eastern Conference foes.
The trends are all over the board, but if you can nail down a flat seven and take the Under, that's the way to go.
NHL Totals Bets for Penguins at Hurricanes
- Under 7 (-120 at Caesars)
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NHL Player Props for Maple Leafs at Oilers
The player props for this all-Canada battle have some interesting numbers. While we've been playing a lot of Anytime Goal Scorers, there is value to be had in some other areas. Let's delve into some other areas we've been avoiding lately.
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For the visitors, William Nylander hasn't seen a shot he doesn't like lately. He has rattled off 34 shots on goal (SOG) in seven January games. He started the month with four goals and nine points in the first four games, but he is scoreless in the past three outings. But he has kept shooting, trying to break back into the scoring column with four or more shots during the three-game point drought. He simply needs to hit four SOG to go Over here.
- William Nylander 4+ SOG (-118 at FanDuel)
When playing an Oilers game, it's easy to get lazy and just look at the props for Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl. And rightly so, as McJesus has 12 goals and 44 points in the past 23 games. That's ridiculous. But let's go the other way, and pick on a cold guy.
Evander Kane has no goals and just one assist in five games in January, and he has two goals nad only three points in the past 13 games overall. As such, playing Under on his points makes a whole lot of sense.
- Evander Kane Under 0.5 Points (-140 at BetMGM)
