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NHL Bets Tonight: Stanley Cup Final Game 7 Best Bets, Picks and Player Props
The Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers square off in a decisive Game 7 in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final on Monday night at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Fla. Puck drop is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ABC or streamed on ESPN+.
Stay up to date on the Stanley Cup odds now that the finals are here, as well as the latest NHL odds for each game of the series. Going into Game 5, the Panthers are -1200 favorites to hoist the Cup. The BetMGM bonus code now gets new players a first-bet offer worth up to $1,500, allowing them to get in on the action for the remainder of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Well, regardless of the winner of tonight's game, this will be the final NHL betting column of the 2023-24 hockey season. I just wanted to thank everybody for reading this season, and hopefully you've been able to make some money along the way. I appreciate everyone, and look forward to an even better 2024-25 NHL season. Let's get started!
The Florida Panthers won the first three games of this series, outscoring the Edmonton Oilers 11-4, including a shutout in Game 1 by Sergei Bobrovsky. The Under cashed in the first two games in Sunrise, the Oilers offense was able to manage just one goal in those two outings, and it appeared we were headed for a short series.
The Oilers had other ideas, obviously, as we're headed for the first Game 7 in a Stanley Cup Final since the St. Louis Blues defeated the Boston Bruins on the road June 12, 2019.
That Blues win was a rarity, as the home team has been victorious in seven of the past nine Game 7s in NHL history. So, there is history working against the Oilers, as they look for a second straight victory on the road, and fourth straight win overall.
And the last time, and only time, a team was down in an 0-3 series hole, only to eventually win the Stanley Cup, was in 1945. The Toronto Maple Leafs lost the first three games to the Detroit Red Wings April 6-12, 1945. Not only were they beaten, but Toronto was shut out three straight times, by a slim 4-0 margin. The Leafs came alive on offense in Game 4 at home, while staring elimination in the face, then won Game 5 on the road, won Game 6 at home, and forced a Game 7 on the road. Sound familiar?
The Oilers have outscored the Panthers 18-5 in the past three games, and many people who had conceded that Florida would eventually win their first-ever Cup are now saying the Panthers are shell-shocked, and have no chance. It's Game 7. It's at home. And anything can happen in Game 7. Is it hard to push down those feelings of doubt and concern, if you're a Florida Panthers supporter or bettor? Definitely. But these are professional athletes, and it is the biggest game of their lives. What happened in the past does not matter. What happened in black and white in 1945 doesn't matter.
It is a little concerning that Bobrovsky is 0-3-0 with a 5.06 GAA and .793 SV% in the past three games. He didn't practice Sunday, or at least he wasn't on the ice at the beginning, as head coach Paul Maurice said he wanted to get Bob back into a rhythm. Earlier in the postseason, Bobrovsky rested the day before playoff starts, but it was rather curious news over the weekend that this occurred before Game 7. It's an interesting strategy, Cotton. Let's see how it plays out.
Stuart Skinner has been unbelievable in the past three starts, all wins, of course. He is 3-0-0 with a 1.67 GAA and .942 SV%, getting the Oilers into position for their first Stanley Cup win since 1990. While Skinner wasn't even alive then, he is 25 years old, and an Edmonton native, so a win in the crease, and getting his name etched onto the Cup, would likely mean a lot more.
The Panthers continue to be more physical than the Oilers, registering 44 hits to just 21 in Game 6. Edmonton was much better at the faceoff dot last time out, though, winning 52.6% of the attempts, while shots on goal were even at 21 apiece. Neither team struck on the power play, either, as Florida was 0-for-2, and Edmonton was 0-for-3. The Oilers paid the price in front of Skinner a lot more, blocking shots at a 2-to-1 margin, with 22 for the home side, to just 11 for the Panthers.
Aleksander Barkov scored the only goal for the Panthers, and he has two goals in the past four outings, while racking up two goals and five points in this series. He has been a bright spot, even when things haven't gone Florida's way lately.
For the Oilers, Game 6 saw them play as a team, not have Connor McDavid carry the day. Warren Foegele opened the scoring, while Adam Henrique was credited with the game-winning tally with his goal to make it 2-0 early in the second period. One of the big guns, Zach Hyman, did get on the board with an even-strength goal late in the second period, with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins helping out.
Barkov sliced the lead to 3-1 early in the third period, and gave Florida a pulse, and that's how things remained before Ryan McLeod and Darnell Nurse each notched empty-net goals, putting a bow on the scoring, completing the comeback to level the series. Skinner was even credited with an assist on Nurse's ENG. But there is still a huge hurdle for the Oilers in Game 7, going on the road. Florida's crowd will bring that energy.
Edmonton last saw that in 2006, as the Oilers faced the Carolina Hurricanes at PNC Arena in Raleigh, N.C. for a Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Final. It didn't end well for the Oilers that day, but again, they didn't have the amazing momentum, and plus-13 scoring differential in the previous three games, like they have today.
We've been playing it safe for the past few games, but it's time to go all out in Game 7. This should be a low-scoring game, and we actually might need an overtime or two to decide a winner. Let's back the road team to make history, something hockey fans will talk about for generations. Move over 1945 Maple Leafs, as you're about to have some company.
NHL Moneyline Bets for Oilers at Panthers
- Oilers ML (-108 at DraftKings)
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In the past nine Game 7s in Stanley Cup Final history, we have seen the Under cash. And, in the past 15 Game 7s in Stanley Cup history, we have had five or fewer goals.
The last time we had more than five goals in a decisive Game 7 was April 23, 1950, when Phil Babando delighted the home crowd in Detroit with a game-winning goal in double-overtime to stun the New York Rangers 4-3. Yeah, it's been a while.
The Over has cashed in four consecutive games in this series, with an average of 7.5 goals per game. And we had just 4.0 goals per game in the first two outings. That's unusual, as defense and goaltending usually tighten up as we get deeper into a series, and familiarity breeds contempt.
Anyway, based on the historical trends of Game 7, you don't dare bet the Over. Some shops are offering a flat five, and others have Under 5.5 available. Go with the latter, just to be on the safe side, although you'll have to risk more juice to get it.
NHL Totals Bets for Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers
- Under 5.5 (-150 at Caesars)
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NHL Player Props for Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers
As far as the NHL player props for Game 7, we're actually going to do two player props, and one team prop.
In this series, scoring has started slow in all but one game. We have had exactly one first-period goal in five of the first games of this series. The lone exception was Edmonton's 3-1 outburst in the first 20 minutes of the Game 4 rout. Go low on the first-period total line, and feel confidently in doing so.
- Under 1.5 Total Goals - First Period (-138 at FanDuel)
As far as the player props are concerned, somebody is going to score, but goals should be at a premium. It's best to go on the conservative side and look to the Player to Record 1+ Points. There are plenty of values on both sides.
For the Panthers, Barkov has been a beacon of light in the good times, and the not so good times. He should be able to record at least one point, whether it's a goal or an assist, in this decisive Game 7 on home ice. He always seems to deliver when it matters most.
- Aleksander Barkov To Record 1+ Points (-154 at FanDuel)
For the home side, Sam Bennett had a disastrous Game 6. He was not only blanked, but he had a minus-4 rating, and just one shot on goal. On home ice, he has no goals, three assists and a plus-4 rating in three games in this series, posting an assist in each game at Amerant Bank Arena in this series. At plus-money, he is a good value.
- Sam Bennett To Record 1+ Points (+112 at FanDuel)
Looking to the visitors, Stuart Skinner is going to be called upon to stay hot, but I don't think he is going to face a lot of rubber. The Total Saves prop for 60 minutes is rather high at 26.5. He was forced to make 29 saves in Game 5, and 32 saves in Game 4, but that can be discounted since a lot of those shots came with the game out of hand, and Florida just desperately throwing the puck at the net.
He had made 25 or fewer saves in four of the six games, and 20 or fewer saves in three of the contests.
- Stuart Skinner Under 26.5 Saves (-122 at FanDuel)
BONUS – 3-Leg Same-Game Parlay +324 (at FanDuel)
- Oilers ML (-110)
- Under 5.5 Goals (-158)
- First Period - Under 1.5 Goals (-138)
BONUS – 2-Leg Panthers Player Prop Same-Game Parlay +191 (at FanDuel)
- Aleksander Barkov To Record 1+ Points (-154)
- Sam Bennett To Record 1+ Points (+112)
Let's get it!
