KBO: Quick Thoughts While Waiting for Lineups

The title to this article is pretty self-explanatory. I am not a DFS writer, but I have been paying attention to the KBO and playing every night on DraftKings, so I thought I'd share a few thoughts. If you're looking for a full DFS breakdown, I highly recommend Erik Halterman's daily DFS KBO Cheatsheet. Instead, I'm turning this into a dreaded "Notes" column.

• Much has been made about the run scoring environment so far - scoring is indeed up, and power is up over 2019. Did the KBO return to the 2017-18 baseball, or something between those power-laden years and last year's less lively ball? It's certainly possible. First, the numbers (via Baseball-Reference.com):

  2018 - 5.55 R/G, .286 BA, 1.22 HR/G, 7.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
  2019 - 4.55 R/G, .267 BA, 0.70 HR/G, 6.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
  2020 - 5.43 R/G, .272 BA, 1.13 HR/G, 6.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9

  Those numbers for 2020 only include games covering the first week - results from Tuesday's action don't register yet. So that encompasses five games for six of the teams in the league, and six games for the remaining four teams. I think it's appropriate to issue any sort of "small sample" argument that you'd like.

  Another big factor is the truncated spring training that the KBO had after getting back to work. Each team played only seven spring training games against other teams, though that doesn't include intersquad scrimmages. While I'm inclined to believe that there could be some changes with the ball, let's not be too hasty with our conspiracy theories just yet.

• One of the best nuggets of advice I can remember for fantasy is to account for a team's bullpen when building your lineup - both in terms of which teams to attack, and which starters to use. To wit, look at the KT Wiz. For the second start in a row, Odrisamer Despaigne had a win blown by the bullpen, this time in spectacular fashion by Lee Dae-eun. Lee had 17 saves last season while only blowing one, but maybe we should have been more wary of him anyhow? He had a 1.49 WHIP last year, fueled by 39 walks his 86 innings pitched, and he also gave up 10 homers in a year when power was down. It'll be interesting to see if KT makes a change, perhaps with someone like Ju Kwon, who was much better last year in a set-up capacity and hasn't allowed a run in five innings so far this year. 

  But the overall point is that a number of bullpens have had shocking meltdowns so far, and that can be to our benefit. Even the defending champ, Doosan, is not immune to that, having blown a huge lead Sunday against KT, only to finally rally in the 11th inning to win.

• The KBO resembles some of the retro drafts that I've played in over the last month - there's more contact, less power generally, and positional scarcity is a real thing, and not just at catcher. First base, however, is absolutely loaded. My favorite player so far might Roberto Ramos with the LG Twins. He raked last year at Triple-A Albuquerque in the Rockies system, hitting .309/.400/.580 with 30 homers and 105 RBI. Yet somehow he wasn't even given a September call-up, which is so Rockies of them, even though they did send him to the Arizona Fall League. In his first six games he's hitting .435/.500/.913, and yet he's still silly cheap on Draft Kings at $2,900. I get that there are other great first basemen to use, but he's basically a free square.
• A nice opportunity for potential profit is to use established starting pitchers on their second start after they struggled the first time. It might be a stretch to say Dan Straily struggled in his first outing against KT (5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3BB, 4K), but it wasn't a level of dominance that many were expecting. But that dominance rally came through in his next outing against the SK Wyverns, when he threw seven shutout innings, striking out 11. Remember that most of the "foreign" pitchers had less time to ramp back up to speed with this restart to the league. If they went back home from Korea after the shutdown of the league, they had to sit in quarantine for 14 days upon their return. As much as they might have been throwing at home, certainly they were a little behind coming back. I think that there's a buying opportunity for Tyler Wilson, and especially Casey Kelly, who really ran unlucky in his first start.
• That leads to a general overall point - water typically finds its level. This is a lesson we need to re-learn each year with MLB, and it should be no different here in the KBO. Anomalies happen, to be sure, but how many times do we see an established pitcher struggle in April only to rally later in the season?
• I really appreciate ESPN showing KBO games. My one quibble with their coverage is that they don't focus enough on the games themselves. I like some of the guests that they bring on, but I think their focus has been too heavy on those guests at the expense of calling the game. Too many key moments have gone unmentioned or glossed over because they're in the middle of asking their guest a question. I know they're in an extraordinarily difficult spot, so it's just a quibble - but I'd like more focus on the game itself.