DraftKings MMA: UFC 283 DFS Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC 283 DFS Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

UFC 283  takes place Saturday in Rio de Janeiro, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $500k UFC 283 Special with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...

Main Event - Light Heavyweight Championship

Glover Teixeira (33-8-0) v. Jamahal Hill (11-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Teixeira ($7,800), Hill ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Teixeira (+110), Hill (-130)
Odds to Finish: -650

To recap: Teixiera, who lost his title to Jiri Prochazka last June, was scheduled for a rematch against the champion at the company's most recent pay-per-view in mid-December. Prozchaka got hurt, forfeited the title, and Glover declined the chance to fight Magomed Ankalaev on short notice. Ankalaev ended up fighting Jan Blachowicz to a majority draw (even though most everyone thought Magomed deserved to win), infuriating UFC President Dana White in the process and leading to this fight for the same belt, between two totally different competitors. Got that? 

In many ways, it's a best-case scenario for Teixiera. He decided he didn't want to fight Ankalaev, which is understandable give Glover's advanced age and the fact he isn't going to have many more kicks at the can. He only has to sit on the sidelines an additional month and still gets his title shot. Teixiera would have almost certainly been looking at another half a year at least had Ankalaev or Blachowicz emerged with the title, and even then it's no guarantee he would have gotten the opportunity.  

Of course, the biggest winner in all this is Hill. Jamahal is 5-1 (1NC) in his first seven UFC bouts and is fresh off a three-fight winning streak, all via knockout, over Thiago Santos, Johnny Walker and Jimmy Crute. The UFC booked Hill to fight Anthony Smith in a main event scheduled for this coming March. When that bout got cancelled and he got the title shot here, Hill wisely asked the veteran Smith to help him train for the Teixiera fight, and Anthony, ever the professional, agreed.

Teixeira attempted 17 takedowns in the Prochazka loss, landing five of them. That resulted in 9:47 worth of control time and would have won Glover the bout had he not been submitted late. Teixeira's durability is ridiculous, particularly for a man that was 42 years of age then and is 43 years of age now. If Hill puts the same type of beating on Teixiera that Jiri did, I'm not sure Glover can survive the way he did then, but Teixeira probably deserves the benefit of the doubt until we see otherwise.

A prolonged striking battle is going to favor Hill in a major way. Most everything else should favor Glover. I'm seriously worried Hill could overwhelm Teixeira on the feet in short order, but if Glover can get to his wrestling in multiple rounds, he has a real chance to win this fight.

Both the DK salaries and Vegas odds of both men seem correct. Hill is younger, has more power and is considerably more athletic, while Glover has the experience edge and more ways to win. 

I'm going with Teixeira in a minor upset, but this is a true pick 'em. I don't have a strong feeling here one way or another. It should be a great fight.

THE PICK: Teixeira

Co-Main Event - UFC Flyweight Championship

(C) Deiveson Figueiredo (21-2-1) v. (IC) Brandon Moreno (20-6-2)
DK Salaries: Figueiredo ($8,200), Moreno ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Figueiredo (-110), Moreno (-110)
Odds to Finish: +100

This will be the fourth -- and likely final -- meeting between these two. Their first fight in December 2020 ended in a majority draw. Moreno win via submission in June 2021 before Figueiredo got his revenge in January 2020 with a unanimous decision win of his own in another razor-thin bout.

Each of the prior three bouts have been all over the place, and I'm honestly not sure how much stock to put into what we have seen in the past. It seems like these two start fresh every single time they step into the Octagon against each other. 

Figueiredo hasn't fought anyone other than Moreno in well over two years. There's no question the third fight was his most effective. He knocked the uber-tough Moreno down on three separate occasions, including twice in Round 3 alone. Deiveson enters with a significant power edge, and even the slightest dip in durability for Brandon could result in this fight ending quickly. It still seems unlikely to happen given what we have seen in the past.

Moreno's most recent fight was, believe it or not, was not against Figueiredo. He knocked out Kai Kara-France in an interim title bout in late-July. It was the second time Moreno beat Kara-France, first winning via unanimous decision in December 2019.

It's abundantly clear I was too low on Moreno from the very start. His striking has improved over the years, he can certainly wrestle when needed and his durability has been legendary. He's more volume-over-power on the feet, but Brandon's ability to absorb punishment has allowed him to hang around until he can generate offense of his own.

Moreno has the edge in cardio, but most everything else is in Figueiredo's favor. That's been the case since the first time these two met and it hasn't stopped Brandon from being extremely competitive each and every time out, so take that for what you will. 

I'm nearly positive I picked the Brazilian in each of their first three fights and I see no reason to switch it up now. 

I think Figueiredo has a considerable edge in terms of his physical gifts. Betting against Moreno is a risky move considering how much he has improved and his all-world durability, but this seems like a real value spot for Deiveison. A stack isn't the worst idea in the world if you're hoping for a long-shot payout on DK. 

THE PICK: Figueiredo 


Gilbert Burns (20-5-0) v. Neil Magny (27-10-0)
DK Salaries: Burns ($9,300), Magny ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Burns (-435), Magny (+350)
Odds to Finish: -135

Burns' 1-2 record in his last three bouts dating back to February 2021 appears ugly on the surface, but the two setbacks came against long-time champion Kamaru Usman and top contender Khamzat Chimaev, so it would be foolish to write Gilbert off. He had his moments in each fight, particuarly early on against Usman. Burns might not be on the same level as the top guys in the division, but he's not far off. This is a must-win for him.

Magny continues to do his thing, winning far more often than he loses, although typically struggling when tasked with facing top-flight competition. Neil bounced back from a submission loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov last June to pick a submission win of his own over Daniel Rodriguez in November. Magny is one of the best in the sport at making adjustments on a fight-by-fight basis and tailoring his game plan to whomever he is fighting.

Magny's biggest advantage in this fight will be his size. Burns is extremely powerful and an elite mat specialist, but Neil is going to enter with a four-inch edge in height and a monumental nine-inch edge in reach. Magny would be smart to try to keep this fight at distance, throw plenty of kicks, and do whatever is necessary to remain upright.

Neil averages 2.43 takedowns per 15 minutes. Burns only defends the takedown at a woeful 47-percent clip, but even if Magny is able to get his opponent to the ground, Gilbert is about the last guy in the division you want to be rolling around on the mat with. 

I like Magny and have for a long time. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he is able to make this competitive, which would be something in it's own right considering how large of an underdog he is. That said, this is an easy pick. 

I don't hate the idea of using Neil as a DK underdog. It's going to be quite a while, if ever, you get him so cheap, but Burns, with his wrestling, ground game and upper-body strength, should be able to neutralize Magny's greatest attributes.


Women's Flyweight

Lauren Murphy (16-5-0) v. Jessica Andrade (23-9-0)
DK Salaries: Murphy ($6,800), Andrade ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Murphy (+380), Andrade (-475)
Odds to Finish: -120

Now 39 years of age, Murphy is 6-1 in her past seven fights dating back to August 2019, with a unanimous decision win over Miesha Tate last July her most recent triumph. This is almost certainly Murphy's high-water mark, but it's been a remarkable run for a fighter that lost four of her first six bouts with the company and doesn't have a single above-average trait in her offensive arsenal.

Andrade has bounced back and forth between strawweight and flyweight in recent years. He's had her most success at 115 pounds where she was the former champion, but Andrade is plenty strong enough to compete in the higher weight class despite lacking ideal size for the division. She's going to be giving up four inches in height and five inches in reach to Murphy, but should have a significant edge most everywhere else.

Murphy's skill set is one that typically ages poorly. She has very little power and doesn't have the ability to consistently generate offense. She is very tough, durable and determined, but that only gets you so far. 

Andrade, on the other hand, has fought four former UFC champions (Valentina Shevchenko, Rose Namajunas, Zhang Weili, Joanna Jedrzejczyk). Although she's had most of her success at strawweight, Andrade is plenty strong enough to compete effectively at 125 pounds.

Best I can tell, Murphy's only chance of winning this fight is to stay at distance and attempt to pick  Andrade apart on the feet. It sounds great in theory, but Andrade hits twice as hard and is a much better grappler. If Lauren appears to be gaining momentum on the feet, I expect Jessica to shoot for takedowns. 

Another easy pick. Unlike the previous bout, I have zero interest in Murphy as an underdog play.

THE PICK: Andrade

Light Heavyweight

Paul Craig (16-5-1) v. Johnny Walker (19-7-0)
DK Salaries: Craig ($7,500), Walker ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Craig (+160), Walker (-190)
Odds to Finish: -650

If you're interested in a bout between two fighters with completely different styles, this is the fight for you.

Craig had a six-fight unbeaten streak (5-0-1) snapped with a unanimous decision defeat to Volkan Oezdemir last July. Craig's inability to defeat a one-dimensional brawler such as Volkan isn't a great sign, but he built up plenty of equity with his strong run prior to the defeat.

Walker almost certainly saved his job with a first-round submission win over Ion Cutelaba last Spetember. He had lost four of five prior and looked nothing like the guy that began his UFC run with three-straight first-round knockout wins.

Unlike most bigger fighters, Craig does virtually all of his best work on the mat. He has 13 career wins via submission and three via knockout. He does not have a decision win. Oddly enough, Craig knocked out Hill in June 2021, so he does have power, but a prolonged striking battle clearly favors Walker.

Walker have 15 wins via knockout and three via submission. His durability is a massive question mark and his fight IQ is questionable, but the Brazilian has high-end physical gifts if he fights smart enough to get to them.

This fight sets up poorly for Craig. Sure, Walker could easily make a mistake, and Paul has proven he can take advantage in those situations, but Johnny's massive edge in the power department is a huge concern. We just saw Craig struggle against Oezdemir, and Walker is far more dangerous than he. 

Craig has a shot here simply because Walker is wildly inconsistent, has durability issues and is prone to in-fight mistakes, but I'd bet against him pulling the upset.

THE PICK: Walker

Other Bouts

Light Heavyweight
Mauricio Rua (27-13-1) v. Ihor Potieria (19-3-0)
DK Salaries: Rua ($7,300), Potieria ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Rua (+170), Potieria (-200)
Odds to Finish: -265
THE PICK: Potieria

Gregory Rodrigues (13-4-0) v. Brunno Ferreira (9-0-0)
DK Salaries: Rodrigues ($9,100), Ferreira ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Rodrigues (-345), Ferreira (+285)
Odds to Finish: -500
THE PICK: Rodrigues

Thiago Moises (16-6-0) v. Melquizael Costa (19-5-0)
DK Salaries: Moises ($9,000), Costa ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Moises (-360), Costa (+295)
Odds to Finish: -180
THE PICK: Moises

Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-7-0) v. Jailton Almeida (17-2-0)
DK Salaries: Abdurakhimov ($6,500), Almeida ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Abdurakhimov (+650), Almeida (-950)
Odds to Finish: -1000
THE PICK: Almeida

Gabriel Bonfim (13-0-0) v. Mounir Lazzez (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Bonfim ($8,800), Lazzez ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Bonfim (-175), Lazzez (+150)
Odds to Finish: -205
THE PICK: Bonfim

Ismael Bonfim (18-3-0) v. Terrance McKinney (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: Bonfim ($7,700), McKinney ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Bonfim (+105), McKinney (-125)
Odds to Finish: -635
THE PICK: McKinney

Luan Lacerda (12-1-0) v. Cody Stamann (20-5-1)
DK Salaries: Lacerda ($7,000), Stamann ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Lacerda (+285), Stamann (-345)
Odds to Finish: +165
THE PICK: Stamann

Warlley Alves (15-5-0) v. Nicolas Dalby (20-4-1, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Alves ($8,300), Dalby ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Alves (-120), Dalby (+100)
Odds to Finish: -135

Women's Featherweight
Josiane Nunes (9-1-0) v. Zarah Fairn (6-4-0)
DK Salaries: Nunes ($9,500), Fairn ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Nunes (-520), Fairn (+410)
Odds to Finish: -170

Saimon Oliveira (18-4-0) v. Daniel Marcos (13-0-0)
DK Salaries: Oliveira ($8,600), Marcos ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Oliveira (-155), Marcos (+130)
Odds to Finish: -160
THE PICK: Marcos

Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 283 with more MMA betting content.

DraftKings MMA Scoring

Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
  • A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
  • Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
  • A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
  • A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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