This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 291 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $750k UFC 291 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Lightweight - "BMF" Championship
Dustin Poirier (29-7-0, 1NC) v. Justin Gaethje (24-4-0)
DK Salaries: Poirier ($8,300), Gaethje ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Poirier (-145), Gaethje (+125)
Odds to Finish: -250
These two men are so popular that they can absolutely headline a successful pay-per-view for the company despite the fact there is no real championship up for grabs. Poirier and Gaethje fought in April 2018, a fight Poirier won via early Round 4 knockout. The bout was named Fight of the Year by multiple publications. Buckle up.
Poirier has won four of six dating back to September 2019. Two of those wins came over Conor McGregor, while the other two were against Michael Chandler and Dan Hooker. Unfortunately for "The Diamond," the two defeats came in title fights against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. Dustin is an elite lightweight, but there has consistently proven to be a gap between he and the he and the very best in the division.
Gaethje finds himself in a remarkably similar situation: 2-2 in his past four fights. He defeated Chandler and Rafael Fiziev, while falling to Nurmagomedov and Oliveira in title fights. I will say that Justin's performance in his most recent bout with Fiziev was highly encouraging. Facing a high-end striker with excellent stopping power, Gaethje was the aggressor in a back-and-forth, stand-up brawl. It was a fight most observers -- myself included -- thought he would lose.
The activity of Poirier was the difference in the first fight. He attempted 357 total strikes compared to just 213 from Gaethje. In terms of total strikes landed, Dustin had a 179-116 advantage. Poirier also failed on all five of his takedown attempts, the only five of the fight.
We have such a large sample size on these two guys that we aren't going to get any surprises. I expect another wild brawl. It's worth noting that Gaethje has fought considerably smarter of late. He's picking his spots, as opposed foolishly rushing with his head exposed.
It essentially all boils down to which man's durability you trust more. Dustin was in all sorts of trouble in his recent Chandler fight before Michael gassed out, and he took advantage in Round 2. Both men have shown an insane ability to fight through difficult spots and still emerge victorious.
The end result of the first fight means nothing to me. As crazy as it sounds, I actually like this new, patient Gaethje much more than the old wild brawler. Now, Justin can't allow Poirier to fire off nearly 150 more total strikes than him like he did the first time around, but I'm certain he and his team will be aware of that.
From a DK standpoint, this is one of the VERY rare instances in which a stack is in play. I'm almost always against it, but a bunch of people are going to do it, and these two have shown the durability and output to make it a somewhat feasible play.
All that said, I feel the value is on the Gaethje side. I don't feel great about it, but I view this as a pick 'em, and I think I slightly trust Justin's durability a bit more at this stage. If he can remain upright like he did the first time around, I like his chances.
UFC 291 PICK: Gaethje
Co-Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz (29-9-1) v. Alex Pereira (7-2-0)
DK Salaries: Blachowicz ($8,200), Pereira ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Blachowicz (-120), Pereira (-110)
Odds to Finish: -265
Jamahal Hill recently forfeited the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship after sustaining an injury, but this fight will NOT be for the title, because that would make too much sense. It will also mark Pereira's UFC debut at light heavyweight after previously competing at middleweight.
Pereira has all of nine professional fights under his belt. He famously knocked out former kickboxing foe Israel Adesanya for the UFC Middleweight Championship last November, only to be knocked out by Adesanya this past April, dropping his belt in the process. The Brazilian is a massive human being and built like a tank. He's two inches taller than Blachowicz and will have an inch edge in reach. This move up to light heavyweight may or may not work, but it won't be because Pereira is undersized.
Now 40 years of age, Blachowicz continues to go about his business. He's 6-1-1 in his past eight, with the most recent bout being a split draw against Magomed Ankalaev last October. The result was a massive coup for Blachowicz, as the fight was for the then-vacant 205-pound belt, and it was abundantly clear he deserved to lose. The stroke of good luck puts Jan right back in title contention if he can get past Pereira.
Adesanya lost to Blachowicz when they fought because Jan was simply too big. He was able to out-muscle him at the point of attack -- something I don't think he will be able to do with Pereira. That said, Blachowicz is definitely the better all-around fighter. He's the better wrestler and offers much more in the submission game. He should be trying to get this fight to the mat at all costs.
Alex has never been taken down in the UFC, and Jan is averaging less than a takedown per 15 minutes (0.97). So, while it sounds great on paper, Blachowicz grinding Alex to the mat for three rounds is unlikely.
I had to double check this because I didn't believe it at first, but Blachowicz has been knocked out just once in 19 UFC bouts. Getting into a stand-up war with Periera is a recipe for disaster, but Jan's history of durability is a point in his favor.
Ultimately, I believe in Alex's power. We've seen Jan get clipped repeatedly in the past and battle through, but taking shots from Pereira is a different animal entirely.
UFC 291 PICK: Pereira
Welterweight
Stephen Thompson (17-6-1) v. Michel Pereira (28-11-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Thompson ($8,800), Pereira ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Thompson (-170), Pereira (+145)
Odds to Finish: +115
This fight was originally scheduled to be the featured prelim before the UFC did some reshuffling and shipped Paulo Costa and Ikram Aliskerov -- who were due to fight each other on the main card -- off to different events to face other opposition.
Now 40 years of age, Thompson rebounded from back-to-back unanimous decision losses to Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns to stop Kevin Holland last December. Wonderboy keeps himself in excellent shape and his kickboxing skills remain elite, so while he may not be a threat to the top contenders at 170 pounds (like Muhammad and Burns), he should continue to have plenty of success against the guys a tier or so down (like Pereira).
Pereira enters having won five in a row, most recently a split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio in May 2022. Michel was a heavy-handed knockout artist prior to his UFC arrival, but that power hasn't carried over at the highest level. His secondary skills have long been underrated, however. Pereira has no real history of defeating better competition, so I'm not sure what his realistic ceiling is, but he's intriguing.
As has been the case since the beginning of time, engaging Thompson in a kickboxing match is a recipe for potential disaster. He's going to outpoint most everyone in such a scenario, especially in a fight scheduled for three rounds.
Pereira is a deceptively good wrestler. He averages 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes, and most importantly, lands 55 percent of his attempts. Thompson's takedown defense is up and down. He's been taken down at least twice in three straight fights, but prior to that, hadn't been forced to the mat in his prior five bouts.
Everything, from the DK salaries to the Vegas odds, seems correct here. Pereira has a theoretical path to victory because he's a big strong guy with the ability to pin Thompson to the mat for long stretches at a time, but I think it's more likely Wonderboy lands enough volume on the feet, at least for two rounds, to earn a decision.
Maybe I'd feel differently if Michel had displayed any stopping power during his UFC run, but he hasn't.
UFC 291 PICK: Thompson
Lightweight
Tony Ferguson (26-8-0) v. Bobby Green (29-14-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Ferguson ($6,700), Green ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Ferguson (+285), Green (-375)
Odds to Finish: -110
As much as it pains me to say it, I think Ferguson is totally done. He's had a great career and improved considerably as he's aged, but he's now 39 years old and enters having lost five straight dating back to May 2020. Now, it's important to note the defeats came against Nate Diaz, Michael Chandler, Beneil Dariush, Charles Oliveira and Gaethje, but the guy we've seen the past three-plus years isn't going to be beating anyone of note.
Green mentioned retiring following his most recent fight against Jared Gordon this past April, when an accidental clash of hands late in Round 1 left Green unable to continue and the bout was ruled a no contest. There's no way "King" could go out like that, so we'll see him at least once more here. Green is 2-4 (1NC) in his last seven, so while he's been considerably better than Ferguson, he's not setting the world on fire.
This certainly seems like a poor matchup for the "new" Ferguson. And by the "new" Ferguson, I mean the guy that's been struggling his past six fights. Tony was once one of the most durable and highly innovative offensive minds in the game. Now, he displays zero footwork and struggles to get his head off the center line when his opposition sends fire his way. Say what you want about Green, but he still has exceptionally fast hands at age 36. I think he's going to be able to overwhelm Ferguson in the stand-up.
Both of these guys have been around forever, but this is a weird fight. I don't think you can back Tony against anyone at this point, but I'm certainly not rushing to back Green given his massive salary.
I ..... think (?) ..... I prefer Ferguson given the salary gap between the two, but I think that's more a case of refusing to use Green at such a high cost.
I'm definitely taking Green to win, though. He has way too much hand speed for this version of Ferguson to consistently evade the combinations that will be coming his way. I hope I'm wrong because there are still some theoretical low-key-intriguing fights for Tony, but my guess is that he's handed his walking papers after a sixth straight defeat.
UFC 291 PICK: Green
Welterweight
Michael Chiesa (18-6-0) v. Kevin Holland (24-9-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Chiesa ($7,800), Holland ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Chiesa (+125), Holland (-145)
Odds to Finish: -250
Set to turn 36 years of age this coming December and the loser of back-to-back fights (Sean Brady, Vicente Luque), this is last call for Chiesa. The former winner of Season 15 of The Ultimate Fighter, Chiesa has a ton of impressive wins on his resume (Neil Magny, Rafael dos Anjos, Carlos Condit, Beneil Dariush) but has never been able to get to that next level that would put him in serious line for a title shot.
Holland suffered ugly back-to-back stoppage losses to Stephen Thompson and Khamzat Chimaev before rebounding with a knockout win over Santiago Ponzinibbio this past April. Holland was the undisputed MVP of the UFC's COVID-19 era, but he's always struggled against better opposition. Whether or not Chiesa falls into that category at this stage of his career is up for debate.
It's rare that Chiesa enters as the smaller fighter, but he's giving up two inches in height and a whopping six inches in reach to Holland. Both numbers are a problem considering the massive edge Kevin projects to have on the feet.
I don't think Chiesa's game plan for this fight is in doubt. He's averaging 3.39 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Holland defends the takedown at a woeful 50-percent clip. We've seen Kevin pinned to the mat for long stretches at a time, particularly against strong wrestlers, and one well-timed Chiesa takedown could very easily be the difference in a bout scheduled for the three rounds.
There's zero doubt Holland possesses a dynamic skill set, especially on the feet, that Chiesa can't match, but Michael has a clear path to victory in this fight, and that path also happens to be Holland's greatest weakness.
I have no strong opinion on this fight either way, but you know Holland is going to be presented openings on the feet. I'm less confident in Chiesa's ability to get it to the mat, even if that's clearly in his arsenal. I'll take Holland.
UFC 291 PICK: Holland
Other Bouts
Welterweight
Gabriel Bonfim (14-0-0) v. Trevin Giles (16-4-0)
DK Salaries: Bonfim ($9,200), Giles ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Bonfim (-315), Giles (+260)
Odds to Finish: -360
UFC 291 PICK: Bonfim
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis (26-11-0, 1NC) v. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (21-9-1)
DK Salaries: Lewis ($7,700), Rogerio de Lima ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Lewis (+155), Rogerio de Lima (-180)
Odds to Finish: -550
UFC 291 PICK: Rogerio de Lima
Middleweight
Roman Kopylov (10-2-0) v. Claudio Ribeiro (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Kopylov ($9,000), Ribeiro ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Kopylov (-220), Ribeiro (+180)
Odds to Finish: -275
UFC 291 PICK: Kopylov
Welterweight
Jake Matthews (18-6-0) v. Darrius Flowers
DK Salaries: Matthews ($9,300), Flowers ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Matthews (-295), Flowers (+220)
Odds to Finish: -300
UFC 291 PICK: Matthews
Flyweight
C.J. Vergara (11-4-1) v. Vinicius Salvador (14-5-0)
DK Salaries: Vergara ($8,700), Salvador ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Vergara (-160), Salvador (+130)
Odds to Finish: -200
UFC 291 PICK: Salvador
Welterweight
Matthew Semelsberger (11-5-0) v. Uros Medic (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Semelsberger ($8,600), Medic ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Semelsberger (-190), Medic (+160)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC 291 PICK: Semelsberger
Women's Flyweight
Miranda Maverick (13-5-0) v. Priscila Cachoeira (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Maverick ($9,400), Cachoeira ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Maverick (-335), Cachoeria (+260)
Odds to Finish: -135
UFC 291 PICK: Maverick
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 291 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
