This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 76 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $500k UFC Throwdown Special with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Sean Strickland (26-5-0) v. Abusupiyan Magomedov (25-4-1)
DK Salaries: Strickland ($8,500), Magomedov ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Strickland (-175), Magomedov (+145)
Odds to Finish: -150
A loser of back-to-back fights to Alex Pereira (knockout) and Jared Cannonier (unanimous decision), Strickland moved up to light heavyweight this past January and took a five-round main event unanimous decision from Nassourdine Imavov. The fight came together late, with Strickland replacing Kelvin Gastelum, and he performed admirably. Still, it's clear his home is at 185 pounds, the division he will be competing in Saturday.
Magomedov has 30 professional fights under his belt and is already 32 years of age, so he is by no means a "prospect" in the traditional sense, but plenty of knowledgeable people feel his upside is through the roof. Of course, he's a total unknown at this point considering his UFC career has lasted all of one fight and 19 seconds -- a knockout win over Dustin Stoltzfus in his company debut last September.
As countless opponents have found out first hand, Strickland is one of the most difficult guys in the company to fight at 185 pounds. He doesn't do much inside the Octagon, preferring to sit back and let his opposition lead the dance. Sean is more than content to counter with his jab in hopes of scoring points with the judges. Strickland has landed at least 152 total strikes in three of his past four fights, with the lone exception being the loss to Pereira which ended in less than three minutes.
Anyone saying they have any idea what to expect from Magomedov here is blowing smoke. He spent time with the PFL in 2018, at which point he fought five times in less than six months. He went 3-1-1 during that stretch, but it's impossible to get a feel for a guy when they are competing so often without a full training camp under their belt.
One thing that is for certain is that Magomedov has the size to compete at middleweight. He's 6-foot-2, which is an inch taller than Strickland. Going point-for-point with Sean on the feet is a losing proposition, so expect Magomedov and his team to throw a wrinkle or two at the veteran.
Ultimately, this is a case of me having to see Magomedov defeat a high-end opponent with the UFC before I can pick him. Strickland has baffled countless opponents inside the Octagon, and while he isn't on the same level as the top guys in the division, he's not far off. Maybe Magomedov is as good, or better, but one 19-second knockout win over Stoltzfus doesn't tell us that.
UFC VEGAS 76 PICK: Strickland
Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Damir Ismagulov (24-2-0) v. Grant Dawson (19-1-1)
DK Salaries: Ismagulov ($8,200), Dawson ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Ismagulov (-110), Dawson (-110)
Odds to Finish: +140
This is one of the best under-the-radar fights in quite a while and as close to a pick 'em as you will ever see.
Ismagulov won his first five UFC bouts, all via decision, before being swept on the scorecards in a fight against rising 155-pound stud Arman Tsarukyan last December. Unlike many Russian fighters we see these days, Ismagulov relies more on his power than grappling. I've been impressed with what I've seen thus far.
Dawson is undefeated in eight UFC bouts, posting a 7-0-1 record. He has four submission victories and a knockout in there, so unlike Ismagulov, he's been a finisher. Also unlike his opponent, Dawson is heavily reliant on his wrestling game for success.
Dawson has four career wins via knockout and thirteen via submission. Ismagulov has a dozen via knockout and just one via submission. This is a true contrast in styles.
Grant is averaging 3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes. He figures to be the one that will be looking to get this fight to the mat. Damir's takedown defense has been solid to date, checking in at 75 percent.
It's worth noting that virtually all of Ismagulov's knockouts came early in his career. His finishing power hasn't translated since arriving in the UFC, and that's concerning.
I keep coming back to the fact Ismauglov hasn't been able to put away his opposition since joining the UFC. That becomes more of an issue when you start facing better opponents. We know Dawson's high-energy pace and grappling game will be there. Can Ismagulov consistently land if Dawson is in his face for 15 minutes? I have my doubts.
Toss in the (very) minor savings Dawson provides and he's the pick, but this one could truly go either way. It's the fight I am most looking forward to on the entire card.
UFC VEGAS 76 PICK: Dawson
Welterweight
Max Griffin (19-9-0) v. Michael Morales (14-0-0)
DK Salaries: Griffin ($7,200), Morales ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Griffin (+200), Morales (-250)
Odds to Finish: -120
This is your classic veteran v. prospect matchup.
Griffin, the veteran, has been on a decent run of late. He's won three of four, with the lone setback being a split decision against a tough opponent in Neil Magny. Griffin has slightly above-average power, can wrestle if needed and is durable, having been stopped just once in nearly 30 professional fights. The fact he'll be 38 years of age in late-November is concerning, but he's already exceeded my expectations for him.
Morales, the prospect, will be looking to keep his undefeated professional record in tact. Having turned just 23 years of age in late-June, Morales is one of the best bets moving forward at 170 pounds. He took a unanimous decision on Dana White's Contender Series in September 2021 and has gone on to knock out Adam Fugitt and Trevin Giles in his first two official bouts with the company.
Morales is listed as 6-foot on the UFC website, but it sure feels as if it's taller than that. He's long and lanky and will enter with a three-inch reach edge over Griffin.
Morales overwhelmed both Fugitt and Giles on the feet. He's going to have a significantly more difficult time doing that against Griffin. Max excels in a brawl and has displayed a constant ability to fight through pressure. He's also very strong and difficult to get the better of in tight.
The obvious game plan for Morales is to try to keep this fight at distance and use his long limbs to pick Griffin apart. I'm skeptical he will be able to do that on a consistent basis given how aggressive is, but the youngster should have enough to ultimately win a decision.
That said, I imagine Griffin puts forth a better effort than the Vegas odds would lead you to believe. It's awfully difficult to put him away in a hurry.
UFC VEGAS 76 PICK: Morales
Heavyweight
Alexandr Romanov (16-2-0) v. Blagoy Ivanov (19-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Romanov ($8,300), Ivanov ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Romanov (-140), Ivanov (+115)
Odds to Finish: -170
Romanov made a name for himself earning five straight victories to begin his UFC run, including four via stoppage (three submissions, one knockout) , but the good times ended once the competition level increased. Romanov dropped a majority decision to Marcin Tybura last August before being knocked out by Alexander Volkov in just over two minutes this past March. The heavyweight division is not deep, but Romanov could be fighting for his job on Saturday.
Ivanov's story is well documented. He was stabbed in a bar fight in his native Bulgaria back in 2012 and nearly died. He returned to win the WSOF (now PFL) Heavyweight Championship in June 2015 and successfully defended the title four times before joining the UFC. He's 3-4 with the company, including losing three of his past four, although two of those setbacks (Derrick Lewis, Augusto Sakai) came via split decision.
On paper, this seems like a terrible matchup for Romanov. He's known as a knockout artist with crazy stopping power in his hands. Ten of his first dozen pro fights ended in first-round stoppage. He also has questionable cardio, at best, and figures to be in significant trouble if this bout gets past the opening round.
Enter Ivanov, who is legitimately one of the toughest men alive. He has never been stopped via strikes in 26 professional bouts despite taking countless beatings over the years that would have immediately fell any mere mortal.
Ivanov will be 37 years of age in October and his durability could go in an instant, but I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt until we see otherwise.
Getting Ivanov at plus money and under $8,000 on DK seems like a gift too good to be true. I'll roll the dice that he is able to survive Romanov's early onslaught and win the bout in the latter stages.
UFC VEGAS 76 PICK: Ivanov
Other Bouts
Women's Flyweight
Ariane Lipski (15-8-0) v. Melissa Gatto (8-1-2)
DK Salaries: Lipski ($7,500), Gatto ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Lipski (+185), Gatto (-250)
Odds to Finish: -110
UFC VEGAS 76 PICK: Gatto
Lightweight
Ismael Bonfim (19-3-0) v. Benoit Saint-Denis (10-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Bonfim ($9,200), Saint Denis ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Bonfim (-350), Saint Denis (+260)
Odds to Finish: -175
UFC VEGAS 76 PICK: Bonfim
Middleweight
Brunno Ferreira (10-0-0) v. Nursulton Ruziboev (34-8-2)
DK Salaries: Ferreira ($8,900), Ruziboev ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Ferreira (-190), Ruziboev (+160)
Odds to Finish: -600
UFC VEGAS 76 PICK: Ferreira
Welterweight
Kevin Lee (18-7-0) v. Rinat Fakhretdinov (20-1-0)
DK Salaries: Lee ($7,400), Fakhretdinov ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Lee (+160), Fakhretdinov (-190)
Odds to Finish: -100
UFC VEGAS 76 PICK: Fakhretdinov
Featherweight
Joanderson Brito (14-3-1) v. Westin Wilson (16-7-0)
DK Salaries: Brito ($9,600), Wilson ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Brito (-1100), Wilson (+675)
Odds to Finish: -700
UFC VEGAS 76 PICK: Brito
Women's Featherweight
Yana Santos (14-7-0, 1NC) v. Karol Rosa (16-5-0)
DK Salaries: Santos ($7,600), Rosa ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Santos (+125), Rosa (-155)
Odds to Finish: +205
UFC VEGAS 76 PICK: Santos
Lightweight
Guram Kutateladze (12-3-0) v. Elves Brener (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Kutateladze ($9,400), Brener ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Kutateladze (-650), Brener (+425)
Odds to Finish: -125
UFC VEGAS 76 PICK: Kutateladze
Women's Flyweight
Luana Carolina (8-4-0) v. Ivana Petrovic (6-0-0)
DK Salaries: Carolina ($7,300), Petrovic ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Carolina (+185), Petrovic (-225)
Odds to Finish: +150
UFC VEGAS 76 PICK: Petrovic
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 76 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
