This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 77 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $700k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Women's Bantamweight
Holly Holm (15-6-0) v. Mayra Bueno Silva (10-2-1)
DK Salaries: Holm ($8,600), Bueno Silva ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Holm (-150), Bueno Silva (+125)
Odds to Finish: +135
Now 41 years of age, Holm continues to get notable fights. She's 3-1 in her past four bouts, with the lone setback being a split decision defeat to Ketlen Vieira in May 2022. Holm keeps herself in great shape, and I see zero reason she can't continue to try to outpoint her opposition in kickboxing matches for at least another few years. That being said, Holly has no means of generating secondary offense, and that's going to hurt her down the line.
Bueno Silva was scheduled to face Miesha Tate in early-June. Tate withdrew, Holm stepped in, and the fight was pushed back about six weeks and given a headline spot. Stylistically, Bueno Silva is essentially the exact opposite of Holm. Her striking is well below-average, as she has just one knockout win in her pro career, but the Brazilian has seven career wins via submission despite averaging a measly 0.38 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Bueno Silva is at risk of getting lapped by Holm for as long as this fight remains standing. Holly's grappling will never be on the same level as her striking, but she's deceptively strong and a much better defensive wrestler than offensive one. Sure, Mayra is going to have an edge on the mat, but how will she get it there?
To illustrate how much Bueno Silva struggles striking wise, she averages 4.2 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 4.71. Holly is much more volume than power on the feet, and I could see her landing a countless number of strikes if Bueno Silva isn't able to get this fight to the mat.
Holm is at the stage of her career that I'm actively looking for reasons to pick against her, but I can't come up with a good one here. She's been submitted just once in 21 professional fights, the gap in competition level each woman has faced is as wide as the Atlantic Ocean, and Bueno Silva's recent three-fight win streak came against Lina Lansberg, Stephanie Egger and Wu Yanan.
Maybe Bueno Silva is better than I think, or maybe Holm will suddenly fall off at her advanced age, but I'm taking the latter here in what was an easy pick.
UFC VEGAS 77 PICK: Holm
Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Albert Duraev (16-4-0) v. Jun Yong Park (16-5-0)
DK Salaries: Duraev ($7,700), Park ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Duraev (+130), Park (-160)
Odds to Finish: -105
By no means a title contender, Duraev is a guy I've always had time for at 185 pounds. He picked up a first-round submission win on Dana White's Contender Series in September 2021 and has gone on to win two of his first three official bouts with the UFC. Duraev's ceiling is pretty low given he's already 34 years of age, but he's perfectly fine middleweight depth for a company that holds an event nearly every week.
Park has very (very) quietly won six of seven dating back to November 2019. The first four of those wins came via decision, while the last two have come via submission. Included in that stretch are victories over two men who recently fought each other, Eryk Anders and Marc-Andre Barriault. Park -- aged 32 -- is in a very similar spot to Duraev. He's a perfectly solid middleweight without much long-term potential despite his recent string of success.
All four of Duraev's defeats have come via knockout, but he has just one KO setback in the past nine-plus years. Most fighters don't improve durability wise as they age, so that will be something to keep an eye on with Albert, even if it hasn't been an issue of late, and even if Park isn't an opponent known for his power.
The winner here is likely to be the man that is able to remain upright. Both are averaging north of two takedowns per 15 minutes, but Park is defending the takedown at a reasonable 70-percent clip, while Duraev is down at 50 percent. One successful try could easily be the difference in a tightly contested bout.
I don't have a huge feel for this fight one way or the other. Duraev's lack of durability scares me however, which makes me lean in Park's direction. Even though he's not the pick, I don't have any problem whatsoever using Albert as a cheap salary option to fill out your lineup.
UFC VEGAS 77 PICK: Park
Heavyweight
Walt Harris (13-10-0, 1NC) v. Josh Parisian (15-6-0)
DK Salaries: Harris ($8,900), Parisian ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Harris (-160), Parisian (+130)
Odds to Finish: -315
Editor's Note: Since posting, the fight between Harris and Parisian has been scrapped due to a USADA issue on Harris' end. Here are a few more details from the man himself:
— Walt Harris (@thebigticket205) July 12, 2023
Now 40 years of age and the loser of three in a row, all via knockout, Harris will be fighting for the first time since June 2021. His last win came in July 2019. Walt is universally respected throughout the sport and once upon a time, had well above average athleticism for a big man. The power is also real, as are the durability issues. It's impossible to know what to expect from Harris moving forward, although I'm not overly optimistic.
That said, Parisian makes plenty of sense in terms of an opponent. Josh earned his UFC opportunity with a first-round knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2020. He has since gone on to drop three of his first five official fights with the company, alternating losses and wins in each bout.
Parisian is your typically brawling heavyweight. He has power and a limited secondary offensive arsenal. To date, Parisian has been fairly durable, being stopped via strikes just twice in more than 20 professional fights. He certainly has an edge over Harris in that area.
Looking at this fight from a big-picture point of view, too many things going on with Harris worry me. The time off is highly concerning for a man that is now 40 years old. The lack of durability is an issue. Say what you will about Parisian, but he knows where his bread is buttered, and he's a much better bet to hold up under fire than Harris.
When push comes to shove, the massive gap in DK salaries between the two is far too much to ignore. Getting a fighter for $7,300 when they are only a +130 underdog on the Vegas line is exceptional value. Especially in this fight where there projects to be a ton of offense generated.
It's certainly possible Harris looks refreshed after his sabbatical and uses his speed and footwork to blow Parisian out of the water, but the value is clearly on the latter, making it the correct play regardless of the end result.
UFC VEGAS 77 PICK: Parisian
Women's Featherweight
Norma Dumont (9-2-0) v. Chelsea Chandler (5-1-0)
DK Salaries: Dumont ($8,400), Chandler ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Dumont (-145), Chandler (+120)
Odds to Finish: +160
Dumont has quietly been on a run of late, winning five of six dating back to November 2020. While the record is strong, a deep dive into the numbers reveals some concerns. All five of the wins have come via decision (as did the defeat), and Dumont missed weight for two of those bouts. Dumont is an underrated athlete, but the fact she doesn't have a knockout win in her pro career is highly concerning, as is the fact she has just 11 pro bouts under her belt despite the fact she will be turning 33 years of age this coming October.
A long-time member of the Invicta roster, Chandler has also won five in a row, sporting an undefeated record since dropping her pro debut back in March 2018. Chandler made her UFC debut last October and knocked out Julija Stoliarenko in just over four minutes in a 140-pound catchweight bout. She earned a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus for her efforts.
This is not a deep card, but this would seem to be a particularly difficult fight to get a handle on. The two women are nearly the same exact age. Chandler is going to have an edge on the feet, while Dumont should have a decided edge on the mat.
The one significant factor in Dumont's favor is the level of competition in which she has faced. The likes of Karol Rosa, Macy Chiasson, Aspen Ladd, Felicia Spencer and Megan Anderson are all considerably better than anyone Chandler has seen to date.
I know Chandler blew through Stoliarenko, but we are probably in for an extended fight here. Dumont has been knocked out once, the only time either woman has been finished in nearly 20 combined professional bouts.
I don't think either woman is an attractive DK play, although I would lean Dumont to win simply because of the competition she has gone up against. Stuff like that matters when everything else seems to be virtually even.
UFC VEGAS 77 PICK: Dumont
Other Bouts
Welterweight
Jack Della Maddalena (14-2-0) v. Bassil Hafez (8-3-1)
DK Salaries: Della Maddalena ($9,700), Hafez ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Della Maddalena (-600), Hafez (+425)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC VEGAS 77 PICK: Della Maddalena
Lightweight
Ottman Azaitar (13-1-0) v. Francisco Prado (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Azaitar ($8,000), Prado ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Azaitar (+100), Prado (-120)
Odds to Finish: -275
UFC VEGAS 77 PICK: Azaitar
Lightweight
Terrance McKinney (13-5-0) v. Nazim Sadykhov (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: McKinney ($7,500), Sadykhov ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: McKinney (+125), Sadykhov (-145)
Odds to Finish: -550
UFC VEGAS 77 PICK: Sadykhov
Featherweight
Tucker Lutz (12-3-0) v. Melsik Baghdasaryan (7-2-0)
DK Salaries: Lutz ($7,000), Baghdasaryan ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Lutz (+145), Baghdasaryan (-175)
Odds to Finish: -115
UFC VEGAS 77 PICK: Baghdasaryan
Women's Strawweight
Viktoriia Dudakova (6-0-0) v. Istela Nunes (6-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Dudakova ($9,300), Nunes ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Dudakova (-210), Nunes (+165)
Odds to Finish: -120
UFC VEGAS 77 PICK: Dudakova
Featherweight
Austin Lingo (9-2-0) v. Melquizael Costa (19-6-0)
DK Salaries: Lingo ($7,100), Costa ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Lingo (+170), Costa (-210)
Odds to Finish: -120
UFC VEGAS 77 PICK: Costa
Lightweight
Evan Elder (7-2-0) v. Genaro Valdez (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Elder ($9,400), Valdez ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Elder (-300), Valdez (+230)
Odds to Finish: -260
UFC VEGAS 77 PICK: Elder
Flyweight
Tyson Nam (21-13-1) v. Azat Maksum (16-0-0)
DK Salaries: Nam ($6,600), Maksum ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Nam (+300), Maksum (-400)
Odds to Finish: -175
UFC VEGAS 77 PICK: Maksum
Lightweight
Alex Munoz (6-2-0) v. Carl Deaton (17-6-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Munoz ($8,300), Deaton ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Munoz (-165), Deaton (+135)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC VEGAS 77 PICK: Deaton
Women's Bantamweight
Ashlee Evans-Smith (6-5-0) v. Ailin Perez (7-2-0)
DK Salaries: Evans-Smith ($7,400), Perez ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Evans-Smith (+155), Perez (-190)
Odds to Finish: +120
UFC VEGAS 77 PICK: Perez
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 77 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
