Drake's Takes: UFC Orlando Thompson vs. Holland

Drake's Takes: UFC Orlando Thompson vs. Holland

This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.

The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Orlando card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.

Yazmin Jauregui (9-0-0) v. Istela Nunes (6-3-0, 1NC)

Yazmin Jauregui - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ High volume 
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins

Istela Nunes - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 6 wins

DFS Perspective: Nunes is a sharp striker, but I do not think she will land enough to win a decision. Jauregui should have the advantage everywhere and is likelier to record a finish.

UFC Orlando Pick: Jauregui

Marcelo Rojo (16-9-0) v. Francis Marshall (6-0-0)

Marcelo Rojo - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins

Francis Marshall - Height: 5'9" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins

DFS Perspective: Marshall is making his UFC debut fresh from a win on the Contender Series. The newcomer will have a significant edge everywhere the fight goes. However, he will have less experience than Rojo and potentially less power. Rojo is a dangerous striker and always live for a knockout. 

UFC Orlando Pick: Marshall

Natan Levy (7-1-0) v. Genaro Valdez (10-1-0)

Natan Levy - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins

Genaro Valdez - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins

DFS Perspective: The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Levy. He could wear down the tiring Valdez with takedowns and control and cruise to a decision. Valdez has an average fight time of 4 minutes and 30 seconds and will apply a torrid pace and pressure from the bell. I do not see Levy lasting past the first round if he cannot find a takedown first. 

UFC Orlando Pick: Valdez

Tracy Cortez (10-1-0) v. Amanda Ribas (11-3-0)

Tracy Cortez - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 10 wins

Amanda Ribas - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins

DFS Perspective: This fight is a real 50-50. Both ladies are tough as nails and will be a great challenge to each other. I favor Cortez slightly on the feet and Ribas significantly on the mat. I will take Ribas, but I would not be surprised by any outcome.

UFC Orlando Pick: Ribas

Darren Elkins (28-10-0) v. Jonathan Pearce (13-4-0)

Darren Elkins - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 27 wins

Jonathan Pearce - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins

DFS Perspective: Pearce should have his way in what looks like a set-up fight. Lock him in.

UFC Orlando Pick: Pearce

Michael Johnson (21-18-0) v. Marc Diakiese (16-5-0)

Michael Johnson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume 
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 20 wins

Marc Diakiese - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 16 wins

DFS Perspective: Johnson looks washed and does not have much left. I expect Diakiese to continue the wrestling dominance displayed in his last two fights en route to another dominant decision. 

UFC Orlando Pick: Diakiese

Clay Guida (37-19-0) v. Scott Holtzman (14-5-0)

Clay Guida - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 37 wins

Scott Holtzman - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 14 wins

DFS Perspective: This should be a close fight between two aging vets. If Guida uses his wrestling, I would tab him a 30-27 winner. If the fight stays on the feet, I expect it to be a close back-and-forth affair. Holtzman has been knocked out in consecutive fights and has not fought since April 2021, so my lean will be the dog.

UFC Orlando Pick: Guida

Angela Hill (14-12-0) v. Emily Ducote (12-6-0)

Angela Hill - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ High volume 
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 14 wins

Emily Ducote - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins

DFS Perspective: I expect most of this fight to take place on the feet. Both ladies can strike at a high pace, which will come down to execution. If Hill mixes in clinch work and takedowns, I expect her to win a decision. Ducote throws more volume, so the longer the fight is upright, the better for her. Not confident with either fighter. 

UFC Orlando Pick: Ducote

Niko Price (15-6-0, 2 NC) v. Philip Rowe (9-3-0)

Niko Price - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ High volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins

Philip Rowe - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins

DFS Perspective: This should be an excellent striking match for as long as it lasts. I expect both guys to come out swinging, with one going down early. Rowe has not impressed me in his UFC wins, and I expect Price to overwhelm him early with pressure. Either guy could record a finish, but I will side with the favorite as the better overall fighter.

UFC Orlando Pick: Price

Eryk Anders (14-7-0) v. Kyle Daukaus (11-3-0, 1NC)

Eryk Anders - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 14 wins

Kyle Daukaus - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins

DFS Perspective: Anders' only path to victory is via knockout. Daukaus will throw more volume and has a significantly better ground game. I expect him to get back in the win column with a dominant decision or submission.

UFC Orlando Pick: Daukaus

Jack Hermannson (23-7-0) v. Roman Dolidze (11-1-0)

Jack Hermansson - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ High volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 23 wins

Roman Dolidze - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins

DFS Perspective: Hermansson looked like his usual self in his most recent win but will need all of his tools if he is going to stop Dolidze in his tracks. Dolidze is coming off back-to-back first-round knockouts and has looked unstoppable in three straight. Hermansson should have an edge in volume, but that might be it. I expect Dolidze to continue his rampage and end another fight early.

UFC Orlando Pick: Dolidze

Tai Tuivasa (15-4-0) v. Sergei Pavlovich (16-1-0)

Tai Tuivasa - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume 
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins

Sergei Pavlovich - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 84" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 16 wins

DFS Perspective: I do not see this fight making it out of the first. Tuivasa is a free swinger with considerable power, while Pavlovich has won four straight by first-round knockout and will sport a massive reach advantage. Pavlovich comes out fast, and I expect him to overwhelm Tuivasa quickly en route to another first-round knockout. 

UFC Orlando Pick: Pavlovich

Matheus Nicolau (18-3-1) v. Matt Schnell (16-6-0)

Matheus Nicolau - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ High volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 18 wins

Matt Schnell - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins

DFS Perspective: This fight is much closer than the odds are leading on. Both guys are dangerous on the mat, while Nicolau has superior striking. He will be the more technical of the two and only needs to avoid making mistakes. Schnell is a free-swinger, making him hittable. He also tends to over-pursue on the mat, which can cause him to fall into a challenging position. I like Schnell as a dart throw for GPP this week. However, Nicolau is the deserved favorite. 

UFC Orlando Pick: Nicolau

Bryan Barberena (18-8-0) v. Rafael dos Anjos (31-14-0)

Bryan Barberena - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" - Southpaw
~ High volume 
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins

Rafael dos Anjos - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 31 wins

DFS Perspective: If this is a 15-minute striking match, I expect it to be very close, with Barberena potentially stealing two rounds with volume. If RDA uses his wrestling, I expect this fight to be one-sided, with RDA winning a comfortable decision. 

UFC Orlando Pick: dos Anjos

Stephen Thompson (16-6-1) v. Kevin Holland (23-8-0)

Stephen Thompson - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume 
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins

Kevin Holland - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 16 wins

DFS Perspective: I am torn on the main event. Thompson is getting his wish to fight another striker, though Holland could attempt takedowns throughout the fight. Thompson has struggled in his last couple of fights against grapplers, and it is difficult knowing where his head is coming into this fight. Holland will have a reach advantage and is the wilder of the two. If he gets complacent, I expect Thompson to pick him apart with leg kicks and end his night early. Holland is right to be favored, but if we see the Thompson from three fights ago, Holland will be in for a long night.

UFC Orlando Pick: Thompson

 

For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our DraftKings MMA preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.

FANDUEL MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.

DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
  • Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
  • A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
  • A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MMA Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MMA fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Drake Burden
Drake is a proven DFS winner with multiple four-figure paydays under his belt. He took an interest to writing MMA during the pandemic and is active in various Discords and other social media communities.
MMA Best Bets: Chris' Picks, Odds and Predictions for UFC 283
MMA Best Bets: Chris' Picks, Odds and Predictions for UFC 283
UFC 283 DFS Preview & Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC 283 DFS Preview & Predictions: The MMA Mashup
RotoWire Expert Picks: UFC 283 Main Card
RotoWire Expert Picks: UFC 283 Main Card
Fight IQ: UFC 283 Preview, Teixeira vs. Hill
Fight IQ: UFC 283 Preview, Teixeira vs. Hill
Drake's Takes: UFC 283 Teixeira vs. Hill
Drake's Takes: UFC 283 Teixeira vs. Hill
MMA Best Bets: Cole's Picks, Odds, and Predictions for UFC 283
MMA Best Bets: Cole's Picks, Odds, and Predictions for UFC 283