This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 66 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Sergey Morozov (18-5-0) v. Journey Newson (10-3-0)
Sergey Morozov - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 18 wins
Journey Newson - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect Morozov to have his way in this one. Newson recorded his first UFC win last time out but has been largely unimpressive. Morozov should be better everywhere and dictate where the fight goes. If he chains takedowns and accrues control time, he will smash value. He will also be striking with more volume and is more dangerous on the feet than people give him credit for.
UFC Vegas 66 Pick: Morozov
David Dvorak (20-4-0) v. Manel Kape (17-6-0)
David Dvorak - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 16 finishes in 20 wins
Manel Kape - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: The odds should be much closer for this fight. Both guys have incredible talent, and it could go either way. Kape will have an edge on the feet with striking and power. Dvorak will have an edge on the mat with grappling and is a solid technical striker in his own right. Dvorak does tend to leave his head open when throwing kicks, so a knockout is possible, but I think it would take an onslaught of strikes, as Dvorak's chin is solid. Kape can struggle with his cardio or find himself in a tricky position on the mat.
UFC Vegas 66 Pick: Dvorak
Bryan Battle (8-1-0) v. Rinat Fakhretdinov (19-1-0)
Bryan Battle - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
Rinat Fakhretdinov - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Another fight that should be tightly contested and could go either way. Both guys have solid striking; Battle will likely have more volume, while Fakhretdinov will have more power. Each has excellent grappling and submission skills as well. Fakhretdinov tends to be wild, making him hittable, and that makes the difference in this fight.
UFC Vegas 66 Pick: Battle
Rafa Garcia (13-3-0) v. Maheshate (9-1-0)
Rafa Garcia - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
Hayisaer Maheshate - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Maheshate is the young up-and-comer that many are excited about, especially after his huge knockout win in his debut. Garcia continues to impress with each outing, and I expect him to expose some of the weaknesses of the young fighter. Though at a size disadvantage, I expect Garcia to take him down several times and keep control on the mat. At that point, he could win by decision or find a finish somewhere in the 15 minutes.
UFC Vegas 66 Pick: Garcia
Said Nurmagomedov (16-2) v. Saidyokub Kakhramonov (10-2)
Said Nurmagomedov - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 16 wins
Saidyokub Kakhramonov - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this fight to be another close contest. Nurmagomedov will have a small advantage on the feet with volume and power, while Kakhramonov will have a slight edge with pressure and grappling. This could easily be a Fight of the Night contender and should be a blast to watch. I like the tenacity of the dog and will roll with Kakhramonov to keep his win streak rolling.
UFC Vegas 66 Pick: Kakhramonov
Julian Marquez (9-3-0) v. Deron Winn (7-3-0)
Julian Marquez - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
Deron Winn - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 4 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: If Winn had a little more size, I would be tempted to roll with him. He has solid power and excellent chain wrestling but may struggle against the much bigger Marquez. Marquez tends to roll with the punches and go with the flow of the fight, which could cause him some issues if he gets taken down. He will have a solid edge on the feet with power and should be able to put his size advantage to good use. If Winn can keep control, he could surprise with an upset, but Marquez also has solid grappling and could find himself with a choke early.
UFC Vegas 66 Pick: Marquez
Jake Matthews (18-5-0) v. Matthew Semelsberger (10-4-0)
Jake Matthews - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
Matthew Semelsberger - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Unless Semelsberger scores an early knockout, I do not see him winning this fight. Matthews should have the edge everywhere, but power and should dictate where the fight goes. I expect him to come out hunting for takedowns early, where he could dominate control or find an early finish.
UFC Vegas 66 Pick: Matthews
Cheyanne Vlismas (7-2-0) v. Cory McKenna (7-2-0)
Cheyanne Vlismas - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 63" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 7 wins
Cory McKenna - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 58" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: I see two outcomes for this fight. Vlismas dominates on the feet with power and volume, or McKenna finds success with takedowns and breaks the slate on the mat. Vlismas trains with some big-time grapplers, so I would expect her to be stuffing most takedowns, taking this one home.
UFC Vegas 66 Pick: Vlismas
Cody Brundage (8-2-0) v. Michal Oleksiejczuk (17-5-0)
Cody Brundage - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Michal Oleksiejczuk - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Brundage gets a step up in competition for this one, and unless he can chain takedowns, he will likely struggle. Oleksiejczuk is a far superior striker and should dominate on the feet. His takedown defense and cardio can be questionable at times, making Brundage a solid dart play to throw into lineups.
UFC Vegas 66 Pick: Oleksiejczuk
Drew Dober (25-11-0) v. Bobby Green (29-13-1)
Drew Dober - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 25 wins
Bobby Green - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 29 wins
DFS Perspective: Another potential Fight of the Night candidate between two veterans of the sport. These guys fight with very similar styles. I would give Dober the power edge and Green the volume edge. Both guys can wrestle, but I expect this fight to take place primarily on the feet. Dober is the better fighter and is my pick to win.
UFC Vegas 66 Pick: Dober
Alex Caceres (19-13-0) v. Julian Erosa (28-9-0)
Alex Caceres - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 19 wins
Julian Erosa - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 23 finishes in 28 wins
DFS Perspective: Erosa should be better everywhere this fight goes. Caceres could make things difficult if he applies constant forward pressure, but Erosa has a solid counter waiting for him. I expect Erosa to overwhelm Caceres early and record another finish.
UFC Vegas 66 Pick: Erosa
Amir Albazi (15-1-0) v. Alessandro Costa (12-2-0)
Amir Albazi - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
Alessandro Costa - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Costa is making his debut on short notice against the best competition he will have faced. No fight is a cakewalk, but Albazi should have his way with Costa, and I would not be surprised if he finished him early.
UFC Vegas 66 Pick: Albazi
Arman Tsarukyan (18-3-0) v. Damir Ismagulov (24-1-0)
Arman Tsarukyan - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
Damir Ismagulov - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 13 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: This is one of the best fights on the card and should not disappoint fans. Both guys are top-tier fighters, and this clash almost seems too early. They have similar fighting styles, but I would give Tsarukyan the advantage just about everywhere, and he is more likely to record a finish. It is close, and I lean towards Tsarukyan, but I would not be surprised to see Ismagulov grind out a decision.
UFC Vegas 66 Pick: Tsarukyan
Jared Cannonier (15-6-0) v. Sean Strickland (25-4-0)
Jared Cannonier - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 77" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 15 wins
Sean Strickland - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 14 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be an absolute banger for as long as it lasts. I do not expect this to hit the mat very often and to remain a striking match until someone is finished. Cannonier will have a significant edge on the feet, while Strickland will have the edge in volume. Cannonier has the power to end it with one strike, but his sit-back and load-up approach could be costly. Strickland's volume could overwhelm Cannonier early if he is not careful.
UFC Vegas 66 Pick: Strickland
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our DraftKings MMA preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
