This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
UFC 316: MMA Betting Picks and Odds Insight
The UFC is in Newark, New Jersey on Saturday, June 7 for a solid UFC 316 pay-per-view card as two titles are on the line. In the main event, the bantamweight title is up for grabs, as Merab Dvalishvili rematches Sean O'Malley.
Below, I'll share my UFC 316 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Serghei Spivac (17-5) vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta (13-1)
UFC 316 features a ton of heavy favorites, which makes this card hard to bet straight or on underdogs. But, one favorite I like is Serghei Spivac in a heavyweight matchup against Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Spivac is a good wrestler, while Cortes-Acosta is a striker. However, the way to beat Spivac is to knock him out, and WCA doesn't have much KO power.
I like Spivac to be able to take Cortes-Acosta down and control him to likely win a decision, although getting a stoppage isn't out of the question.
UFC 316 Bet: Serghei Spivac (-142)
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Weight Class: Women's bantamweight
Julianna Pena (11-5) vs Kayla Harrison (18-1)
The co-main event of UFC 316 sees the women's bantamweight title on the line, and challenger Kayla Harrison is a massive favorite.
Although I admittedly think Harrison wins, the odds are crazy, which makes taking Pena -- at least a small shot -- well worth it. We have seen Harrison struggle in the later rounds, and if Pena can survive the first two or three rounds, she might be able to take over.
Pena is a dog and hard to put away, as that is how she beat Amanda Nunes. Her path to victory is in the championship rounds and putting Harrison out on the feet, or at least racking up the point to make a decision close. At +500, the odds are too high not to take a small shot on the champ.
UFC 316 Bet: Julianna Pena (+500)
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Weight Class: Bantamweight
Patchy Mix (20-1) vs Mario Bautista (15-2)
For my prop at UFC 316, I'm taking Patchy Mix and Mario Bautista to go the distance in their intriguing bantamweight bout.
Mix is making his UFC debut and is the former Bellator bantamweight champion. He is a great grappler, but his wrestling needs some work. Bautista, meanwhile, is a very well-rounded and durable fighter.
Both fighters are capable of going the distance, and Bautista isn't much of a finisher. Even if Mix gets Bautista on the ground, I trust Bautista is good enough in the grappling department to stay safe. When on the feet, Bautista will be able to land the better shots and also clinch up Mix to stall the fight to help it go the distance.
UFC 316 Bet: Patchy Mix & Mario Bautista goes the distance (-150)
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Weight Class: Lightweight & featherweight
Marquel Mederos (10-1) vs Mark Choinski (8-0)
Joo Sang Yoo (8-0) vs Jeka Saragih (14-4)
For my parlay at UFC 316, I'm taking Marquel Mederos and Joo Sang Yoo to get their hands raised.
Mederos takes on Choinski, who's taking this fight on short notice. Although he is undefeated, he hasn't fought a ton of great competition. Choinski should struggle to be able to get Mederos to the ground, while on the feet, Mederos is the much better striker. Look for Mederos to land damaging shots and potentially get a TKO, or at least a clear-cut decision win.
To close out the parlay, I'm taking Yoo to beat Jeka Saragih. Saragih isn't UFC-caliber, as he's 1-2 and coming off a first-round loss to Westin Wilson, who's also not UFC-caliber. Saragih doesn't have a great chin, so Yoo should be able to land something big and get an early KO to win his debut here in style.
UFC 316 Bet: Marquel Mederos & Joo Sang Yoo parlay (-137)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's 316 card.
- Serghei Spivac (-142)
- Julianna Pena (+500)
- Patchy Mix-Mario Bautista goes the distance (-150)
- Marquel Mederos & Joo Sang Yoo parlay (-137)
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