This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Saudi Arabia Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Saudi Arabia card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Long Xiao (26-8-0) v. Chang Ho Lee (9-1-0)
Long Xiao - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 26 wins
Chang Ho Lee - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Xiao is the more experienced fighter, but Lee is far more dangerous. Both are solid prospects with great all-around games. I would give Xiao a slightly better chance to win by decision and Lee a better chance to record a finish. This is a GPP fight, given how little we have seen of each fight, but the dog is my pick.
UFC Saudi Arabia Pick: Lee
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (8-0-0) v. Brendson Ribeiro (15-6-0)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
Brendson Ribeiro - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Ribeiro lost his UFC against a lesser opponent than Gadzhiyasulov, so I am not expecting much from him. Gadzhiyasulov makes a solid option for cash and GPP options, given his propensity to finish fights and Ribeiro's propensity to get finished. Gadzhiyasulov is one of the best plays on the slate.
UFC Saudi Arabia Pick: Gadzhiyasulov
Muin Gafurov (18-6-0) v. Kyung Ho Kang (19-10-0)
Muin Gafurov - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 18 wins
Kyung Ho Kang - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a solid fight to target for GPP contests, as someone is likely to get finished. Gaferov is dangerous but has struggled against low-level competition in the UFC. Kang should be better everywhere and is my pick to win.
UFC Saudi Arabia Pick: Kang
Rinat Fakhretdinov (22-2-1) v. Nicolas Dalby (23-4-1)
Rinat Fakhretdinov - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 21 wins
Nicolas Dalby - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: Dalby has won four straight fights and has never been finished in his professional career. Fakhredinov has been sensational since joining the UFC, even though his most recent fight was an unjust draw. Dalby is tough, but I expect him to struggle against the pressure of Fakhredinov. This is a good spot to measure where Fakhredinov is; I think he gets it done.
UFC Saudi Arabia Pick: Fakhredinov
Nasrat Haqparast (16-5-0) v. Jared Gordon (20-6-0)
Nasrat Haqparast - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
Jared Gordon - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight will likely be closer than the odds indicate. Both fighters are solid strikers with good power and high volume. The difference in this fight will likely be the four-inch reach advantage that Haqparast holds over Gordon. This fight could end early and score well, or reach the scorecards and be a lower-scoring decision.
UFC Saudi Arabia Pick: Haqparast
Sharaputdin Magomedov (12-0-0) v. Joilton Lutterbach (38-10-0)
Sharaputdin Magomedov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
Joilton Lutterbach - Height: 6'0" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 27 finishes in 38 wins
DFS Perspective: Magomedov is making his second UFC fight after a solid debut win. Lutterbach is making his UFC debut after an incredible 48 fights in other promotions. Magomedov is a scary fighter on the feet but does not offer much on the ground. He will have the edge anytime this is upright and could end it with any strike. Lutterbach's best opportunities will come on the mat. However, he also packs a punch with 14 knockouts, 12 in the first round. This is more of a GPP type of fight, and I would like to see more from Magomedov. I am going to side with the dog.
UFC Saudi Arabia Pick: Lutterbach
Johnny Walker (21-8-0) v. Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0)
Johnny Walker - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 82" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 21 wins
Volkan Oezdemir - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be a good test for Walker's IQ and whether it has improved. I see him losing this fight only by walking into a knockout. Oezdemir packs a punch but tends to be on the slower side of things. Walker will have the edge everywhere and will likely pull this one out.
UFC Saudi Arabia Pick: Walker
Muhammadjon Naimov (11-2-0) v. Felipe Lima (12-1-0)
Muhammadjon Naimov - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
Felipe Lima - Height: 5'6" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: I have watched the film on Lima and am still trying to figure out why his odds are so close to Naimov's. Naimov will be his biggest test to date and I doubt he will be able to deal with the suffocating wrestling approach Naimov is likely to employ. While Lima could score a flash knockout, we will likely see him struggle like a fish on its back. Naimov is one of my favorite plays on the slate and should go slightly less owned than most in his range.
UFC Saudi Arabia Pick: Naimov
Kelvin Gastelum (18-9-0) v. Daniel Rodriguez (17-4-0)
Kelvin Gastelum - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 18 wins
Daniel Rodriguez - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: This is not a fight I want to target a lot of. Neither guy scores well in DFS without an early finish, and I am not expecting one in his fight. Gastelum cruises at one speed, a defensive one with counters. Rodriguez is now 37 and has clearly slowed down over the last few fights, leaving little to rely on when he fights. Gastelum is the pick, but not a confident one.
UFC Saudi Arabia Pick: Gastelum
Sergei Pavlovich (18-2-0) v. Alexander Volkov (37-10-0)
Sergei Pavlovich - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 84" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 18 wins
Alexander Volkov - Height: 6'7" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 28 finishes in 37 wins
DFS Perspective: Pavlovich's six fight winning streak came to an end in his most recent fight, getting knocked out just over a minute into the first. Meanwhile, Volkov extended his win streak to three after a nasty Ezekiel Choke late in the second round of his most recent fight. The longer this fight goes, the more it likely favors Volkov. However, given the four-inch reach advantage and the blistering pressure Pavlovich immediately puts out, I expect him to start his first-round knockout streak back up.
UFC Saudi Arabia Pick: Pavlovich
Robert Whittaker (25-7-0) v. Ikram Aliskerov (15-1-0)
Robert Whittaker - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 25 wins
Ikram Aliskerov - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: I do not doubt that Aliskerov is an excellent fighter. However, this step up in competition is just a fight or two too soon. Whittaker has been at the top of the division for what seems like forever, is still just 33, and continues to show he belongs in title contention. He has only lost to current or past champions over the last ten years. I expect his game to be too refined for Aliskerov and for him to get this done in the championship rounds.
UFC Saudi Arabia Pick: Whittaker
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
